Debating the Causes of Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3

LevelsLevels

Volusia County PSVolusia County PS2012 Workshop2012 Workshop

Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell CollegeWilliam Jewell College

Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. Why 1914 MattersWhy 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations

A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible? What Causes War? What Causes War? ““3 Lenses3 Lenses””

C.C. 33rdrd Lens: Rise of German Power Lens: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)

D.D. 22ndnd Lens: Domestic Crises Lens: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis

E.E. 11stst Lens: Ideas Lens: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories

““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)

Great War BasicsGreat War Basics

1914-19181914-1918Central Powers vs. AlliesCentral Powers vs. AlliesDead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilianDead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilianFirstsFirsts– Use of chemical weaponsUse of chemical weapons– Mass attacks on civilians from airMass attacks on civilians from air– Genocide Genocide – Immobile FrontImmobile Front– US in European WarUS in European War

Widespread Collapse & Social ExhaustionWidespread Collapse & Social ExhaustionNew World ComingNew World Coming

““The lamps are going out all The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not over Europe. We shall not

see them lit again in our see them lit again in our lifetime.lifetime.””

Sir Edward Grey,Sir Edward Grey,

British Foreign British Foreign Secretary, 1905-1916Secretary, 1905-1916

1862-19331862-1933

Niall FergusonNiall Ferguson

No persuasive evidence that No persuasive evidence that Germany intended to Germany intended to ““conquer conquer the worldthe world””

GermanyGermany’’s September 1914 s September 1914 Program would have created Program would have created German-dominated customs German-dominated customs unionunion

ThatThat’’s what we have today – 90 s what we have today – 90 years later!years later!

The ChauffeurThe Chauffeur’’s Faults Fault

Kaiser Wilhelm IIKaiser Wilhelm II1959-19411959-1941

reign 1888-1918reign 1888-1918

Psychological Psychological Pathologies?Pathologies?

The Naval The Naval RevolutionRevolution

HMS HMS DreadnoughtDreadnought

19071907

Irrational Arms Race?Irrational Arms Race?

Dreadnought schemaDreadnought schema

Naval Strength, 1914Naval Strength, 1914

CountryCountry PersonnelPersonnel Major Warships Major Warships DreadnoughtsDreadnoughts

RussiaRussia 54,000 54,000 44

FranceFrance 68,000 68,000 1010

BritainBritain 209,000209,000 2929 2020

GermanyGermany 79,000 79,000 1717 1313

A-HA-H 16,000 16,000 3 3

Confidence that Globalization Confidence that Globalization wonwon’’t let it happent let it happen

                            

Economist, Economist, 10/9710/97

                            

War is not rational – War is not rational – Norman AngellNorman Angell

Norman AngellNorman Angell1872-19671872-1967Nobel Peace Prize, 1933Nobel Peace Prize, 1933Read MillRead Mill’’s s ““Essay on LibertyEssay on Liberty”” at age 12 at age 12Great IllusionGreat Illusion, 1910, 1910““……military and political power give a military and political power give a nation no commercial advantage, that nation no commercial advantage, that it is an economic impossibility for one it is an economic impossibility for one nation to seize or destroy the wealth nation to seize or destroy the wealth of another, or for one nation to enrich of another, or for one nation to enrich itself by subjugating another.itself by subjugating another.””

Kenneth WaltzKenneth Waltz

Emeritus Professor, UC Emeritus Professor, UC BerkeleyBerkeleyMost cited Neo-Realist Most cited Neo-Realist Man, The State, & WarMan, The State, & War (1959) (1959)Theory of International PoliticsTheory of International Politics (1979)(1979)Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Would More Be Better?Would More Be Better? (1995) (1995)

What Causes War?What Causes War?Waltz & 3 ImagesWaltz & 3 Images

First Image: Nature of man First Image: Nature of man – Augustine, Reinhold NiebuhrAugustine, Reinhold Niebuhr– Waltz: Why This DoesnWaltz: Why This Doesn’’t Workt Work

