U University of Tokyo I Institute of Social Science P Panel Survey Discussion Paper Series !""" - 23 [V%[Y*)V e_bhaZ\^[%XY&([`gk -dcf' TBSF24 ["W] =FKFSBLDFP MG >DIMMKP0 >QREFLQ ;MBL0 9RPCBLE/P 6IJKE1OFBOJLH BLE <FODFNQJML 8BNP @PJLH 7UBEJD 7BQB5 ?IF =FPRKQP MG QIF :;<>19 ABSF24 #i,j i!j +$i!j Yurie MOMOSE, Yasufumi YAMAGUCHI, Fumiko SUZUKI November 2020 No.125 ! INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO

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UUniversity of Tokyo IInstitute of Social Science

PPanel Survey

Discussion Paper Series

Yurie MOMOSE, Yasufumi YAMAGUCHI, Fumiko SUZUKI

November 2020

No.125

INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO
× No.125

2020 11

15 wave16

× ×

2019 10 15

wave16

16 23

4 3 2

330

4 wave15

S 22223005 C 25381122

B 16H03778 H16

018 ×× ×

× ×
1

1.

× 2004 3

JLPS-H×

wave1 2004 1 3 4 1013 7,563

2004 10wave2 16 wave4 web

2 3 web wave2wave4 w15

wave1

16 1

6 1

2019 10 wave16

424 131 290 3 33 342

wave1 2004 1 17-18 7563 69.1%wave2 2004 10 18-19 501 24.6% 483 23.7%wave3 2005 10 19-20 670 33.3%wave4 2006 10 20-21 547 27.8% 348 17.8%wave5 2008 10 22-23 530 27.6%wave6 2009 10 23-24 465 25.0%wave7 2010 10 24-25 515 29.3%wave8 2011 10 25-26 505 29.3%wave9 2012 10 26-27 514 30.7%wave10 2013 10 27-28 484 29.8%wave11 2014 10 28-29 465 29.6%wave12 2015 10 29-30 463 30.0%wave13 2016 10 30-31 451 30.2%wave14 2017 10 31-32 490 33.5%wave15 2018 10 32-33 442 30.9% 181 70.2%wave16 2019 10 33-34 424 26.3% 183 70.9%
2

3 4 3

2

COVID-19

3010 15

4

2 5 4 3 1

2 12

3
3

2

3

4

5

28.6% 38.3% 37.6%

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%

2009(n=461)

2012(n=498)

2015(n=380)

2019(n=354)

47.6% 56.8%59.0%

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%

2009(n=461)

2012(n=498)

2015(n=380)

2019(n=354)

33.3%48.1% 43.8%

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%

2009(n=461)

2012(n=498)

2015(n=380)

2019(n=354)

69.8% 84.0% 80.5%

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%

2009(n=461)

2012(n=498)

2015(n=380)

2019(n=354)
4

6

210

6

37.5%

63.6%

84.6%

35.0%42.9%

26.0%36.4%

20.0%

36.4%

50.0%

72.7%

88.5%

70.0%76.5%

63.5%54.5%

40.0%

54.5%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

8 4 4 01 0

01

8 4 4 01 0

01

8 4 4 01 0

01

4 5

2

3 18
5

7

8

wave16

4

42.5%

70.0%

49.0%

89.8%

45.2%

81.9%

18.2%

72.7%

50.0%

80.0%

40.0%

76.4%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

37.5%

75.0%

48.0%

92.0%

42.7%

83.3%

30.0%

66.7%

51.7%

75.9%

46.7%

73.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

* * *
6

7 10

9

10

5

29.7%

73.0%

50.0%

90.7%

44.5%

84.1%

40.0%

68.0%

48.0%

76.0%

40.0%

66.7%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

* * *

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

* *
7

2

3

2019 Wave16 1170

10 20 30

18.9

2013×
8

300

11 33 34

1

33 34

12 13

1 12 33 34

20.6 17.9

15 Cramér's V=
9

0.351 13 25 60 44.0 1520 32.7

2

2 4 4 4

A BC D

14

15 Cramér's V=0.311 15 D 0

15 55.6 B 20 2558.3 A C 50 A

0 15 37.5 C 25 6034.3

14 15

3

30

16

20.6

15.317
10

16 17

2 30

19 20 2006 Wave3 20 21

2007 Wave418

2006 Wave331.6 68.4

2007 Wave4

28.571.5 2006 Wave3 31.6 2007 Wave4 26.5

30

19 2006 Wave3 2007 Wave42019 Wave16 49.3 1

2006 Wave3 2007 Wave4

2019 Wave16 21.92006 Wave3 2007 Wave4

2019 Wave16 28.8 3

1 2006 Wave3 2007 Wave4

2019 Wave16
11

18 19

1 20 35.1

26.6

20 21

2 21 5 Cramér's

V=0.228 A 57.1 D

73.9 B C B24.6 C 34.4

3 22
12

22 23

3

23

300 95.325.5

2020

.

30

2018 wave15

×
13

138

4 75 6 7 6.5 1 4 5

4.5 1 2 3 2.5 1 10

243 4

24 vs

25
14

25

26

1

26

25.2 52.9 21.6 23.7 46.329.6 21.8 50.0 28.1 29.7 41.3 28.8

52.9 41.3
15

25 1

0 1 3 4

4 4 4 1 n 51 0 n=31 1 4

n=56

4 4

27

27

n=138

3.4 3.6 1
16

3.0 3.73.4 1

t

28

1 3.4

3.010 3.6

3.4
17

2013

× ! :
S 2006 2009 2010 2014 C 2013

2016 2015 2017 A 2015 2018B 2016 2020 2018 2024

2004 2006

2006

2008
https://csrda.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/panel/