Current Warning System Current Warning System of of

India Meteorological DepartmentIndia Meteorological Department

Most of the natural hazards are weather related

WINTER (JAN-FEB)

PRE-MONSOON(MAR-MAY

MONSOON(JUN-SEP)

POST-MONSOON(OCT-DEC)

WESTERN DISTURBANCES COLD WAVE, FOG

CYCLONIC DISTURBANCESHEAT WAVETHUNDER STORMS, SQUALLSHAIL STORMTORNADO

SOUTHWEST MONSOON CIRCULATIONMONSOON DISTURBANCES

NORTHEAST MONSOONCYCLONIC DISTURBANCES

Nodal agencies for monitoring and assessment of natural hazards

India Meteorological Department : Cyclone, Floods, Drought, earthquakes and other meteorological hazards

Central Water Commission : Floods

Geological Survey of India : Landslides

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) : Tsunami

Defence Research and Development Organisation : Snow and Avalanches

MADRAS MSLP 1796-2004

995

1000

1005

1010

1015

1020

1796

1808

1820

1832

1844

1856

1868

1880

1892

1904

1916

1928

1940

1952

1964

1976

1988

2000

YEAR

PR

ES

SU

RE

(h

Pa)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

DecemberIndia has more than 100 sites back to the 19th century)

Source: Rob Allan, UKMO

North Region

Central Region

South Region

West Region

East Region

North East Region

Regional CentresDelhi, Kolkata, Guwahati, Nagpur, Mumbai, Chennai

Pune Centre for Research /Training and surface instrumentation

National Weather Forecasting Centre at New Delhi

Meteorological Centres

1. Srinagar2. Chandigarh3. Shimla4. Dehra Dun5. Lucknow6. Patna7. Itanagar8. Jaipur9. Ranchi10. Agartatala11. Ahmedabad12. Bhopal13. Raipur14. Bhuvaneshwar15. Hyderabad16. Bangalore17. Thiruvananthapura

m18. Panjim19. Gangtok

Nowcasting for next 6-12 hours (Venue/ location specific)

Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division)

Medium Range for next 3-7 days (District)

Extended range for 10-15 days (Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions)

Long range for month/season (Homogeneous regions/country)

Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast

Nowcast, short, medium and extended range Forecast

Public Weather Local Forecast Long Range Forecast Tropical Cyclone Forecast & Warnings Warnings related to all other Disaster Sea State Forecast Coastal Zone Forecasts Forecasts to Aviation Forecasts for Agriculture Customized Forecasts to different Sectors- Power,

Tourism, Defense, Adventure, Road/Railway transports, Public Utility, VIP functions, Strategic operations, Space, event based etc

IMD’s Forecast & Warning

General Weather Forecasting

Three tier forecasting system (National,

Regional and State)

• Issued 4 times to Media (Doordarshan /AIR), NDM

• General weather for 3 days with 4 days outlook

• Rainfall/Snowfall, Temperature (cold/Heat wave,

Thunderstorms, Squall, Hailstorm, Fog/Frost,

Cyclone forecasting

Heavy rainfall/snowfall Thunderstorm/Squall/Hailstorm Heat/Cold Wave Frost Fog Strong winds Storm surge

Warning criterion defined for each parameter SOP in placeLinkages with Media, Disaster authoritiesScheduled time of issue

Warnings Parameters

National Weather Forecasting Centre

National Weather Forecasting Centre

SHORT RANGE FORECAST & WARNINGS

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

13

Heavy Rainfall Warning (15 July 2012)

Heavy rain at one or two places

>6.5 cm or more

Heavy to very heavy at one or two / at a few places

>12.5 cm or more

Heavy to very heavy at a few places or extreme heavy

>12.5 cm or more

No warning Nil

14

Heat wave & Thundersquall warning (25 May, 2012)

Heat wave (5.0 to 6.00C above normal)

Thundersquall at one or two places

>22 kts and above

Severe heat wave ( 7.00 C aboveNormal or station reported 45.00 C or more)

Thundersquall at a few places

>22 kts andabove

Severe heat wave ( 7.00 C aboveNormal or station reported 45.00 C or more) at wide area

Severe Thundersquall at many places

>22 kts and above

No warning No warning Nil

15

Fog/visibility warning (17 January, 2012)

Visibility at one or two places

<500M

Visibility at a few/many places

<200 M

Visibility at most places

<200 M or less than <50 M

No Warning Nil

16

Heavy rain/snow & hail storm warning (16 January, 2012)

Very heavy snow at one or two to many places

>65 cm

Ths + hail+Squall

Heavy snow at a few places

>35 cm

Ths+hail+ squall

Heavy snow at one or two places

>35 cm

Ths+ squall

No warning Nil

17

Cold wave/ visibility & ground frost warning, (11 January, 2012)

Cold wave (5.0 to 6.00C below normal)

Ground frost at one or two places

Visibility at one or two places < 500 M

Severe cold wave ( 70 C below normal)

Ground frost at a few places

Visibility at a few/many places<200 M

Cold day ( day temp. <150C) or severe cold wave

Ground frost at many places

Visibility at most places<50 M

No warning No warning No warning

Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications

Forecast for VVIP Movement•Forecast of Weather like rain, thunderstorm etc•Cloudiness•Max /Min Temp•HumidityDisseminated through Fax and e-mail

Forecast for NavySynoptic ConditionsWindSSTSea conditions

Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications

S. No

Height(AMSL)

Wind DirectionWind Speed ( Km/hour)

Temperature( Deg C )