Second Image: Defects in RegimesSecond Image: Defects in Regimes– Woodrow Wilson, LeninWoodrow Wilson, Lenin– The Liberal Democratic PeaceThe Liberal Democratic Peace– Waltz: Why This DoesnWaltz: Why This Doesn’’t Workt Work

Third Image: Structure of World PoliticsThird Image: Structure of World Politics– Anarchy & Security DilemmasAnarchy & Security Dilemmas

Rise of German PowerRise of German PowerIndustrial Power (UK 1900 = 100)Industrial Power (UK 1900 = 100)

CountryCountry18801880 19001900 19131913 19281928UKUK 73.373.3 [100][100] 127.2127.2 135135USAUSA 46.946.9 127.8127.8 298.1298.1 533533GermanyGermany 27.427.4 71.271.2 137.7137.7 214214FranceFrance 25.125.1 36.836.8 57.357.3 7474RussiaRussia 24.524.5 47.547.5 76.676.6 7272A-HA-H 1414 25.625.6 40.740.7 ----ItalyItaly 8.18.1 13.613.6 22.522.5 3737JapanJapan 7.67.6 1313 25.125.1 4545

Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers

Rise of German Power: Rise of German Power: Military ManpowerMilitary Manpower

CountryCountry18801880 18901890 19001900 19141914

RussiaRussia 791k791k 677k677k 1.16 M1.16 M 1.35 M1.35 M

FranceFrance 543k543k 542k542k 715k715k 910k910k

GermanyGermany 426k426k 504k504k 694k694k 891k891k

UKUK 367k367k 420k420k 624k624k 532k532k

A-HA-H 246k246k 346k346k 385k385k 444k444k

ItalyItaly 216k216k 284k284k 255k255k 345k345k

USAUSA 34k34k 39k39k 127k127k 164k164kSource: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers

Rise of German Power:Rise of German Power:Population (in millions)Population (in millions)

CountryCountry 18901890 19001900 19101910 19131913

RussiaRussia116.8116.8 135.6135.6 159.3159.3 175.1175.1

USAUSA 62.6 62.6 75.9 75.9 91.9 91.9 97.1 97.1

GermanyGermany 49.2 49.2 56.0 56.0 65.5 65.5 66.9 66.9

A-HA-H 42.6 42.6 46.7 46.7 50.8 50.8 52.1 52.1

FranceFrance 38.3 38.3 38.9 38.9 39.5 39.5 39.7 39.7

UKUK 37.3 37.3 41.1 41.1 44.9 44.9 45.6 45.6

Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers

Rise of German PowerRise of German PowerUrbanization (%)Urbanization (%)

CountryCountry 18901890 19001900 19131913

UKUK 29.929.9 32.832.8 34.634.6

USAUSA 15.315.3 18.718.7 23.123.1

GermanyGermany 11.311.3 15.515.5 21.121.1

FranceFrance 11.711.7 13.313.3 14.814.8

A-HA-H 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 8.8 8.8

RussiaRussia 3.6 3.6 4.8 4.8 7.0 7.0

Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers

Alliance System, 1914Alliance System, 1914

Building an Building an ententeentente

1904: France & UK begin conversations1904: France & UK begin conversations

1905: Russia nearly collapses1905: Russia nearly collapses

1907: France, Russia, UK form 1907: France, Russia, UK form entente entente cordialecordiale

Building: Another WayBuilding: Another Way

Wilson: How many Wilson: How many British troops do you British troops do you need if Germany need if Germany attacks?attacks?

Foch: One. And we Foch: One. And we will see to it that he is will see to it that he is killed.killed.– 19101910

General General Henry Henry WilsonWilson

General General Ferdinand Ferdinand FochFoch

Count Alfred von SchlieffenCount Alfred von Schlieffen1833-19131833-1913

The Schlieffen PlanThe Schlieffen Plan

German TimetableGerman Timetable

Liege open by Liege open by M+12M+12

Brussels by M+19Brussels by M+19 French frontier on French frontier on

M+22M+22 Thionville-St. Thionville-St.

