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Demographics in Texas: Changes in Household Characteristics and Changes in Family Structure of the Dallas Area Dallas Bar Association - Family Law Section February 9, 2012 Dallas, TX

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Page 1: Demographics in Texas: Changes in Household ...txsdc.utsa.edu/Resources/Presentations/OSD/2012/2012_02...Demographics in Texas: Changes in Household Characteristics and Changes in

Demographics in Texas:

Changes in Household Characteristics

and Changes in Family Structure

of the Dallas Area

Dallas Bar Association -

Family Law Section

February 9, 2012

Dallas, TX

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Growing States, 2000-2010

2000

Population*

2010

Population*

Numerical

Change

2000-2010

Percent

Change

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

2

15.7% of numeric

change in U.S.

8.1% of U.S.

Population

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

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Percent Change

Due to

Year* Population

Numerical

Change**

Percent

Change

Natural

Increase

Net

Migration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year.

Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

** Change is from previous decade/time period

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

3

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to

2001

2001 to

2002

2002 to

2003

2003 to

2004

2004 to

2005

2005 to

2006

2006 to

2007

2007 to

2008

2008 to

2009

International

State-to-State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009

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Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population

Legend

-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

5

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

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Legend

0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

6

Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

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Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009

44%

24% 33%

28%

50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5% 18% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Net domesticmigration

Internationalmigration

Total

Other

Black

Hispanic

White

67% of all

migrants

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White 53%

NH Black 11%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White 45%

NH Black 11%

NH Other 6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic

Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic

Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

10

Texas Population Pyramid by White (non-Hispanic), 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

11

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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Percent Change

-21% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 81.8%

Number of People

82 - 9,999

10,000 - 24,999

25,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 4,092,459

Total Population by County, 2010

13

Total Population Population % Change, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

79 counties lost

population over

the decade

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Percent Change

-51.4% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 62.1%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010

14

Non-Hispanic White Hispanic

Percent Change

-29.4% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 99.9%

100% - 165.7%

Less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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Percent Change

-49% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 74.9%

75% - 3000%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010

15

Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian

Percent Change

-27.9% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 697%

less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections.

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

16

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

Anglo

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. 17

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040

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Percent Population Change for Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metro Area Counties, 1980-2010

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Collin 82.63 86.22 59.12 Dallas 19.05 19.76 6.73 Delta 0.37 9.68 -1.80 Denton 91.11 58.29 53.04 Ellis 42.56 30.75 34.35 Hunt 16.46 19.04 12.45 Johnson 43.63 30.51 19.02 Kaufman 33.85 36.56 44.92 Parker 45.23 36.60 32.13 Rockwall 76.24 68.25 81.84 Tarrant 35.92 23.60 25.09 Wise 30.49 40.70 21.18

18

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980 - 2010 Census Counts.

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Components of Change for Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, 2000 to 2009

County

Population Births-Deaths

Migration

2000 2009 Change Foreign Domestic

Collin 491,675 791,631 299,956 74,478 26,253 195,084

Dallas County 2,218,899 2,451,730 232,831 266,362 210,742 -270,188

Delta County 5,327 5,410 83 -67 -2 180

Denton County 432,976 658,616 225,640 63,268 15,076 144,388

Ellis County 111,360 151,737 40,377 10,632 2,895 27,189

Hunt County 76,596 82,831 6,235 3,282 1,604 1,843

Johnson County 126,811 156,997 30,186 8,773 2,041 19,912

Kaufman County 71,313 103,038 31,725 5,675 1,550 24,166

Parker County 88,495 114,919 26,424 4,188 797 21,740

Rockwall County 43,080 81,391 38,311 5,386 930 31,444

Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,789,900 343,681 166,565 72,330 114,035

Wise County 48,793 59,415 10,622 2,599 986 7,269

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Counts. 2009 Population Estimates.

