Demand for Higher Education Programs - info.grayassociates.com Webcast... · 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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Demand for Higher Education Programs

Results through May 2019

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Data driven? Or data informed?Most institutional decisions should be data-informed.

Data-DrivenAlgorithmically feasible, high volume:

e.g., Google keyword bidding

Data-InformedData and judgement needed,

low volume, high value: e.g., program selection, scholarship offers

Data-FreeUnimportant, low-cost, first try,

intuitively sensible

Most High-Stakes Decisions

Market

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Higher Education DataYour data estate should include internal and market information.

Coherent insights gained from integrated data

Source: Ovum, modified by Gray Associates

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Who is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

DemographicsWages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program Economics Platform§ Integrated Program Analysis

§ Market Analysis Platform§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City

§ Google Search Trends- Programs- New Brands!- Fastest Growing

§ Program of the Month: Philosophy§ Summary

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National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)Gray has tracked demand for several years.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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Student Inquiries (All Sources)In May, inquiries rose 8% year-over-year, continuing a seven-month winning streak.


+ 8%YoY

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10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

In the last “mature” month, February ’19, conversions did not change year-over-year.

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.


0%YoY

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Immature Months1

§ Conversions are now up 10% for December ‘18.

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§ Price-per-inquiry increased only $0.76 from April.

Average Price for Pay-per-InquiryPrice-per-inquiry decreased 3% year-over-year in May.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2017 $45.38 $45.29 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.732018 $47.12 $46.56 $46.33 $47.41 $49.49 $49.25 $48.34 $50.31 $48.36 $47.60 $49.09 $47.552019 $48.02 $47.13 $43.74 $47.06 $47.82 $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.


-3%YoY

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Inquiries for Online ProgramsInquiries for online programs increased 8% in May.

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Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019


+8%YoY

§ Inquiries for online programs have increased year-over-year in each of the past 14 months.

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Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsIn February, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 24%.

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Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019


-24% YoY

§ This is the third month in a row to decline over 20%.§ November ‘18 was the most recent month to have growth in on-campus inquiries.

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Inquiries for Programs with Unknown Modality

Inquiries for programs with an unknown modality jumped 47% in May.

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Inquiries for Programs with Unknown ModalityAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019


+47%

YoY

§ For the past five months, these inquiries have increased dramatically.

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§ Business Administration and Criminal Justice inquiries rose 20% or more year-over-year.

The Big 5 ProgramsThree of the “Big 5” programs are healthcare-related.

26%20%

7% 6%

-9%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

BusinessAdministration

CriminalJustice

RegisteredNursing

MedicalAssistant

Medical OfficeAssistant/Specialist.

Five Largest Programs Since 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs1

In May, two of the five fastest-growing programs were computer-centered.

169%

107%

79%61%

51%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Mental HealthCounseling

Entrepreneurship Computer SystemsNetworking and

Telecommunications

Liberal Arts InformationTechnology

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

1. Selected from the 75 programs with the highest inquiry volume since January 2012.


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The Big 5 CitiesInquiries in LA increased 34% in May.§ Inquiries in Houston continued a three-month trend of over 20% growth.§ Philadelphia inquiries continue to decline.

-3%-9%

1%

-2%

13%

34%

23%19%

8%

-14%-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX Chicago, IL New York, NY Philadelphia, PA

Five Cities With the Most InquiriesYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2018 YoY % Change 2019 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree LevelInquiries for Bachelor’s-level programs increased 26% year-over-year.

-7%

10%

26%

7%

19%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Change in InquiriesMay YoY


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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher-education programs. - We track approximately 20 keywords for each program.

Google Search Trends: ProgramsGray’s Google search index rose for the 11th month in a row, up 11% in May.

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Google Searches200 Largest Programs*

2017 2018 2019

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

+11%YoY

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Google Search Trends: Shrinking Programs

Three of the ten fastest-declining programs were in STEM fields. Surprisingly, two were large, popular healthcare programs.

-29%

-22%

-21%

-18%

-16%

-13%

-10%

-8%

-7%

-7%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Health Care Admin./Mgmt.

Chemistry

Admin. Assistant and Secretarial Science

Occupational Therapist Assistant

Elementary Education

Physics

Computer Programming

Computer Installation and Repair Technology

Child Care Provider

International/Global Studies

Fastest-Declining ProgramsMay Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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Google Search Trends: Growing Programs

Vocational programs represented half of the programs with the fastest-growing searches.

