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DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Designing the Best
Paul D. Collopy
DFM Consulting, Inc.
Urbana IL
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Declining Enthusiasm for Complex Systems
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
$1,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year Entered Service
Cos
t (20
01 C
onst
ant $
thou
sand
s)
Production Tactical Aircraft
Much data drawn from Augustine’s Laws, Norm Augustine, 1998, p. 105
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Time
Per
form
ance
design testing production
Cos
t
+50%
-5%
Typical Cost Growth and Performance Erosion
Hoping for little — Achieving less
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Designing the Best
• What is “Designing the Best?”
• Engineering Complex Systems
• Comparison to Good Enough Design
• Complex Adaptive Systems
• Conclusion
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Understanding “Better”
Design A
Efficiency 90%Weight 700
Manufacturing Cost 700
Maintenance Cost 500
Reliability 1500
Rank
Maintainability 7.8
Support Equipment 12Radar Cross-Section 0.11InfraRed Signature 1.4
Can also include development time, technical risk, etc.
Design B Design C
92%750
690
600
12009.5
100.101.2
89%600
750
530
14008.0
120.111.5
1st 2nd 3rd
Attributes }Ordinal
Function Rank
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Good Enough versus Best
Requirements
< $30 M unit mfg cost
< 30,000 lbs. w
eight
Cost
Weight(0,0)
Best
Cost
Weight(0,0)
Increasing Score
Traditional Spec Method Designing the Best
Limit of Feasibility
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Engineering Complex Systems
• History of Complex Systems
• Superplans
• Modular Design
• Coordinated Design
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
The Rise of Complex Systems
After WW II, we discovered the ability to create complex systems by building formal engineering organizations with thousands of members
Complexity is a measure of the number of parts and the design interactions among the parts
shipsautomobiles
aircraft
launch systems
power gen
computersspacecraft
networks
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
software
networksaircraft
Com
plex
ity
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Complex System Design = Superplan
• The design of a system is a set of plans– for manufacturing the system
– for operating the system
– maintaining, distributing, marketing, and more
• The design of a complex system is distributed across many minds– can be beyond any individual’s comprehension
– plans link minds via overlaps
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Complex Systems use Hierarchical Modular Designs
Propulsion Systems
Turbine Design
TurbineBlade
Design
Propulsion Control System
TemperatureSensor Design
FADECDesign
ServovalveDesign
Wing Design Cockpit Design
Avionics Systems
Radar Design Heads-UpDisplay Design
Landing Gear Systems
Aircraft Systems
Specification Method(Good Enough)
promises Functionality
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Propulsion Systems
Turbine Design
TurbineBlade
Design
Propulsion Control System
TemperatureSensor Design
FADECDesign
ServovalveDesign
Wing Design Cockpit Design
Avionics Systems
Radar Design Heads-UpDisplay Design
Landing Gear Systems
Aircraft Systems
Coordinated Design — Designing the Best
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Value Gradient for Coordinated Module Design
Engine Inlet
Status Gradient Value
Efficiency 90% 150,000 135,000Weight 700 -130 -91,000
Manufacturing Cost 700 -1 -700
Maintenance Cost 500 -0.5 -250
Reliability 1500 2.3 3,450
Design Value 43,478
Maintainability 7.8 -340 -2,652
Support Equipment 12 -15 -180Radar Cross-Section 0.1 -1200 -120
InfraRed Signature 1.4 -50 -70
Module Design Value is Commensurate
with System Design Value
xx ==
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Comparison to Good Enough Design Methods
• Example of Value Conflicts
• Visualizing Lack of Coordination
• Cumulative Impact of Lack of Coordination
• Formalization
• Symptoms of Problems in the Good Enough Method– Search for Knees in Curves
– Aversity to Technical Risk
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Good Enough Method Fosters Value Conflicts
Brake Material + $11,000 - 90 lbs.Rudder - $10,000 + 190 lbs.
Net Impact + $ 1,000 + 100 lbs.
Differences in perceived value within a design team lead to choices that, taken together, are clearly lose-lose
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Good Enough Method is Uncoordinated
Revealed Preferences
Propulsion Systems
Turbine Design
TurbineBlade
Design
Propulsion Control System
TemperatureSensor Design
FADECDesign
ServovalveDesign
Wing Design Cockpit Design
Avionics Systems
Radar Design Heads-UpDisplay Design
Landing Gear Systems
Aircraft Systems
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Coordinated Values Achieve Design Potential
Design Potential
Designing the Best
Good Enough Method
Val
ue A
Value B
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Formalization of “Better”
Net Value is a potential function in attribute space. Gradients of Value show the direction of improvement
Cost
Per
form
ance Lines of Constant Net Value
Better
Spec Design
Space of Possible Designs
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
The Knee in the Curve: Guessing at Values
Cost
Per
form
ance
Goodness ?
Space of Possible Designs
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Settling for Minimum Risk
Design
Weight
Maintenance Cost
Drag
Radar XC
Reliability
Logistics Footprint
Manufacturing Cost
Design Cost
Maintainability
Strength
Reasonable ExpectationTypical Requirement
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Complex Adaptive Systems
• Definition
– Complex: Many interacting parts, complex interactions
– Adaptive: Patterned by a schema (design) which evolves in response to the environment and the system itself
– Autonomous: Emergent behavior, unplanned and unpredictable (ungovernable)
• Evolution of Engineered Systems
• Managing Autonomous Evolution
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Early System Lifefundamental innovation
Mature Systementrenched design
Value Landscape
Incr
easi
ng V
alue
Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Autonomous Development
Managing Complex System Development is like planting a tree
not like building a house
You may provide resources to encourage fruitful development, and you may prune, or stop the development, but you cannot anticipate or force the exact outcome
DFM
Design For
the Marketplace
DFM Consulting Inc., 2003
Conclusion — Designing the Best
• Know Yourself
– Understand why one design is better than another• Clearly, objectively, consistently, formally
– Requires articulation of values (worthwhile exercise for $1 billion pgm)
– No need to search for “knee in the curve”
• Benefit
– > 50% reduction in cost, or equivalent improvement in performance
– Robustness in the face of technical risk• Reduced development cost and time
• Fully utilize our technical edge
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