Data Coordination Working Group Data Coordination Working Group (DCWG) Meeting(DCWG) Meeting

September 18th & 19th

Energy Information Administration (EIA)Washington, DCRoom 2E-069

DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1)DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1)September 18, 2008 | 1:00p.m.–5:00 p.m.

Introductions

Logistics, objectives of the meeting

Updates from EIA

• Status of Presidential Permits

• Update on Forms & Requirements

• Status of 2011 data collection forms

• EIA letter to NERC on what they want

(Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…)

• Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA

• Data to collect for renewables

• Granularity of transmission data

Update NERC-EIA Memorandum of Understanding

Review new schedules for data collection

How does NERC map LTRA data into 411

Matching NERC’s UGD and 860

Update on data collection effort by EIA on coal delivery issues

Schedule-1 data needs

DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 2)DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 2)

September 19, 2008 | 8:00a.m.12:00 p.m.

Review NERC reliability assessment process and analysis Updates from EIA

Posting Policy

Review various Task Force Activities and their impact on DCWG

NERC plans for presenting data in reliability assessments

Feedback from LTRA workshop

Status update on the DCWG and RAS work plans

Feedback from regions on Winter and LTRA forms

Capacity margin proposal by WECC and NERC's findings on collecting Schedule 2 data

Update on Task 4 “Review the NERC Analysis and Processes,” of DCWG work plan

Schedule next briefing call for DCWG

Adjourn

ObjectivesObjectives

Improve coordination with EIA

Decide on data needs:

• Review Data needs approved by PC

• Includes NERC requirements for the LTRA and Seasonal Assessments

Develop feedback to RAS

Review DCWG work plans and status

Updates From EIA – John MakensUpdates From EIA – John Makens

Updates from EIA

• Status of Presidential Permits

• Update on Forms & Requirements

• Status of 2011 data collection forms

• EIA letter to NERC on what they want (Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…)

• Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA

• Data to collect for renewables

• Granularity of transmission data

Data Collection of RenewablesData Collection of Renewables

140,000 MW (nameplate) of wind to be added in coming 10 years

Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26%

Expected Capacity: Summer Wind On-Peak

8.7% 8.7%

19.9%19.9%

9.1%

13.1%

19.6%

15.0%13.4%

17.3%

24.7%

26.4%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Existing Planned Proposed % of Wind to Nameplate

Demand-Side Management DataDemand-Side Management Data

Demand-Side Management DataDemand-Side Management Data

Reliability Metrics Working GroupReliability Metrics Working Group

Schedule 5 mileage data

TADS Data Collection FormsTADS Data Collection Forms

2.1 Joint AC/DC Circuits

2.2 Joint AC/DC BTB Converters

3.1 AC/DC Circuits Inventory

3.2 Transformer Inventory

3.3 AC/DC BTB Converter Inventory

3.4 Summary Automatic Outage Data

4.1 AC Circuit Outages

4.2 DC Circuit Outages

4.3 Transformer Outages

4.4 AC/DC BTB Converter Outages

5.0 Event ID Codes

TADS Overview of Data & MetricsTADS Overview of Data & Metrics

Element Inventory Data

Automatic Outage Data (each outage)

• Outage ID

• Event ID Code

• Fault Type

• Outage Initiation Code

• Outage Start Time

• Outage Duration

• Outage Cause Codes

Initiating

Sustained

• Outage Mode

Basic metrics

• Outage frequency

• Outage duration

• Mean time between failure

• Mean time to repair

• Median time to repair

• Percent availability

• Percent of Elements with no outages

• Disturbance report events

Other metrics developed as needed

RE can add additional metrics

New Transmission DataNew Transmission Data

Transmission Data Reporting

• Schedule 5

Existing

Planned

Proposed

NERC/EIA Data InterfaceNERC/EIA Data Interface

EIANERC ES&D ES&D

Generator Owners & Operators NERC Regions

LTRA Data 860 Data

411 Data

860 Data

KEYNERC = North American Reliability CorporationEIA = Energy Information AdministrationES&D = Electricity Supply & Demand database & Unified Generator Database860 = Annual Electric Generator Report (US only)411 = Long-Term Generation & Supply Data (US Only)LTRA = Long-Term Reliability Assessment Data Collection (Contains 411 Data)

All DataAll Data CA/MXGenerator Data

Reliability Assessment:Reliability Assessment: Data Collection Process Data Collection Process

Workbooks are copied to server folder and renamed

Data is extracted from workbooks and imported into an MS Access database

Data is queried and exported to Excel

Tables and charts are inserted into a draft LTRA report

Data Collection Process (Summer)Data Collection Process (Summer)

ERO-SUMMER2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October

Data submissions and narratives due to NERC by March 31

Notification of data corrections by April 15

Corrected submissions due by April 30

Publish report May 15

Data Collection Process (LTRA)Data Collection Process (LTRA)

ERO-LTRA2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October

Data submissions & narratives due by May 1

Notification of data corrections by June 15

Corrected submissions due by July 30

Publish report October 15

Review NERC Reliability Review NERC Reliability Assessment Process and Assessment Process and AnalysisAnalysis

