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Identifying older patients at high risk of poor outcomes after joint replacement surgery
Webinar SeriesJanuary 10, 2018
Daniel McIsaac, MD, MPH, FRCPCOttawa Hospital Research Institute
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2018-01-10
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• Wednesday, January 31, 2018 at 12 noon ET (Tentative)Reducing post-discharge potentially inappropriate medications amongst the elderly: a multi-centre electronic deprescribing intervention – CFN-funded Catalyst Grant Program – Todd Campbell Lee and Emily McDonald, McGill University Health Centre
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2018-01-10
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Presenter
• Associate Scientist at the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute
• Assistant Professor in the Departments of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, and Epidemiology and Public Health at the University of Ottawa
• Adjunct Scientist at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) and an Anesthesiologist at The Ottawa Hospital
• On the Board of Directors for the Society for Geriatric Anesthesia
2018-01-10
Identifying older patients at high risk of poor outcomes after joint replacement surgery
Daniel McIsaac,MD, MPH, FRCPC
Affiliated with • Affilié à 1
IDENTIFYING HIGH RISK OLDER PEOPLE BEFORE SURGERY:
COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF TWO FRAILTY INSTRUMENTS TO PREDICT PATIENT-REPORTED
DISABILITY AFTER SURGERY
Daniel I McIsaac MD, MPH, FRCPC
on behalf of the Ottawa Perioperative Frailty Research Group
▶ No conflicts of interest
▶ Program funding:
• Canadian Frailty Network
• University of Ottawa Department of Anesthesiology
• TOHAMO
• Canadian Anesthesiologists’ Society
• International Anesthesia Research Society
▶ Collaborators
2
• Paul Beaule• Gregory Bryson• Alan Forster• Sylvain Gagne• Allen Huang• John Joanisse• Claire Kendall• Manoj Lalu• Sylvain Boet
• Luke Lavalee• Colin McCartney• Hussein Moloo• Julie Nantel• Janet Squires• Dawn Stacey• Monica Taljaard• Carl van
Walraven
▶ Review
• Epidemiology and outcomes of older people with frailty having surgery
• Current recommendations for frailty assessment before surgery
• Comparative accuracy of the Clinical Frailty Scale vs the modified Fried Index in predicting new patient-reported disability after surgery
3
OUTLINE
Affiliated with • Affilié à 4
OUR AGEING POPULATION:IMPACT ON PERIOPERATIVE CARE
Affiliated with • Affilié à 5Etzioni, Ann Surg, 2001
Affiliated with • Affilié à 6
Affiliated with • Affilié à 7
>50% of major surgery in people >65 y.o.
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Advanced age is associated with 2-4 fold increase in
• Morbidity
• Mortality
• Costs
AGE AND PERIOPERATIVE RISK
81. Hamel et al. JAGS 2005; 2. Turrentine et al. JACS 2006
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Significant outcome variation amongst older surgical population
• Not explained by age and comorbidity burden
OUTCOME VARIATION IN OLDER PEOPLE
9Oresanya, JAMA, 2014
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Preoperative frailty predicts
• Mortality
• Morbidity
• ICU admission
• Length of stay
• Institutional discharge
FRAILTY AND SURGICAL OUTCOMES
101. Beggs CJA 2015; 2. Marcantonio, AIM, 2017
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Preoperative frailty predicts
• Mortality
• Morbidity
• ICU admission
• Length of stay
• Institutional discharge
▶ Estimated 35-45% prevalence
FRAILTY AND SURGICAL OUTCOMES
111. Beggs CJA 2015; 2. Marcantonio, AIM, 2017
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Morbidity & mortality
• 25-40% attributable risk
FRAILTY ATTRIBUTABLE RISK
12
Affiliated with • Affilié à 13
PERIOPERATIVE CARE
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ad
just
ed
HR
Post-operative day
HR 95%CI
Impact of frailty on mortality by post-operative day
McIsaac et al. JAMA Surgery 2016
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ 3-5 fold increase
• 30-50% absolute incidence
LOSS OF INDEPENDENCE
141. McIsaac et al. BJJ 2016; 2. McIsaac et al. Anes Analg 2017
Affiliated with • Affilié à
▶ Older people commonly have surgery
▶ Frailty prevalence >35%
▶ Significant increase in risk of adverse outcomes
▶ Consistent across surgical specialties and frailty instruments
SUMMARY
15
Affiliated with • Affilié à 16
PERIOPERATIVE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM AND FRAILTY
PERIOPERATIVE CARE
17
IntraoperativePreoperative Postoperative
PERIOPERATIVE CARE
18
IntraoperativePreoperative Postoperative
• Evaluation• Decision making• Care planning• Optimization
• Anesthesia• Surgery• Pain management • Acute monitoring
• Pain management• Recovery/rehabilitation• Transition to community
TARGETS FOR IMPROVING CARE
19
IntraoperativePreoperative Postoperative
• Evaluation• Decision making• Care planning• Optimization
• Anesthesia• Surgery• Pain management • Acute monitoring
• Pain management• Recovery/rehabilitation• Transition to community
TARGETS FOR IMPROVING CARE
20
IntraoperativePreoperative Postoperative
• Evaluation
▶ What instrument?
