Global, Regional, and Urban Climate Effects of Air Pollutants
Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Stanford University Slide 2 Modeled CO 2 (g) and Modeled v Measured
Ocean pH 1751-2003 CO 2 (g) mixing ratio (ppmv) Surface ocean pH
Data from Friedli et al. (1986) and Keeling and Whorf (2003) Slide
3 Modeled Ocean Profiles 2004; 2104 Under SRES A1B Emission
Scenario Depth (m) Slide 4 Effect of CO 2 (g) on Atmospheric Acids
Mixing ratio (ppbv) Slide 5 Slide 6 Comparison of ff BC Climate
Responses 1. Jacobson (JGR 107, D19, 2002). Size resolved (1
distribution) multi-component aerosols, size-resolved cloud
formation on aerosols, size-resolved treatment of first and part of
second indirect effects, climatological snow/ice albedo, emissions
of Cooke et al. (1999), 2-D ocean module, many feedbacks. Fossil
fuel BC+OM: +0.3 K (5-y average) +0.35 K (last year) Range of all
simulations (+0.15 to +0.5) 2. Ibid. (JGR 2004, in press). Same as
(1) but treated first and second indirect effects, calculated
snow/ice albedo, used early Bond et al. (2004) inventory. Fossil
fuel + biofuel BC+OM: +0.27 K (10-y avg. snow contrib. +0.06 K) 3.
Ibid. Recent results. Same as (2) but used most recent Bond et al
(2004) emission,, used two distributions (emitted ff+bf BC+OM and
emitted other + heterocoagulated BC) and 10 layers of energy
diffusion to deep ocean. Fossil fuel + biofuel BC+OM: +0.29 K (6-y
avg.) Slide 7 Ten-Year-Avg. Globally-Averaged Temperature Profile
Differences Pressure (hPa) With snow/sea ice absorption and
with-w/o ff+bf BC+OM Pressure (hPa) Contribution of BC absorption
by snow/sea ice Slide 8 Temperature Changes Due to Eliminating
Emission of Anthropogenic CO 2, CH 4, and f.f. BC+OM Cooling (K)
after eliminating anthropogenic emission Slide 9 Observed and
Modeled Temp. Diff. w-w/o GHG and Aerosols Schneider and Held
(2001) Latitude (degrees) (4 y an. avg.) (January only Slide 10
Modeled (4 y avg.) Temp. Diff. w-w/o Anth. GHG alone Latitude
(degrees) Slide 11 Modeled (4 y avg.) and Radiosonde Vertical Temp.
(K) dif. w-w/o GHG and Aerosols Radiosonde data Angell et al.
(1999) Temperature deviation (K) Altitude (km) 300-100 mb 9-16 km
100-30 mb 16-24 km Slide 12 Feb. & Aug. California Column BC
Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 13 Column POM Dif.
w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 14 Column SOM Dif. w-w/o
Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 15 Column S(VI) Dif. w-w/o
Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 16 Column NO 3 - Dif. w-w/o
Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 17 Column NH 4 + Dif. w-w/o
Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 18 Column Aerosol LWC Dif.
w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 19 Column Total Aerosol
Dif. w-w/o Anth. Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 20 Aerosol 550 nm
Optical Depth Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 21
Cloud 550 nm Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)
Slide 22 Cloud 550 nm Scattering Optical Depth Profile Dif.
Pressure (hPa) Slide 23 Down-Up Surface Solar Radiation Dif. w-w/o
Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 24 Down-Up Surface Thermal-IR
Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 25
Irradiance Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa) Slide 26
Near-surface Temperature Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)
Slide 27 Zonal Temp. Profile Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Altitude (km)
Slide 28 Temperature Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa)
Slide 29 Near-surface RH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)
Slide 30 Zonal RH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Altitude (km) Slide 31 Cloud
LWC Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 32 Cloud Liquid
and Ice Profile Dif. Over California Pressure (hPa) Slide 33
Modeled vs. Measured Feb. 1999 Precipitation Latitude (degrees)
Slide 34 Modeled Feb. 1999 vs. Measured Feb. Clim. Prec. Latitude
(degrees) Data courtesy of Guido Franco Slide 35 Precipitation Dif.
w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 36 Baseline BC in
precipitation Latitude (degrees) Slide 37 SCAB Column Total Aerosol
Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 38 SCAB Aerosol
Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 39
SCAB Cloud Optical Depth Dif. w- w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees)
Slide 40 Cloud 550 nm Scattering Optical Depth Profile Dif.
Pressure (hPa) Slide 41 SCAB Down-Up Surface Solar Radiation Dif.
w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 42 SCAB Downward UV
Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 43 SCAB
Near-Surface OH Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 44
SCAB Down-Up Surface Thermal-IR Radiation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer.
Latitude (degrees) Slide 45 Irradiance Profile Dif. Over SCAB
Pressure (hPa) Slide 46 SCAB Near-Surface Temperature Dif. w-w/o
Anth.Aer. Latitude (degrees) Slide 47 Temperature Profile Dif. Over
SCAB Pressure (hPa) Slide 48 SCAB Baseline Precipitation Latitude
(degrees) Slide 49 SCAB Precipitation Dif. w-w/o Anth.Aer. Latitude
(degrees) Slide 50 Summary Globally-averaged surface ocean pH may
have decreased from about 8.25 to 8.14 from 1751 to 2004 Under the
SREAS A1B emission scenario, pH may decrease to 7.85 in 2100, for
an increase in the hydrogen ion by a factor of 2.5 since 1751.
Ocean acidification may increase concentrations of atmospheric
acids and decrease those of bases, although the magnitude is
uncertain. Three global simulation results suggest a warming due to
ff+bf BC of +0.25 to +0.3 K in the 5- to 10-year average with a
range of +0.15 K to +0.5 K Maximum warming and cooling due to
anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols exceed those of GHGs alone.
Aerosols act on top of GHGs to enhance extreme warm and cool
climate conditions. Modeled aerosol particles and gas-phase
precursors appear to decrease precipitation in mountainous regions
and increase it beyond the mountains, cool surface-air
temperatures, slightly increase atmospheric temperatures, reduce
solar and UV radiation and OH, and increase thermal-IR radiation to
the surface in California.