Capacity Margins

• Layered Approach

• Metric to evaluate resource adequacy

• Used for Special Reliability Assessments

2007 Capacity Margins

• Available Resources

• Potential Resources

NERC’s Reliability Assessment AnalysisNERC’s Reliability Assessment Analysis

* This slide is a simulation of the categories and does not reflect actual data

Data Analysis ProcessData Analysis Process

Tables and Charts

• Compare to previous year’s data

Identify trend differences

Flag and follow up on outliers

• Review demand and capacity projections

Check for consistency with the self-assessment text

• Review capacity margin trends

Identify when curves drop below target (NERC Reference Level)

Check for consistency with the self-assessment text

Data Analysis ProcessData Analysis Process

Data Analysis ProcessData Analysis Process

Additional Data Queries

• Support emerging issues

• Identify industry trends

• Ad-hoc

• Perform NERC Special Reliability Assessments:

Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation

NERC Special Reliability Assessment:NERC Special Reliability Assessment:Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation Generation

NERC Special Assessments offer an opportunity to analyze potential reliability concerns for the future

Along with third-party data, NERC was able to capture retirement and retrofit effects of the proposed EPA 316b rule.

Other Data ActivitiesOther Data Activities

Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D)

• LTRA data exported to Excel

• Includes historic capacity and demand data since 1990

• Contains EIA-860 – Generator data

• Available for purchase - $5,000 NERC members - FREE

Regional Council members - FREE

Government agencies - FREE

Educational Institutions - FREE

• Provide support

ProblemsProblems

Lack of Consistency

• Data and definition revisions

• Output to tables and charts

• Year to year comparison are cumbersome

• Supporting questions and teaching the world

No IT Support

No 1-Click Solution

Need to Improve data collection system at NERC

• Systems require re-tooling

• Adopt Best Practices from Other Regions

DCWG SupportDCWG Support

Process Improvement

• Helpful tools or applications?

• Any suggestions?

Posting PolicyPosting Policy

File Type Size Date Description

Acrobat 19 KB 08/26/08 DCWG Roster (August 26, 2008)

PowerPoint   677 KB 06/19/08 DCWG Work Status Report as of June 16, 2008

PowerPoint  655 KB 04/22/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS as of April 9, 2008

Acrobat   37 KB 04/11/08 NERC Reliability Assessment Process

Acrobat   74 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Survey - Regions

Acrobat   75 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process

PowerPoint  966 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process Presentation

Acrobat   19 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Experience and Issues for the 2008 Data Collection

Acrobat 51 KB 04/11/08 DCWG 2008-2010 Work Plan

PowerPoint  83 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Action Items

PowerPoint  670 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status

Acrobat   26 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Transparency Issues

PowerPoint 679 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS

Acrobat 102 KB 04/11/08 Meeting Agenda - April 9, 2008 (Washington, D.C.)

PowerPoint  690 KB 04/11/08 PC Activities

Acrobat 56 KB 01/30/06 Meeting Minutes - December 14-15, 2005 (Tampa, FL)

Review of Various TF/WG ActivitiesReview of Various TF/WG Activities

RAS:

• Need for More granularity in Transmission

• Need to add one more year to data collection to eliminate current Summer in LTRA

RAITF: Reliability Assessment Improvement

RAGTF: Reliability Assessment Guidebook

RMWG: Reliability Metrics

Proposed Capacity DefinitionsProposed Capacity Definitions

These definitions represent an enhancement over the current set in use for reliability assessments.

Proposed definitions were presented to the NERC PC at the June 4-5, 2008 meeting in Toronto for comment, and were also circulated to the PC’s subgroups.

The proposal addresses PC specific advice:

• treatment of resources in organized markets, and

• deals with the deliverability within the recommended categories

Comparison to Current DefinitionsComparison to Current Definitions

Existing – Certain

Existing – Uncertain

Future – Planned

Future – Proposed

Existing – Certain

Existing – Other

Existing but Inoperable

Future – Planned

Future – Other

Conceptual

Current Definitions Proposed Definitions

General Concepts for Reporting CapacityGeneral Concepts for Reporting Capacity

All existing capacity resources (iron in the ground) must be reported in one of the “Existing” categories

• In cases where categorization is unclear or difficult to determine, report as “Other”

“Future” capacity resources have achieved one of the milestones outlined in the definition (some degree of confidence that the resource will become available)

• Milestones include permitting, site work, or contracting status

“Conceptual” category used to capture expected resources that are less certain or are still in the planning/development stages (i.e. resources that could not be classified as “Future”)

The goal of this Guidebook is to:• Improve consistency and transparency of assessments

• Increase granularity in assessments

• Outline the process to assess emerging industry issues

• Foundations/expectations/requirement for the NERC portion of the assessments

• Provide a framework for conducting comprehensive and independent assessments

This Guidebook will be a reference for regional entities and registered entities, and is organized to clarify reliability assessment expectations and objectives.