Quentin by M+31Quentin by M+31 Paris by M+39Paris by M+39

1219

2231

39

Mobilization ChronologyMobilization Chronology

6/286/28 Assassination of Archduke Franz FerdinandAssassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

7/237/23 AH ultimatum to SerbiaAH ultimatum to Serbia

7/257/25 Russia begins pre-mobilizationRussia begins pre-mobilization

7/267/26 Russia issues Russia issues ““period preparatory to warperiod preparatory to war”” alertalert””

7/287/28 AH declares war on Serbia, begins AH declares war on Serbia, begins mobilizationmobilization

7/297/29 Russia begins partial mobilization, then Russia begins partial mobilization, then general mobilization, then cancels general mobilization, then cancels mobilizationmobilization

Mobilization ChronologyMobilization Chronology7/307/30 Russia orders general mobilization (1700)Russia orders general mobilization (1700)7/317/31 Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200)Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200)7/317/31 German German ““Danger of WarDanger of War”” alert (1300)alert (1300)7/317/31 German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilizationGerman ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization7/317/31 French mobilization, 10 km withdrawalFrench mobilization, 10 km withdrawal8/18/1 German mobilization (1700)German mobilization (1700)8/18/1 Germany declares war on Russia (1900)Germany declares war on Russia (1900)8/28/2 German invasion of LuxembourgGerman invasion of Luxembourg8/28/2 British Cabinet orders Royal British Cabinet orders Royal

Navy to protect English ChannelNavy to protect English Channel8/28/2 German ultimatum to Belgium German ultimatum to Belgium

(1900)(1900)8/38/3 UK orders army mobilizationUK orders army mobilization8/38/3 Germany declares war on FranceGermany declares war on France8/48/4 Germany invades Belgium (0802)Germany invades Belgium (0802)

Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. What 1914 MattersWhat 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations

A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible?

C.C. 33rdrd Image: Rise of German Power Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)

D.D. 22ndnd Image: Domestic Crises Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis

E.E. 11stst Image: Ideas Image: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories

““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)

Austria-HungaryAustria-Hungary

Head of State: Kaiser Franz-Head of State: Kaiser Franz-Josef I (r 1848-1916)Josef I (r 1848-1916)Population: 52 MPopulation: 52 MFederal EmpireFederal EmpireLanguages: 24% German, Languages: 24% German, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% Slovene, 3% ItalianSlovene, 3% Italian

CommanderCommanderFranz Conrad von HFranz Conrad von Hötzendorfötzendorf

1852-19251852-1925Chief of Staff, Chief of Staff, KuKKuK Army, Army, 1906-19171906-1917Proposed War with Serbia Proposed War with Serbia 25 times, 191325 times, 1913Dismissed, 1917, by new Dismissed, 1917, by new Emperor KarlEmperor Karl

Socialist VoteSocialist Vote

DateDate PercentagePercentage SocialistSocialist TotalTotal

of Voteof Vote SeatsSeats ParlParl

A-HA-H 19111911 25.425.4 3333

FranceFrance 19141914 16.816.8 103103

GermanyGermany19121912 34.834.8 110110 397397

RussiaRussia 19121912 n.a.n.a. 2424

BritainBritain 19101910 6.4 6.4 4242 670670

Ferguson, Pity of War

Fischer ThesisFischer ThesisFritz Fischer, German Historian, Fritz Fischer, German Historian, 1908-19991908-1999German leaders obsessed with German leaders obsessed with internal threat of Socialist revolutioninternal threat of Socialist revolutionGerman domestic pressure groups German domestic pressure groups produced aggressive foreign policyproduced aggressive foreign policyGermany deliberately began WW1 Germany deliberately began WW1 in bid for world powerin bid for world powerGermany intended to commit ethnic Germany intended to commit ethnic cleansing in Russia, then re-cleansing in Russia, then re-colonize with Germanscolonize with GermansContinuity in German foreign policyContinuity in German foreign policyHuge ControversyHuge Controversy

Wobbly Autocracy?Wobbly Autocracy?Internal UnrestInternal Unrest

in Russiain Russia

Evidence of UnrestEvidence of UnrestTroops Used to suppress internal unrestTroops Used to suppress internal unrest– 19011901 155155– 19031903 322322– Jan 1909Jan 1909 13,50713,507– All 1909All 1909 114,108114,108