▶ What outcome?
▶ How to implement?
TARGETS FOR IMPROVING CARE
21
IntraoperativePreoperative Postoperative
• Evaluation
▶ What instrument?
▶ What outcome?
▶ How to implement?
CHALLENGES
▶ 100’s of frailty instruments
▶ Literature to date limited to non-patient reported outcomes
▶ Time and resource limited clinical areas
22
Affiliated with • Affilié à 23
WHAT TOOL?
WHAT TOOL?
24Chow et al, JACS, 2012
WHAT TOOL?
▶ Modified Fried Index
25Chow et al, JACS, 2012
-low activity-weight loss-falls-grip strength-gait speed
WHAT COMPARATOR TOOL?
26
WHAT TOOL?
▶ Clinical Frailty Scale
27
WHAT TOOL?
▶ Clinical Frailty Scale
• Well-validated in acute care
• Good inter-rater reliability
• Similar prognostic accuracy vs 30+ item indices
28
WHAT OUTCOME?
29
WHAT OUTCOME?
▶ Mortality, morbidity, LOS, etc. well-reported
▶ Patient-reported and functional outcomes rarely reported
30
WHAT OUTCOME?
▶ Patient reported new disability
• World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0
31
WHAT OUTCOME?
▶ Patient reported new disability
• World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0
- 100 point scale
- 8 point MICD
- 25 point cut off for disability, or 8 points higher than baseline
32
WHAT OUTCOME?
▶ Patient reported new disability
• World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0
- Standing
- Household responsibilities
- Learning a new task
- Community activities
- Emotional impact
- Concentration
- Walking
- Getting dressed
- Dealing with new people
- Friendships
- Day to day tasks or work
33
WHAT OUTCOME?
▶ Patient reported new disability
• World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0
• Validated in surgery and many other acute/chronic conditions
34Shulman, Anes, 2014
Affiliated with • Affilié à 35
RESEARCH QUESTION
RESEARCH QUESTION
▶ Population: People >65 years having major elective non-cardiac surgery
▶ Exposure: Preoperative frailty
▶ Comparators: CFS vs. mFI
▶ Outcomes:
• Primary: Patient-reported new disability 90 days after surgery
36
RESEARCH QUESTION
▶ Population: People >65 years having major elective non-cardiac surgery
▶ Exposure: Preoperative frailty
▶ Comparators: CFS vs. mFI
▶ Outcomes:
• Primary: Patient-reported new disability 90 days after surgery
• Secondary:
- Feasibility
- Acceptability
- Complications, LOS, discharge disposition, survival
37
Affiliated with • Affilié à 38
DESIGN
DESIGN
▶ Multicenter prospective cohort study
39
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4040
• Frailty-CFS/mFI• Co-morbidities• Mood/Anxiety• Substance use• Cognitive screen• Baseline disability
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4141
• Frailty-CFS/mFI• Co-morbidities• Mood/Anxiety• Substance use• Cognitive screen• Baseline disability
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4242
• LOS• Complications• Discharge disposition
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4343
• Mortality• Disability• Anxiety/Depression
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4444
• Mortality• Disability• Anxiety/Depression• Decisional regret
Affiliated with • Affilié à
4545
• Mortality• Disability• Anxiety/Depression• Health resource use
Affiliated with • Affilié à 46
ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
▶ Primary:
• Relative true positive rate (rTPR; ratio of sensitivities)
• Relative false positive rate (rFPR; ratio of 1-specificity)
47Alonzo, Stat Med, 2002
ANALYSIS
▶ Primary:
• Relative true positive rate (rTPR; ratio of sensitivities)
• Relative false positive rate (rFPR; ratio of 1-specificity)
▶ Sample size
• Expected rate new disability 18%
• Sensitivity mFI 60%
• 648 participants
- 80% power, alpha 5% for rTPR 1.3
48Alonzo, Stat Med, 2002
ANALYSIS
▶ Primary:
