The Entrepreneurial

City 2050

The Connected City 2050

The Liveable

City

2050

The Pioneer

City 2050

knowledge

innovation

technology

social diversity

cultural heritage

creativity

learning

17

SPACE IN TRANSITION • Peter Gould (1963):

- Man against Nature

- Locational patterns

• Lucassen and Willems (2011):

- Challenge and Response

- Adaptation and rising urbanisation

• Kourtit and Nijkamp (2012):

- Globalisation and migration

- Agglomeration advantages and creative cities

THE NEW URBAN WORLD

URBANISATION: A GLOBAL DESTINY • Megatrends:

- Exponential growth world population

- Rural-urban

- Spiky spatial dynamics

- New geographical heartlands

- Every week a city the size of Amsterdam is emerging

• 3 Revolutions:

- Rural to urban shift (Tellier 2009)

- Industrial Revolution based on increasing returns

- Urban networks (ICT) and mega-cities

URBANITY AND RURALITY ARE FUZZY CONCEPTS

Megatrends – The New Urban World • Rising urbanization everywhere (not every city)

• Cities as ‘the home of man’

• Urban areas as centres of development and of concerns

• Pluriformity in urban appearance and socio-economic development

• Dominance of sustainability conditions (XXQ, Nijkamp, 2010)

• No natural or economic limit to city size

• The law of Van Loon (1932)

• Smart specialisation

• Need for effective long-range policy responses

• Challenges for Regional Science

THE LAW OF VAN LOON (1932)

"If everybody in this world of ours were six feet tall and a foot and a half wide and a foot thick, then the whole of the human race …………….could be packed into a box measuring half a mile in each direction“.

H.W. van Loon, Van Loon’s Geography, The Story of the World We Live in, Simon & Schuster,

New York (1932), p.3

Density

+

Proximity

Efficiency +

Productivity

Growth +

New Cities

Population +

Migration

Investment +

Jobs

A CIRCULAR CAUSALITY MODEL OF PERSISTENT URBAN GROWTH

DYNAMICS IN URBAN SYSTEMS

• Regularity in chaos, (e.g. Zipf): - Hierarchy and rank-size (Reggiani and Nijkamp) - Entropic conditions (Wilson)

• Complexity (Bertuglia and Vaio): - Agent-based modelling - Social cognitive analysis - Urban way of life as new societal paradigm - Self-regulation vs planning • Self-organisation on the basis of economic principles - Macro - Micro

3 FOCAL POINTS OF CITY GROWTH • Migration

• Ageing

• Knowledge (OECD 2009) - Progress for All - OECD Long Boom - Uneven Progress - Globalization Falters - Decoupled Destinies

MEGACITIES: ‘BLESSING IN DISGUISE’

CITIES AS MAGNETS FOR XXQ ADVANTAGES OF DENSITY AND PROXIMITY • AGGLOMERATION BENEFITS (ISARD, HOOVER)

- SCALE

- LOCALISATION (THISSE) - URBANISATION • KNOWLEDGE BASE AND SPILLOVERS (CAPELLO, STOUGH) - R&D - ENTREPRENEURSHIP • CREATIVENESS (FLORIDA, SCOTT) - INNOVATION - NEW LIFE STYLE - COMMUNICATION RESOURCE BASE • PHYSICAL (ADAM SMITH) • HUMAN RESOURCES (SASSEN) LEARNING • INTERACTION • EVOLUTION (BOSCHMA) • COMPLEXITY (NIJKAMP & REGGIANI) • IMAGINEERING (RATCLIFFE)

STRIKING FACTS ON URBAN WORLD • ‘The new urban century’: a structural phenomenon

• Double urbanization: big cities grow into mega-cities (including political power) and medium-sized cities grow even faster into big cities

• Urbanisation continues despite shrinking cities

• Emergence of Megacities: competitive advantages (opportunities for various stakeholders)

• Polynuclear morphological structures all over (Fractal Maps)

• Santa Fe hypothesis (Geoffrey West) (‘15% rule’) Urban scaling: efficiency and performance rise with city size (15 percent efficiency rise for doubling of cities)

China’s Pearl River Delta (largest mega-city in the world with more than 80 million people)

The European Blue Banana