79%

50%

46%

44%

36%

34%

30%

29%

29%

27%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist

Finance

Office Management and Supervision

Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist

Electrician

Social Work

Environmental Science

Computer and Information SystemsSecurity/Information Assurance

Cosmetology

Dental Assisting

Fastest-Growing ProgramsMay Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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§ Interest may be shifting from college brands to specific programs–and their related careers.

Google Search Trends: New Brands!Gray has further developed the database of brands tracked from 75 to 350 institutions.

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Google Searches350 Brands

2017 2018 2019

Source: Gray Associates research, keyword search trends for 75 college and university brands.

-9%YoY

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Fastest-Growing BrandsMany of the institutions are selective four-year schools.

87%

80%

70%

62%

58%

56%

49%

35%

33%

33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Emory University

DePaul University

Swarthmore College

Purdue Global

Pima Medical Institute

University of Notre Dame

Lehigh University

Holyoke Community College

United States Air Force Academy

Pennsylvania State University

Fastest-Growing BrandsYear-over-Year Change in Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands. Minimum 10,000 Google searches.

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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View

We envision four foundations of program sustainability.

Foundations of Program Sustainability

Program ScoringWe suggest using four categories of market data.

StudentDemand

Employment

DegreeFit

CompetitiveIntensity

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Program Markets: Program RankScoring on metrics in the four categories identifies potentially attractive programs.

National Program Scores and Ranking

Score

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§ Nationally, there were only 229 inquiries.- This is down 83% from the previous year.

§ However, total Google Search volume and Completions are in the 90th percentile.- Year-over-year percent change are about average.

Program Scorecard: Student DemandStudent Demand volumes range from the 70th to 90th percentiles.

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§ 23 institutions no longer offer Philosophy.§ Marketing metrics – average cost per inquiry, cost per click, and Google competitive index – are

in the top 2% of the least-expensive programs.§ Philosophy is seldom offered as an online program.

Program Scorecard: CompetitionAlmost 800 institutions offer Philosophy programs nationally.

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Program Scorecard: Employment The employment opportunities in Philosophy are mediocre.

§ Total job postings and current employment are in the 40th to 70thpercentile.

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§ BLS 3- and 5-year historical employment growth rates are in the 40th

percentile, while the year-over-year rate declined.

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§ Most employment opportunities are Generalist jobs and are not directly related to Philosophy.

§ 58% of students with a Bachelor’s in Philosophy go on to obtain a graduate degree.

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§ Only 29% of the workforce hold Bachelor’s degrees; most hold graduate degrees.

Program Scorecard: Degree Fit83% of Philosophy completions are at the Bachelor’s level.

• At the Associate and Certificate level, Philosophy programs are inexpensive to operate.

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Program Scorecard: Philosophy

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Program Sustainability: MoneyAnother important aspect of program sustainability are program economics.

Foundations of Program Sustainability

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Program Scorecard: PhilosophyWhile the Philosophy program only had 14 students, contribution per student credit hour (SCH) was average. § Small programs do not necessarily lose money.

Illustrative

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§ Total student inquiries were up 8% year-over-year.- Inquiries for online programs continue to rise.- Inquiries for on-campus programs continue to fall.- Inquiries with no stated preference between online and on-campus continued to grow rapidly.

§ Inquiry conversion rates are on track to be higher in every month of the first quarter of 2019.

§ Except for Undergraduate Certificates, inquiries increased at every degree level.§ Inquiries rose 169% for Mental Health Counseling programs.

§ Purdue Global, formerly Kaplan University, is gaining brand awareness.§ Philosophy programs are popular, but are very small.

- At one institution, the program is contribution-positive.- 23 schools stopped offering Philosophy programs. - Employment opportunities for Bachelor’s-degree Philosophy students are largely Generalist jobs.- There may be an opportunity to offer philosophy online.

As always, good market data enables better program decisions.

Key Demand Trends and Observations

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Upcoming WebinarsGray’s 2019 Master Classes in Academic Program Assessment

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Webinar Topic Date

Master Class 5: Inform and Engage Constituencies July 11, 2:00 pm ET

GrayReports: Monthly Demand Trends Webcast July 25, 2:00 pm ET

Master Class 6: Integrate and Sustain August 8, 2:00 pm ET

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Demand for Higher Education Programs

Next Webcast: July 25th,

2:00 PM Eastern Time

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Demand for Higher Education Programs - info.grayassociates.com Webcast... · 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul