Daily Metals and Energy Report, June 28 2013

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International Commodities

Content Overview

Precious Metals

Energy

Base Metals

Important Events for today

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International CommoditiesOverview

• India’s CAD was 3.6 percent of GDP in Q4 of FY 20

• US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 346,000 for w

• German Unemployment Change fell to -12,000 in

• US Pending Home Sales increased by 6.7 percent i

• Japan’s Industrial Production grew by 2 percent i

Asian markets are trading higher today on th

economic data from US and Japan showing signs of

economy. Further, statement from the Fed mem

bank will not reduce its stimulus measures unti

orecast acted as a positive factor for market senti

US Initial Jobless Claims declined by 9,000 to 3

ending on 21st

June as against a rise of 355,000 in

ncome rose by 0.5 percent in May from 0.1 perc

Spending gained around 0.3 percent in last month

0.3 percent in April. Pending Home Sales increased

with respect to drop of 0.5 percent a month ago.

ndia’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) was 3.6 perce

2012-13 from earlier levels of 6.7 percent in Q3 of

2012-13, CAD was at 4.8 percent an increase from 4

12.

The US Dollar Index (DX) closed on a flat note i

ession on the back of rise in risk appetite in the glo

o fall in demand for the currency. Further, favo

rom the US and assurance from Fed officials that t

cut stimulus measures until its forecast for inflatio

are met capped gains in the currency. The DX touch

83.02 and closed at 83.15 on Thursday.

The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent

ession on account of decline in CAD of India, whi

ide against the expectations. Additionally, boun

equities and weakness in the DX supported an upsid

Long-term economic concerns still persist and coul

n the Rupee as outflow of foreign funds continu

debt markets. Indian Rupee touched an intra-da

closed at 60.19 against dollar on Thursday.

For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled a

$1,713.05 million) as on 27th

June 2013. Year to

nflows stood at Rs.73,021.0 crores ($13,639.90

2013.

UK’s Current Account was at a deficit of 14.5 billion

as against an earlier deficit of 13.6 billion in Q4

Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at

quarter of current year.


w

12-13.

/e on 21st June.

the last month.

n the month of May.

previous month.

e back of favorable

recovery in the global

bers that the central

l it meets the Fed’s

ents.

6,000 for the week

prior week. Personal

ent in April. Personal

s compared to fall of

by 6.7 percent in May

nt of GDP in Q4 of FY

Y 2012-13. For the FY

.2 percent in FY 2011-

n yesterday’s trading

bal markets which led

rable economic data

he central bank won’t

n and the job market

ed an intra-day low of

in yesterday’s trading

h came on a positive

ce back in domestic

e in the currency.

lead to depreciation

es from equities and

y high of 60.10 and

t Rs.10,184.10 crores

ate basis, net capital

million) till 27th

June

Pounds in Q1 of 2013

of 2012. Final Gross

0.3 percent in first

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev da

INR/$

(Spot)

60.19 0.

$/Euro

(Spot)

1.3035 0.

Dollar

Index

83.15 -0.

NIFTY 5682.4 1.

SENSEX 18876.0 1.

DJIA 15024.5 0.

S&P 1613.2 0.

The Euro appreciated 0.2 per

back of weakness in the DX. F

from the region coupled with

sentiments also supported an

touched an intra-day high of

against the dollar on Thursday.

German Import Prices declin

against a previous fall of

Unemployment Change fell t

17,000 in April. European Ra

rose by 2.3 points to 49.1-mar

46.8-level in May.

Japan’s Manufacturing Purc

increased by 0.8 points to 52.3

51.5-level in April. Tokyo Core

by 0.2 percent in May

Unemployment Rate remained

month of May. Industrial Prod

as compared to rise of 0.9 pe

gained by 0.8 percent in last

percent in April.

Report ne 28, 2013


as on 27 June, 2013

y w-o-w m-o-m

9 -1.0 -8.3

2 -1.4 0.8

1 1.3 0.1

7 0.5 -6.6

7 0.8 -5.8

8 1.8 -0.6

6 1.6 -2.2

Source:

ent in yesterday’s trade on

rther, favorable economic

recovery in the global ma

pside in the currency. The

1.3056 and closed at 1.3

ed by 0.4 percent in May

.4 percent in April. Ger

-12,000 in May from ris

Materials Price Index (RM

k in June with respect to ris

asing Managers' Index (P

-mark in May as against a ris

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

from 0.1 percent in A

unchanged at 4.1 percent in

ction grew by 2 percent in

rcent a month ago. Retail S

onth with respect to fall of




ullion

old

ot gold prices fell sharply 2.1 percent in yesterda

account of decline in the SPDR gold holdings w

rcent this year and is at the lowest level sincowever, weakness in the DX along with assurance

at stimulus measures won’t be cut until Fed exp

shioned sharp fall in the prices. The yellow metal

y low of $1197.10/oz and closed at $1199.80/

ading session.

the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative n

rcent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupe

osed at Rs.25375/10 gms after touching a low of

Thursday.

lver

king cues from fall in gold prices, Spot silver pric

rcent in the yesterday’s trade. However, weaknes

th positive movement in the base metals group

wnside pressure in the prices. The white metal tou

w of $18.34/oz and closed at $18.50/oz in yesterda

n the domestic front, prices fell 2 percent on accou

the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.38,796/kg after

.38,625/kg on Thursday.

utlook

ecious metals prices are expected to recover slig

om Fed officials yesterday that stimulus measures

mediately. Hence, prices will get support on

rchasing program will continue. Weakness in th

sitive factor. However, decline in SPDR holdings

essure on the prices

the Indian markets, bearish trend is expecte

preciation in the Rupee.

chnical Outlook valid for J

Unit Support

pot Gold $/oz 1193/1186

MCX Gold Aug’13 Rs/10 gms 25200/25050

pot Silver $/oz 18.70/18.40

MCX Silver July’13 Rs/kg 38500/38100


w

Market Highlights - Gold (% chang

Gold Unit Last

Gold (Spot) $/oz 1199.8

Gold (Spot -

Mumbai)

Rs/10

gms

25950.0

Gold

(LBMA-PM

Fix) $/oz 1232.8

Comex Gold

(August’13)

$/oz 1211.4

MCX Gold

(August’13)

Rs /10

gms

25375.0

Market Highlights - Silver (% chang

Silver Unit Last

Silver

(Spot)

$/oz 18.5

Silver

(Spot -

Mumbai) Rs/1 kg 40380.0

Silver

(LBMA) $/oz 1861.0

ComexSilver

(July’13)

$/ oz 18.5

MCX Silver

(July’13) Rs / kg 38796.0

Technical Chart – Spot Gold

’s trading session

ich has fallen 28

February 2009.from Fed officials

ctations are met

touched an intra-

oz in yesterday’s

ote, declining 2.9

e. The commodity

s. 25265/10 gms

es fell around 0.3

s in the DX along

cushioned sharp

ched an intra-day

’s trade.

nt of appreciation

touching a low of

tly on statement

on’t be curtailed

hopes that bond

DX will act as a

ill add downside

on account of

une 28, 2013

Resistance

1207/1216

25500/25700

19.10/19.40

39400/39900

Report ne 28, 2013


) as on 27 June, 2013

Prev.

dayWoW MoM

-2.1 -6.1 -13.9

-0.2 -3.9 -1.8

-0.3 -4.6 -10.4

-1.5 -6.2 -14.2

-2.9 -5.6 -4.0

Source

e) as on 27 June, 2013

Prev day WoW MoM

-0.3 -5.7 -18.5

-0.7 -6.5 -10.2

-0.3 -8.1 -16.8

0.0 -7.1 -18.4

-2.0 -6.1 -11.0

Source

Source: T




nergy

rude Oil

ymex crude oil prices increased around 1.6 per

ade; taking cues from favorable jobless claims and

ta from US which increased the expectations of risel.

rther, statement from Fed official’s that stimulus s

opped until central banks forecast for inflation a

et supported an upside in prices. Crude oil prices t

gh of $97.41/bbl and closed at $97.10/bbl in

ssion.

n the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.9 perc

.5,845/bbl after touching a high of Rs.5,867

ppreciation in the Rupee capped gains in prices on t

atural Gas

ymex natural gas prices declined by more t

sterday’s trade on the back of more than expecte

s inventories.

owever, sharp downside in prices was cushion

eakness in the DX along with forecast for warm

hich will lead to increase in demand for air cond

uched an intra-day low of $3.556/mmbtu

3.599/mmbtu on Thursday.

the Indian markets, prices fell around 4.3 per

ppreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.51.80/m

intra-day low of Rs.215.40/mmbtu in yesterday’s t

A Inventories Data

S Energy Information Administration (EIA) rel

ventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory i

pectations by 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) which sto

bic feet for the week ending on 21st June 2013.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect crude

gher on the back of bounce back in global ma

eakness in the DX. Further, statement from F

rtailing its stimulus measures until central banks f

pport an upside in prices. Additionally, expectat

onomic data from Euro Zone and US will act as a p

dian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will cap

ices.

chnical Outlook valid

Unit Supp

NYMEX Crude Oil $/bbl 96.50/95.

MCX Crude July’13 Rs/bbl 5800/57


w

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% c

Crude Oil Unit Last

Brent

(Spot) $/bbl 104.1

Nymex

Crude (Aug

’13)

$/bbl 97.1

ICE Brent

Crude

(Aug’13)

$/bbl 102.8

MCX Crude

(July ’13) Rs/bbl 5845.0

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

NaturalGas (NG)

Unit Last Pre

Nymex

NG

$/mmbtu 3.599

MCX NG

(June

’13)

Rs/

mmbtu

215.8

Technical Chart – NYMEX Crude

Technical Chart – NYMEX Natural

ent in yesterday’s

ending home sales

in demand for the

pending will not be

d job markets are

uched an intra-day

esterday’s trading

ent and closed at

bbl on Thursday.

he MCX.

an 4 percent in

d rise in US natural

ed on account of

eather conditions

itioners. Gas prcies

and closed at

ent as a result of

btu after touching

rade.

leased its weekly

creased more than

od at 2.533 trillion

oil prices to trade

kets coupled with

d officials of not

recast are met will

ions of favourable

sitive factor. In the

sharp gains in oil

for June 28, 2013

rt Resistance

0 98.10/99.0

0 5900/5950

Report ne 28, 2013


ange) as on 27 June, 2013

Prev.

dayWoW MoM

-0.2 1.1 0.0

1.6 1.7 5.5

1.1 0.7 0.2

0.9 2.0 12.0

Source

(% change) as on 27 June, 2013

. day WoW MoM

-4.1 -7.05 -14.78

-4.3 -7.42 -9.82

Source

il

Source: T

Gas

Source: T




ase Metals

e base metals pack traded on positive note in the y

the back of rise in pending homes sales data wh

vel since 2006. Additionally, weakness in t

employment claims and bounce back in mapported an upside in prices.

rther, statement from Fed official’s that stimulus s

stopped until central banks forecast for inflation

e met acted as positive factor.

the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee

essure for prices on the MCX.

opper

pper prices traded on a flat note and gained

sterday’s trade on the back of favourable economrther, weakness in the DX coupled with decline

ventories which fell 0.5 percent and stood at 667,4

a positive factor. The red metal touched an i

800/tonne and closed at $6736.25/tonne in yes

ssion.

dditionally, recovery in global markets coupled with

d officials supported an upside in prices.