• Relative true positive rate (rTPR; ratio of sensitivities)
• Relative false positive rate (rFPR; ratio of 1-specificity)
▶ Sample size
• Expected rate new disability 18%
• Sensitivity mFI 60%
• 648 participants
- 80% power, alpha 5% for rTPR 1.3
49Alonzo, Stat Med, 2002
n=700 allows 15% attrition
ANALYSIS
▶ Primary:
• Relative true positive rate (rTPR; ratio of sensitivities)
• Relative false positive rate (rFPR; ratio of 1-specificity)
▶ Sample size
• Expected rate new disability 18%
• Sensitivity mFI 60%
• 648 participants
- 80% power, alpha 5% for rTPR 1.3
50Alonzo, Stat Med, 2002
n=700 allows 15% attrition
Dichotomization:CFS->4mFI>3
ANALYSIS
▶ Effect sizes (ORs, RRs, ARDs)
▶ ROC analyses
51
Affiliated with • Affilié à 52
RESULTS
RESULTS
53
96%
93%
RESULTS
▶ Mean age
• 73 (SD 6) years
▶ Female
• 49%
▶ Comorbidity score
• 2 (IQR 1-3)
54
RESULTS
▶ Mean age
• 73 (SD 6) years
▶ Female
• 49%
▶ Comorbidity score
• 2 (IQR 1-3)
▶ Surgical Specialty
•
55
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Other
Neuro
Gynecology
Urology
General
Thoracics
Vascular
Orthopedics
Percent of cohort
FRAILTY STATUS
▶ CFS > 4
• 42%
▶ mFI > 3
• 37%
56
FRAILTY STATUS
▶ CFS > 4
• 42%
▶ mFI > 3
• 37%
▶ Agreement
• Kappa=0.51
57
DISABILITY
▶ 90-day
• 10 patients deceased (1.5%)
• 11.1% experienced death or new disability
58
FRAILTY STATUS AND NEW DISABILITY
▶ CFS
59
0 10 20 30 40 50
Without frailty
With frailty 15.5%
7.9%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Without frailty
With frailty
FRAILTY STATUS AND NEW DISABILITY
▶ CFS
▶ mFI
60
0 10 20 30 40 50
Without frailty
With frailty
16.7%
7.8%
15.5%
7.9%
CFS VS MFI
▶ CFS
• Sensitivity – 60%
• Specificity – 59%
61
CFS VS MFI
▶ CFS
• Sensitivity – 60%
• Specificity – 59%
62
▶ mFI
• Sensitivity – 56%
• Specificity – 65%
CFS VS MFI
▶ CFS
• Sensitivity – 60%
• Specificity – 59%
63
▶ mFI
• Sensitivity – 56%
• Specificity – 65%
Relative True Positive Rate
1.07 (0.86-1.29)
CFS VS MFI
▶ CFS
• Sensitivity – 60%
• Specificity – 59%
64
▶ mFI
• Sensitivity – 56%
• Specificity – 65%
Relative True Positive Rate
1.07 (0.86-1.29)Relative False Positive Rate
0.90 (0.80-1.01)
EFFECT SIZES
▶ Died or new disability
• CFS >4:
- OR-2.15 (95%CI 1.30-3.54)
• mFI >3:
- OR-2.36 (95%CI 1.44-3.88)
65
DISCRIMINATION-AREA UNDER THE ROC (AUC)
66
Affiliated with • Affilié à
CFS: AUC=0.59mFI: AUC=0.61
Affiliated with • Affilié à
CFS: AUC=0.59mFI: AUC=0.61
P=0.75
Affiliated with • Affilié à
DISABILITY TRAJECTORY
Affiliated with • Affilié à
DISABILITY TRAJECTORY
DECREASING DISABILITY
▶ Repeated measures analysis
• Significantly greater decrease in disability for people with frailty
- -8.1 (95%CI -9.1 to -7.1); P<0.0001
71
FEASIBILITY
72
FEASIBILITY
▶ Time to administer
• CFS
- 42 seconds (IQR 20-50)
• mFI
- 300 seconds (IQR 240-360)
73
FEASIBILITY
▶ Time to administer
• CFS
- 42 seconds (IQR 20-50)
• mFI
- 300 seconds (IQR 240-360)
74
▶ Missing data
• CFS
- 0%
• mFI
- 17%
ACCEPTABILITY
Very or extremely CFS mFI Difference
Easy to use 90%
Useful in practice 70%
Beneficial to care 46%
Easy logistically 94%
75Brehaut, Med Dec Making, 2010
ACCEPTABILITY
Very or extremely CFS mFI Difference
Easy to use 90% 47% 43%
Useful in practice 70% 47% 23%
Beneficial to care 46% 44% 2%
Easy logistically 94% 47% 47%
76
ACCEPTABILITY
Very or extremely CFS mFI Difference
Easy to use 90% 47% 43%
Useful in practice 70% 47% 23%
Beneficial to care 46% 44% 2%
Easy logistically 94% 47% 47%
77
▶ 71% of patients willing or extremely willing to participate in preoperative frailty assessment
• Only 0.5% unwilling
SUMMARY
▶ CFS vs mFI
• No significant difference in
- Sensitivity
- False positive rates
- Discrimination
• CFS was superior based on
- Less missing data
- Faster time for administration