Weather

1 3.1 km SOUTHWESTERLY10

+14GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY

2 4.5 kmSOUTHWESTERLY 10

+05GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY

3 5.8 km SOUTHWESTERLY 10

-04GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY

4 7.6 kmSOUTHWESTERLY 60

-16GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY

5 9.5 kmWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY

100-28

PARTLY CLOUDY SKY

Forecast for Joint Indo-UK Army mountaineering expedition (MAHADEV) Lat. 30 59 N/ 79.090 EValid for 24 hrs commencing from 1330 hrs IST of /09/2012………….. to 1330 hrs IST of 17 /09/2012………………. WEATHER: GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-60 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KMPHOutlook for subsequent 48 hours IST from 1330 hours IST of -09-2012………… to 1330 hours IST of 18 -09-2012……… GENERALLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW SPELLS OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS, ONE OR TWO MAY BE HEAVY (30-70 MM). SURFACE WIND WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KMPH

Wind and temperature in free air

Weather Forecasting for sectoral applications

City forecastCity forecast • Local forecast for 211 Local forecast for 211 citiescities

• Local forecast is issued 4 Local forecast is issued 4 times a daytimes a day

• Forecasts are available in Forecasts are available in IMD’s web siteIMD’s web site

• Forecasts are provided to Forecasts are provided to All India Radio, Door All India Radio, Door Darshan and local pressDarshan and local press

• Extreme weather and Extreme weather and climatological informations climatological informations for these cities are also for these cities are also available in IMD’s websiteavailable in IMD’s website

• Disseminated to Public, WMO through email, website

City Climatology of extreme eventsCity Climatology of extreme events

Nowcasting ServicesNowcasting Services

Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC)- Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi

Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan)Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan) and Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAOAdvisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAO

Issue of Cyclone BulletinsIssue of Cyclone Bulletins• Bulletin for India coastBulletin for India coast• Tropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observationTropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observation• Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and

1200 UTC observation during depression stage1200 UTC observation during depression stage• Tropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone periodTropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone period• Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO

every six hourly during cyclone periodevery six hourly during cyclone period• Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)

BULLETINS AND WARNINGS

1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic disturbance – potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and the coastal belt likely to be affected.

2. Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs in advance indicating expected adverse weather conditions.

3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and actions suggested.

4. Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12 hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collectors of interior districts besides the coastal areas are also informed.

5. Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issued

when the Tropical Cyclone weakens.

BULLETINS AND

WARNINGS

Sea area bulletinSea area bulletin

Coastal weather bulletinCoastal weather bulletin

Bulletins for Indian navyBulletins for Indian navy

Fisheries warningsFisheries warnings

Port warningsPort warnings

Aviation warningAviation warning

Bulletins for departmental exchangesBulletins for departmental exchanges

Bulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ pressBulletins for AIR/ Doordarshan/ press

CWDS bulletinsCWDS bulletins

Warnings for registered/ designated Warnings for registered/ designated

users.users.

Telephone, Tele-faxTelephone, Tele-fax VHF/HFRTVHF/HFRT CWDSCWDS Police Wireless, Police Wireless, AFTNAFTN Internet (e-mail), Internet (e-mail), WebsitesWebsites Radio/TV networkRadio/TV network Mobile PhonesMobile Phones SMSSMS

PWS-Cyclone Improvement in lead period of

forecast and warning The cyclone track, landfall,

intensity and wind forecasts are now issued upto 72 hrs which was earlier issued for 24 hrs only.

Value added services The cone of uncertainty in

cyclone track forecast Cyclone wind forecast in different

quadrant, Forecast map, Multi-hazard

warning map of India

• Flood Prone areas in India~ 40 million Ha

• Coordination through 10 Flood

Meteorological Offices of IMD

• 166 Flood Forecasting Centres of Central

Water Commission --- { 134 level forecasting

& 32 inflow forecasting }

Flood

• Hydrometeorological services through• Real time rainfall monitoring, • quantitative precipitation forecast (flood

forecasting) • Dissemination to State Govt and CWC• Mode of communication:

• Telefax• E-mail• Website

• Monitoring Meteorological drought.• Preparation of Drought Climatology• Delineation and identification of Drought Prone areas • Monitoring Agricultural drought conditions during SW and NE monsoon

seasons by preparing aridity anomaly maps.

Drought Monitoring

District Level Agromet Advisoy Service

Milestones 1932, 1945, 1976

23 State Agromet Service Centre in

collaboration with SDA

Agro-advisory preparation - Monday &

Thursday

Composite Agro-advisory preparation-

Tuesday & Friday

Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print

media, Website

Farmers Weather Bulletin :

Issued daily once/twice by MCs and RMCs

and disseminated to public through AIR and

to district collectors through fax/email

Weather Forecasting Web Page

Weather Forecasting Web Page

Weather Forecasting Web Page

Cyclone Web Page of IMD

Monsoon Web Page of IMD

LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES

NATIONAL LEVEL :

1. CONCERNED MINISTRY

2. NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

3. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT

INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, TELECOM

AUTHORITIES

4. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA

STATE LEVEL :

1. CHIEF SECRETARY

2. SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER

3. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

4. REGISTERED WARNEES

5. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS

6. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA

User Workshops

Print and Electronic Media briefing

Media workshop

FAQ and Terminology

Publication of leaflets

Public Education and Reaching out

Thrust areas The thrust areas of IMD include :

Improvement in scientific understanding, Improvement in monitoring and prediction of disastrous

weather like heavy rain/snowfall over data sparse Himalayan region and adjoining plains and cyclonic disturbances over north Indian Ocean using land/Ocean and space based tools

Improvement in nowcast of meso-scale disastrous events like thunderstorm, hailstorm and tornado,

Improvement in space based telecommunication measures and Forecast Demonstration Projects on

• Cyclone • Thunderdstorm • Fog• heavy rain during monsoon due to Continental Tropical

Convergence Zone (CTCZ)

Thank youThank you