n the domestic front, prices fell 1.2 percent

preciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 403.80/k

intra-day low of Rs.403.50/kg on Thursday.

utlook

today’s trading session, we expect base metals to

count of bounce back in global markets coupled

e DX. Further, statement from Fed officials of

mulus measures until central banks forecast are

upside in prices. Additionally, expectations

onomic data from Euro Zone and US will act as a p

e Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will c

prices.

chnical Outlook valid for June 28, 2

Unit Support

CX Copper June’13 Rs /kg 400/397

CX Zinc June ’13 Rs /kg 108.0/107.0

CX Lead June ’13 Rs /kg 121.50/120.50

CX Aluminum June’13 Rs /kg 102.80/101.80

CX Nickel June ’13 Rs /kg 817/811


w

esterday’s trade

ich is at highest

e DX, fall in

ket sentiments

pending will not

and job markets

dded downside

arginally in the

ic data from US.in LME copper

25 tonnes acted

tra-day high of

terday’s trading

statement from

on account of

g, after touching

trade higher on

ith weakness in

ot curtailing its

et will support

of favourable

ositive factor. In

p sharp gains in

013

Resistance

406/409

110.0/111.0

123.50/124.50

104.50/105.50

835/842

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% ch

Unit Last

LME Copper (3

month)

$/tonne 6736.3

MCX Copper

(June’13)

Rs/kg 403.8

LME Aluminum

(3 month)

$/tonne 1772.3

MCX Aluminum

(June’13)

Rs /kg 103.6

LME Nickel

(3 month)

$/tonne 13827.0

MCX Nickel

(June’13)

Rs /kg 825.5

LME Lead

(3 month)

$/tonne 2048.5

MCX Lead

(June’13)

Rs /kg 122.5

LME Zinc

(3 month)

$/tonne 1849.0

MCX Zinc

(June’13)

Rs /kg 109.1

LME Inventories

Unit 27th

June

Copper tonnes 667,425

Aluminum tonnes 5,442,475

Nickel tonnes 187,644

Zinc tonnes 1,057,700

Lead tonnes 198,000

Technical Chart – LME Copper

Report ne 28, 2013


ange) as on 27 June, 2013

Prev. day WoW MoM

0.0 -0.5 -14.1

-1.2 -0.2 -0.9

0.0 -1.6 -4.3

-1.5 -2.0 2.5

1.4 0.9 -7.1

0.0 0.6 0.8

0.9 1.1 -3.2

-0.6 1.4 6.0

0.5 0.8 -1.1

-0.6 1.1 7.1

Source

26th

June Actual

Change

671,100 -3,675

5,448,000 -5,525

187,956 -312

1,062,950 -5,250

194,600 3,400

Source

Source:




Important Events for Today

Indicator Country

Household Spending y/y Japan

Tokyo Core CPI y/y Japan

Prelim Industrial Production m/m Japan

Retail Sales y/y Japan

German Retail Sales m/m Euro

Nationwide HPI m/m UK

German Prelim CPI m/m Euro

French Consumer Spending m/m Euro

EU Economic Summit Euro

FOMC Member Stein Speaks US

Chicago PMI US

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment US


Time (IST) Actual Forecast Pre

5:00am -1.6% 1.5% 1

5:00am 0.2% 0.2% 0

5:20am 2.0% 0.2% 0

5:20am 0.8% 0.1% -0

11:30am - 0.4% -0

11:30am - 0.4% 0

All Day - 0.0% 0

12:15pm - 0.0% -0

Day 2 - -

5:30pm - -

7:15pm - 55.5 5

7:25pm - 83.1 8

Report ne 28, 2013

ious Impact

.5% Medium

.1% Medium

.9% Medium

.2% Medium

.4% Medium

.4% Medium

.4% Medium

.3% Medium

- Medium

- Medium

8.7 Medium

2.7 Medium

Documents

Daily Metals and Energy Report, June 28 2013