- Higher acceptability score
78
SUMMARY
▶ CFS vs mFI
• No significant difference in
- Sensitivity
- False positive rates
- Discrimination
• CFS was superior based on
- Less missing data
- Faster time for administration
- Higher acceptability scores
▶ Disability trajectory and preoperative frailty
• People with frailty before surgery have a greater decrease in disability after surgery
79
Affiliated with • Affilié à 80
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
IMPLEMENTATION OF PREOP FRAILTY ASSESSMENT
▶ Qualitative theory based interviews
• Theoretical Domains Framework
- Anesthesiologists, surgeons, preoperative nurses
81
IMPLEMENTATION OF PREOP FRAILTY ASSESSMENT
▶ Qualitative theory based interviews
• Theoretical Domains Framework
▶ Preliminary results – Barriers and Facilitators
82
BARRIERS AND FACILITATORS
▶ Knowledge
• Familiar with concept, unable to define
• Understand large impact on outcomes
▶ Professional role
• Appropriate to screen for frailty before surgery
▶ Beliefs
• Easy to perform
▶ Goals
• Assessing for frailty is important
83
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE OUTCOMES
84
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE OUTCOMES
85
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE OUTCOMES
▶ Only 11 studies identified
• All moderate to high risk of bias
- 6 RCTs
86
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE OUTCOMES
▶ Only 11 studies identified
• Exercise (pre- and post-op) promising
- Well-powered low risk of bias studies needed
87
88
▶ 200 patient, parallel arm RCT
• P->65, frail per CFS
• I-home-based exercise >3 weeks preop
• C-standard care
• O-Six minute walk test at first postop followup visit
89
▶ 200 patient, parallel arm RCT
• P->65, frail per CFS
• I-home-based exercise >3 weeks preop
• C-standard care
• O-Six minute walk test at first postop followup visit
90
Already largest trial of preoperative exercise in people with frailty!
FINAL SUMMARY
▶ Frailty is:
• prevalent before major surgery
• associated with increased rates of new disability
91
FINAL SUMMARY
▶ Frailty is:
• prevalent before major surgery
• associated with increased rates of new disability
▶ The Clinical Frailty Scale is:
• prognostically equivalent to the mFI
• more feasible and acceptable than the mFI for preop use
92
FINAL SUMMARY
▶ Frailty is:
• prevalent before major surgery
• associated with increased rates of new disability
▶ The Clinical Frailty Scale is:
• prognostically equivalent to the mFI
• more feasible and acceptable than the mFI for preop use
▶ Older people with frailty before surgery:
• Experience a greater overall decrease in disability after surgery
93
FINAL SUMMARY
▶ Frailty is:
• prevalent before major surgery
• associated with increased rates of new disability
▶ The Clinical Frailty Scale is:
• prognostically equivalent to the mFI
• more feasible and acceptable than the mFI for preop use
▶ Older people with frailty before surgery:
• Experience a greater overall decrease in disability after surgery
▶ Interventions specifically designed for people with frailty having surgery are urgently needed
94
THANK YOU
▶ Periop frailty team
95Erin Beasley
Chelsey Saunders
Kristin Dorrance
Emily Hladkowicz
Coralie Wong
96
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Register at:http://www.cfn-nce.ca/news-and-events-overview/webinars/• Wednesday, January 31, 2018 at 12 noon ET (Tentative)
Reducing post-discharge potentially inappropriate medications amongst the elderly: a multi-centre electronic deprescribing intervention – CFN-funded Catalyst Grant Program – Todd Campbell Lee and Emily McDonald, McGill University Health Centre
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