1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked1913: 100,000 arrests for 1913: 100,000 arrests for ““attacks on state attacks on state powerpower””

Kennedy, Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great PowersRise & Fall of the Great Powers

Wobbly Authoritarian?Wobbly Authoritarian?Internal Unrest Internal Unrest

in Chinain China

Murray Tanner, “China Rethinks Unrest,” 2004

ChinaChina’’s s Demographic ChallengeDemographic Challenge

Global Average = 103-107 Boy:Girl

11stst Image: Ideas & War in 1914 Image: Ideas & War in 1914

German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930 German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930

Germany & the Next WarGermany & the Next War– The Right to Make WarThe Right to Make War– The Duty to Make WarThe Duty to Make War– World Power or DownfallWorld Power or Downfall– War as biological necessity based on natural law War as biological necessity based on natural law

requiring struggle for existencerequiring struggle for existence

Key IdeasKey Ideas– MilitarismMilitarism– Social DarwinismSocial Darwinism– War as Moral CorrectiveWar as Moral Corrective

Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. What 1914 MattersWhat 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations

A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible?

C.C. 33rdrd Image: Rise of German Power Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)

D.D. 22ndnd Image: Domestic Crises Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis

E.E. 11stst Image: Ideas Image: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories

““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)

Accidental or Inadvertent War?Accidental or Inadvertent War?LevyLevy’’s Preference Schemes Preference Scheme

AHAH LW>>CW>>NP>>WWLW>>CW>>NP>>WW

GermanyGermany LW>>CW>>NP>>WWLW>>CW>>NP>>WW

RussiaRussiaNP>>WW>>CW>>LWNP>>WW>>CW>>LW

FranceFrance NP>>LW>>WW>>CWNP>>LW>>WW>>CW

UKUK NP>>LW>>WW>?LWNP>>LW>>WW>?LW

Levy in Levy in Avoiding WarAvoiding War

Barbara TuchmanBarbara Tuchman1912-19891912-1989

Spiral Spiral TheoryTheory

Spiral Theory: WhatSpiral Theory: What’’s Luxemburg Got to Do s Luxemburg Got to Do With This?With This?

                                     

Chancellor Chancellor Bethmann Bethmann HollwegHollweg

General General MoltkeMoltke

KW2 akaKW2 aka

Supreme Supreme War LordWar Lord

Cult of the Offensive? Cult of the Offensive?

World Politics in an Offensive World Politics in an Offensive Dominant WorldDominant World

Arguments for territorial expansion seem Arguments for territorial expansion seem persuasivepersuasive

Strong incentives for preemptive attackStrong incentives for preemptive attack

Strong incentives for preventive warStrong incentives for preventive war

Push diplomacy in crisisPush diplomacy in crisis

Premium on secrecyPremium on secrecy

The Cult of the OffensiveThe Cult of the Offensive

Assumption: Defensive military strategies Assumption: Defensive military strategies dominated World War I.dominated World War I.

Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt offensive strategies?offensive strategies?

Michael Howard: Logic of Michael Howard: Logic of ““Men Against Men Against FireFire””

Map: Ger penetration 1918Map: Ger penetration 1918

Map: German control highpoint Map: German control highpoint 19181918

Elan Vitale!Elan Vitale!

Losses: KIALosses: KIAAug-Nov 1914Aug-Nov 1914

306,000

241,000

30,000

Key Lessons of 1914Key Lessons of 1914

““German RevolutionGerman Revolution”” pressuring pressuring international stabilityinternational stability

Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis CascadeCascade

Incomplete Democratization (or Incomplete Democratization (or Liberalization) Dangerous Liberalization) Dangerous

Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or GoodGood

Some ConclusionsSome Conclusions

Deep Causes vs. TriggerDeep Causes vs. Trigger

Immense Pressures Creating Strong Immense Pressures Creating Strong Pressure for ConflictPressure for Conflict

Some Pressures Look Similar TodaySome Pressures Look Similar Today