It is intended to document expectations and provide a comprehensive outline for reliability assessments.

RAG: Reliability Assessment GuidebookRAG: Reliability Assessment Guidebook

First Draft Completed, materials provided by

• RIS

• DCWG

• LFWG

• NERC Staff

Report being reviewed by RAG Task Force

Draft being Readied for October-November

RAG StatusRAG Status

June 15 Draft Outline Completed

June 30 Industry review of Draft Outline Completed

September 30 Review of Draft with RAG members

October 15 Guidebook preparation completed

December 5-6 Review final Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed by PC

December 30 Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed and launched

RAG Updated ScheduleRAG Updated Schedule

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #1DCWG 2008 Work Plans #1

Seasonal and Long-Term Reliability Assessment Guidebook Background: Regional entities perform reliability assessments using a variety of tools,

assumptions and methodology. There is a need to provide a guidebook, for the regional entities to use in preparation of the assessments and for peer reviewers to ensure consistency in the reliability assessments, outlining NERC’s expectations and forming a foundation for a sufficiently robust reliability assessment. The objectives of the reliability assessment guidebook are:

• Clarifying reliability assessment expectations

• Fortify peer review of assessments

• Address inconsistency in regional responses

• Ensure transparency

• Increase linkage between NERC staff and regional assessments

• Balancing areas that cross regional entity boundaries, especially regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs), may require attention as their assessment can be fragmented between two regions and may not accurately reflect reliability

The DCWG will contribute to the data collection portions of the LTRA Guidebook.

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #2DCWG 2008 Work Plans #2

Use of Scenario evaluations to incorporate emerging issues into LTRA

Background: he LTRA provides a reference case from which select scenarios can be compared. Identifying significant emerging issues should drive scenario development. A process has been proposed by the RAITF that includes RIS/TIS/RAS identification of emerging issues, survey of the PC membership to develop a risk matrix, vetting the results and development of reliability assessment for comparative purposes to the LTRA reference case. Once approved by the PC, materials to support this process and execution of the process are next steps.

DCWG will work with the Regional Entities to incorporate the data requirements for the 2009 and 2011 scenarios

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #3DCWG 2008 Work Plans #3

Metrics development for 1-5 and 6-10 years

Background: The certainty and granularity of long-term and seasonal reliability assessments are different between the 1-5 year and the 6-10 year timeframes of the 10-year LTRA. In addition, metrics are also needed for seasonal assessments to provide an indication of continuity between the operating and future planning horizons. Meaningful metrics (beyond just capacity margin) are required to more fully assess regional/subregional reliability and adequacy and achieve an appropriate level of granularity; this work will also include considerations about the data that needs to be collected to calculate these metrics.

DCWG will enhance the seasonal and LTRA data collection templates to support the metric collection

DCWG to develop data collection forms and instruction sheets to support the collection of data and metric requirements identified

DCWG will ready seasonal and LTRA templates for 2009 data collection by October 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #4DCWG 2008 Work Plans #4

Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes

The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC.

Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements.

• Report due to RAS in December 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #5DCWG 2008 Work Plans #5

Recommend changes to the data collected and the definitions to the RAS and PC.  

The DCWG will seek feedback from regional entities on the new supply and demand definitions proposed by RAITF, DSMTF and LFWG, approved by the PC. The DCWG will develop a summary of what worked and what needs further enhancements

Summarize the findings to RAS.

Report to RAS on seasonal and LTRA assessments for 2008 by:

• April for Summer

• May (LTRA)

• October for Winter

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #6DCWG 2008 Work Plans #6

Collaborative meetings  

• Annual meeting with EIA increasing coordination and providing input to EIA data collection activities.

• Actively engage other NERC Planning Committee groups to support the work plan

DCWG to actively participate in the reliability assessment improvement process by providing liaison as appropriate.

Provide periodic status reports to RAS during 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #7DCWG 2008 Work Plans #7

EIA 411 data collection 

• Collect data on behalf of the industry for the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) form 411

DCWG will submit data per EIA’s deadlines annually

• April of 2008

Update on Task 5 Update on Task 5 Data Collection Survey RecommendationsData Collection Survey Recommendations

Response1. NERC should send the data request in October rather

than January-February

2. NERC should revise the NERC Regions submittal deadline for the LTRA annual Data Collection efforts from March 31st to April 30th.

3. NERC should hold Workshops earlier to explain the forms, data expectations and schedules.

4. Address the status of the MOD standards and the implications for LSE, RC compliance.

Feedback from Regions Feedback from Regions on Winter and LTRA on Winter and LTRA FormsForms

Feedback & Comments

Update on Task 4Update on Task 4Review the NERC Analysis and ProcessesReview the NERC Analysis and Processes

Phil Fedora:

•Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes

•The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC.

•Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements.

•Report due to RAS in December 2008

Schedule Next Briefing Call for DCWGSchedule Next Briefing Call for DCWG

Final CommentsFinal Comments