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Median Age and Change in Median Age, 2000-2010 in Select Metroplex Counties

20

County Median Age

2000 Median Age

2010 Change in Median

Age 2000-2010

Collin 32.9 35.0 2.1

Dallas 31.1 32.5 1.4

Denton 31.0 33.0 2.0

Ellis 33.2 35.0 1.8

Grayson 37.2 39.5 2.3

Hunt 35.5 37.8 2.3

Johnson 34.3 36.3 2.0

Kaufman 34.9 35.4 0.5

Parker 36.5 38.9 2.4

Rockwall 35.3 35.9 0.6

Tarrant 32.3 33.4 1.1

Wise 35.5 38.4 2.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

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Average Family Size in North Texas Counties, 2010

21

Anderson

Angelina

ArcherBaylor

Bell

Bosque

Brazos

Brown

Burleson

Burnet

Callahan

Camp

Cherokee

Clay

Coleman

Collin

Comanche

Cooke

Coryell

Dallas

Delta

Denton

EastlandEllis

Erath

Falls

Fannin

Franklin

Freestone

Grayson

Gregg

Grimes

Hamilton

Henderson

Hill

Hood

Hopkins

Houston

Hunt

Jack

Johnson

Kaufman

Lamar

LampasasLeon

Limestone

Llano

McCulloch

McLennan

Madison

Mason

Milam

Mills

Montague

Morris

Nacogdoches

Navarro

PaloPinto

Parker

Polk

Rains

RedRiver

Robertson

Rockwall

Rusk

SanJacinto

San Saba

Shackelford

Smith

Somervell

StephensTarrant

ThrockmortonTitus

Trinity

Upshur

VanZandt

Walker

WichitaWilbarger

Williamson

Wise

Wood

Young

Population 2010

Sheet1$.avgfamsz10

2.6 - 2.8

2.81 - 3.0

3.01 - 3.2

3.21 - 3.4

3.41 - 4.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 . Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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Average Family Size in Select Metroplex Counties, 2000-2010

22

County Average Family

Size 2000 Average Family

Size 2010

Change in Average Family Size 2000-2010

Collin 3.18 3.25 0.07 Dallas 3.34 3.41 0.07 Denton 3.18 3.24 0.06 Ellis 3.31 3.31 0.00 Grayson 3.00 3.02 0.02 Hunt 3.08 3.12 0.04 Johnson 3.20 3.22 0.02 Kaufman 3.24 3.29 0.05 Parker 3.11 3.09 -0.02 Rockwall 3.23 3.29 0.06 Tarrant 3.22 3.29 0.07 Wise 3.14 3.16 0.02

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 .

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Percent of Households that are Married Couple Families in North Texas Counties, 2000-2010

23

Anderson

Archer

Bosque

Brown

Cherokee

Clay

Collin

Comanche

Cooke

Coryell

Dallas

Delta

Denton

EastlandEllis

Erath

Falls

Fannin

Franklin

Freestone

Grayson

Hamilton

Henderson

Hill

Hood

Hopkins

Houston

Hunt

Jack

Johnson

Kaufman

Lamar

Lampasas

Leon

LimestoneMcLennanMills

Montague

Navarro

PaloPinto

Parker

Rains

RedRiver

Rockwall

Smith

Somervell

Stephens

Tarrant

VanZandt

Wichita

Wise

Wood

YoungPopulation 2010

Sheet1$.PctMCFam10

43-48

48.1-52

52.1-56

56.1-62

62.1-68

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 . Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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24

Anderson

Archer

Bosque

Brown

Cherokee

Clay

Collin

Comanche

Cooke

Coryell

Dallas

Delta

Denton

Eastland Ellis

Erath

Falls

Fannin

Franklin

Freestone

Grayson

Hamilton

Henderson

Hill

Hood

Hopkins

Houston

Hunt

Jack

Johnson

Kaufman

Lamar

Lampasas

Leon

LimestoneMcLennanMills

Montague

Navarro

PaloPinto

Parker

Rains

RedRiver

Rockwall

Smith

Somervell

Stephens

Tarrant

VanZandt

Wichita

Wise

Wood

Young

Population 2010

Sheet1$.ChgpctMCfam00_10

-5 to -4.2

-4.19 to -3.0

-2.9 to -2.0

-1.9 to 0

0.1 to 1.0

Change in Percent of Households that are Married Couple Families in North Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 . Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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Percent and Change of Households that are Married Couple Families in Select Metroplex Counties, 2000-2010

