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Dealing with Suicide
1
K N O W L E D G E E X C H A N G E S E M I N A R S E R I E S
Dealing with suicide:how does research help?
11th April 2013
M i ke To m l i n s o nQueen’s University Belfast
Dealing with Suicide
2
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
All
Female
Male
N. Ireland suicide rates per 100,000 population
Dealing with Suicide
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1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
f(x) = 0.632597151922483 x − 1256.27200593349R² = 0.841314390982005
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, all persons
Dealing with Suicide
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19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
2.00
7.00
12.00
17.00
22.00
27.00
f(x) = 0.89965718674399 x + 10.9985835023669R² = 0.857471643030611
f(x) = 0.299991560816481 x + 2.74461516085369R² = 0.859167599011372
Dealing with Suicide
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20118.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
All persons suicide rate and impact of prevention strategy
366
Dealing with Suicide
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201060.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
England
North East
Scotland
R of Ireland
N Ireland
Male suicide rates (3yr rolling averages), 1998=100
Dealing with Suicide
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Dealing with Suicide
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15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1983-19971998-2012Excess of 2nd over 1st period
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1983-19971998-2012Excess of 2nd over 1st period
Share of suicides by age
Males
Females
Dealing with Suicide
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Belfast NorthBelfast West
Newry and ArmaghFoyle
West TyroneFermanagh and South Tyrone
Belfast SouthMid Ulster
Belfast EastUpper Bann
East LondonderryStrangford
Lagan ValleyNorth Antrim
East AntrimSouth Down
South AntrimNorth Down
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Ave rate 1997-2004Ave rate 2004-2011
Suicide rates, Westminster constituencies 1997-2004 and 2004-2011
Dealing with Suicide
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Dealing with Suicide
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South Down
East Antrim
Mid Ulster
North Antrim
Lagan Valley
Newry and Armagh
Upper Bann
Foyle
Belfast North
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
N. Ireland rate
Suicide rates 2009-11
Suicide rates, Westminster constituencies, 2009-11
Dealing with Suicide
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Suicide rates, Westminster constituencies, 2009-11
Dealing with Suicide
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Explanations:
1. Changes in reporting and recording2. Changes in mental illness and/or service provision3. Changes in behaviour change: alcohol and drugs4. Changes in protective factors: religion, family life and
normative expectations5. Economic change: recession and unemployment6. Legacy of conflict
Dealing with Suicide
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Dealing with Suicide
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1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
f(x) = 0.597468194541123 x − 1173.01194430068R² = 0.242395794889493
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 15-24 yr old males
<5
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
f(x) = 0.322294207943631 x − 640.71082465611R² = 0.424706445984803
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 15-24 yr old females
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
f(x) = 1.05397664787854 x − 2080.60560659284R² = 0.567638430650813
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 25-34 yr old males
5-14
<5
15-24
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
f(x) = 0.371420949862184 x − 737.357866248298R² = 0.682961433953735
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 25-34 yr old females
5-14
Dealing with Suicide
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1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
f(x) = 1.87015770030792 x − 3720.9354078414R² = 0.86692330959413
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 35-44 yr old males
5-14
15-24
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20110.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
f(x) = 1.76410196631755 x − 3510.67066901795R² = 0.88212391056737
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Suicides rates, 45-54 yr old males
15-24
Dealing with Suicide
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Implications of suicide as legacy of conflict :
1.Alter perspectives on prevention2. Adjust identification of at-risk individuals, groups and
communities3.Improve data analysis and sociological autopsy to sharpen
understanding of risk and the disconnect between services and those in need4.Inform ongoing suicide awareness training among gatekeepers of services and resources5.Change focus of public health strategies to address mass medication in middle and older age groups