25

County

Percent of Families with

Married Couple 2000

Percent of Families with

Married Couple 2010

Change in the Percent of

Married-Couple Families

Collin 62.1 59.5 -2.6 Dallas 46.9 43.6 -3.3 Denton 57.9 55.6 -2.3 Ellis 64.8 61.2 -3.6 Grayson 55.2 52.0 -3.2 Hunt 56.2 53.2 -3.0 Johnson 64.7 60.0 -4.7 Kaufman 63.1 60.9 -2.2 Parker 65.6 62.0 -3.6 Rockwall 71.0 67.4 -3.6 Tarrant 52.6 50.2 -2.4 Wise 66.1 62.3 -3.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 .

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26

Anderson

Archer

Bell

Bosque

Camp

Cherokee

Clay

Collin

Comanche

Cooke

Coryell

Dallas

Delta

Denton

Eastland

Ellis

Erath

Falls

Fannin

Franklin

Freestone

Grayson

Hamilton

Henderson

Hill

Hood

Hopkins

Houston

Hunt

Jack

Johnson

Kaufman

Lamar

LampasasLeon

LimestoneMcLennan

Mills

Montague

Navarro

PaloPinto

Parker

Rains

RedRiver

Robertson

Rockwall

San Saba

Smith

Somervell

Stephens Tarrant

Titus

Trinity

Upshur

VanZandt

Wichita

Wise

Wood

Young

Percent of Households Headed by a Single Female* in North Texas Counties, 2010

Population 2010

Sheet1$.pctfemhhh10

9.3-10

10.1-12

12.1-13.5

13.51-15

15.1-16

*Note: No spouse present. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census, SF1. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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27

Anderson

Archer

Bosque

Brown

Cherokee

Clay

Collin

Comanche

Cooke

Coryell

Dallas

Delta

Denton

Eastland Ellis

Erath

Falls

Fannin

Franklin

Freestone

Grayson

Hamilton

Henderson

Hill

Hood

Hopkins

Houston

Hunt

Jack

Johnson

Kaufman

Lamar

Lampasas

Leon

LimestoneMcLennanMills

Montague

Navarro

PaloPinto

Parker

Rains

RedRiver

Rockwall

Smith

Somervell

Stephens

Tarrant

VanZandt

Wichita

Wise

Wood

Young

Population 2010

Sheet1$.Chgpctfemhhh00_10

-1-0

0.1-1.0

1.1-1.15

1.251-1.5

1.51-1.75

1.751-2.1

Change in Percent of Households Headed by a Single Female* in North Texas Counties, 2000-2010

*Note: No spouse present. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

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Percent of Households Headed by Single Females* in Select Metroplex Counties, 2000-2010

County Percent of Family

Households that are Female Headed, 2000

Percent of Family Households that are

Female Headed, 2010

Change in Percent of Family Households

that are Female Headed 2000-2010

Collin 7.5 9.6 2.1

Dallas 14.1 16.0 1.9 Denton 8.6 10.2 1.6 Ellis 11.0 12.4 1.4 Grayson 11.4 12.2 0.8 Hunt 11.0 12.2 1.2 Johnson 10.0 11.5 1.5 Kaufman 11.3 12.4 1.1 Parker 8.7 9.4 0.7

Rockwall 8.0 9.3 1.3 Tarrant 12.2 13.8 1.6 Wise 8.2 9.5 1.3

28 *Note: No spouse present. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 .

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Demographics and Destiny

29

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Texas and DFW Demographics

• Growing more and faster than all states, DFW is grower faster than most (if not all) metro-areas

• Growth driven by natural increase and migration variable across the metro-area

• Increasing diversity driven by growth of Hispanic population

• Declines in percentage of traditional nuclear family households

• Increases in family size and families headed by single females

30

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Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530

Email: [email protected]

Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

31