CSLI Service Learning – Final Meeting, Fall

2011Review the processReview the findings

Analyze - Hypotheses

Evaluate the CSLI process◦ Review – what exactly did CSLI do?

Generated questionnaire Oriented students in intro meeting

Reviewed questionnaire with students Reviewed nature of surveys/sampling

Trained students in telephone/marking instructions Conducted telephone interviews

Target at least 400 completions Accomplished – 487 completions

Issue and post on Web site – press release forthcoming Expect coverage in major media –Capital

Review the process – 1

Questionnaire issues – initial contact ◦ Was the opening statement OK?◦ Hello, I’m a student calling from Anne Arundel Community College whose

Center for the Study of Local Issues is conducting a survey on issues affecting Anne Arundel County Residents. Would you please take a few minutes to complete this survey

◦ Suggestions?

Review the process -2

Questionnaire issues - questions- Did any specific questions give you more problems than

others? Clarity Public constantly asked for restatement Vagueness of what is being asked

◦ Did the respondents seem to think that the questions were generally interesting?

◦ Did the respondents think that the survey was too long or short?

◦ Other suggestions?

Review the process - 3

Public receptivity Were you surprised by how easy/hard it was to obtain a

completion? Problems with phone numbers? Idle chatter from respondents? Bias among interviewers? Partial completions? Other suggestions

Review the process - 4

Positives edging lower in fall 20111

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

Fa '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

25

3431

2429 27 26

29 27

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

32

20 19 1720

1519

1418

13 1512

19 18 16 18 20 2116 17 17

2521 20

23 22 22

5754

5855

6266

60 61 62

51

58 5853

57 5551 52 51 50 52

4752 52

49 50 47

Wrong Unsure Right

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘11

Most Important Problem Fall 2006 to Fall 2011

'06 '07 '07 '08 ‘08 '09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

712

8

23

38

48

3336 36 35

48

9

1517 16

1210

12 1113

119

21

16 16

129

5 5 52

4 4

16

12 12 1210

8 7 8 9 10

5

12 11 12

7 64 5 6 6

35

119 10

64

68

6 6 687

96

97 8

10 108

12

8

17 1619

15 1411

21

17

2119

13

Economy High taxes Growth EducationTransportation Crime Unsure/NA Other

Economy shows sharp rise as problem in Oct. 2011

County – Economic Conditions vs. State and USA

Federal State County-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

5

27

46

11

30

48

11

31

44

11

32

45

11

35

49

9

33

48

S '09 S '09

S '09

S '10

S '10

S '10

S '11

S '02

F '02

S '03

F '03

S '04

F '04

S '05

F '05

S '06

F '06

S '07

F '07

S '08

F '08

S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

F '11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

343431 28

3842

3227

17

5 5 10 11 11 13 9

74 76

56 5662

7474 71 74 71 71 69

5549 46 48

444549 48

9

“Thinking about our county's economy, how would you rate economic conditions in Anne Arundel County today -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?” (Total percentage saying excellent and good)

Gallup - USA

CSLI - AA County

General economic conditions – % saying ‘applies’

Facing

the p

ossibi

lity of

unem

ploym

ent

Signifi

cant lo

sses in

your

stock

or ret

iremen

t acco

unts

Facing

the p

ossibi

lity of

house

forec

losure

or lo

ss

Delay i

n maki

ng a m

ajor p

urcha

se suc

h as a

home o

r car

Health

care

insura

nce is

unav

ailabl

e, too

expen

sive o

r inad

equate

01020304050607080

116

35

15

71

4

3024

75

6

51

2924

70

8

46

33

19

56

7

47

32

21

60

7

4434

20

52

9

47

35

21

60

8

51

32

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11

Economic costs, inflation: % saying ‘applies’

Unable

to fin

d afford

able

housin

g

Wages o

r sala

ries a

re not

rising

as fa

st as th

e cost

of liv

ing

Hard to

afford

the c

ost of

transp

ortati

on

Hard to

afford

the c

ost of

utilit

ies su

ch as

electr

icity o

r gas

Taxes

are to

o high

in rel

ation

to go

vernm

ent se

rvices

provi

ded0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

5058

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

14

63

4146

63

11

59

3039

58

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11

% saying ‘applies’ sorted by Std. Deviation

Condition 

Spring ‘08

 Fall ‘08

Spring ‘09

 Fall‘09

Spring ‘10

 Fall‘10

Spring

‘ 11

Fall ‘11

 

Spring ’11- Fall ’10

 

Std. Dev.

Hard to afford cost of transportation 40 32 21 17 21 24 41 30 -11 8.42Significant losses in your stock or retirement accounts n.a. 71 75 70 56 60 52 60 8 7.96Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas 61 50 53 42 44 43 46 39 -7 6.67Facing the possibility of unemployment 11 15 24 24 19 21 20 21 1 4.15Unable to find affordable housing 21 11 12 13 15 10 14 11 -3 3.28Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 56 59 55 55 56 56 63 59 -4 2.6Delay in making a major purchase such as a home or car n.a. n.a. 51 46 47 44 47 51 4 2.56Hard to afford cost of taxes* 47 58 59 59 63 60 63 58 -5 2Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 35 30 29 33 32 34 35 32 -3 1.96Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or loss 6 4 6 8 7 7 9 8 -1 1.45

Economic conditions: Found job, got income increase

County residents vs. AACC students

05

1015202530

14

2618

27

County Students

Consumer confidence: County vs. students

Econo

mic grow

th

Unemplo

ymen

t

Inflati

on

Your

perso

nal fi

nanci

al situ

ation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25 25

11

2020 20

5

33

4237

30

54

44

36

27

44

2834

54

22

29

36

50

13

Better County Better Students Same County Same Students Worse County Worse Students

Better

Same

WorseBet-ter Better

Same

Same

Same

Worse Worse WorseBetter

Inflation forecast =>

Better Same Worse

Those saying worse regarding…

Economic growth 12 16 40

Unemployment 15 21 47

Your personal financial situation 2 14 32

Inflation as key indicator of overall pessimism…

Perceptions of MD and AAC dealing with economic downturn: County vs. students

State of Maryland Anne Arundel County0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3236

2529

46 46

5753

1410

72

7 711

16

Better County Better Students Same County Same StudentsWorse County Worse Students Unsure County Unsure Students

BetterBet-ter

Same Same

Worse Wors

eUnsureUnsure

Earthquake: Where were you and was there a plan?

% at this location Plan No Plan Plan Unclear Unsure/NA0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

38

18

79

2 1

34 34

61

513

31

46

158

25

12

69

5

14

HomeWorkSchoolSomewhere else

Students: 29% home;18% work; 22% school; 29% somewhere else

Students at school: 33% Plan; 44% No plan; 22% Plan unclear

Method % Saying used

Successful

Not successf

ul

Other/No answer

County Students

Mobile phone 66 71 40 55 5Text message 42 78 57 30 14Land line telephone 40 17 45 37 18Email 25 9 27 41 32Social media 19 49 25 40 35

Earthquake - communication: Method, Success

Earthquake: Follow-up method

TV Internet Radio “News” Mobile phone Text messages

Social media Word of mouth

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

45

25

13

8

3 2 2 1

EQ: Follow-up method by location

Overall Home Work School Somewhere else0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25

14

42

29

14

45

57

28

14

42

13

6

15 14

26

3 46

14

58

12

4

14

42 1 2

03

14

1

14

42 2 1 0

3

InternetTVRadioMobile phone“News”Text messagesWord of mouthSocial media

  Yes No No answer TotalDamage from storms 24 75 -- 99Satisfaction with insurer (N=114)

33 30 38 101

Storms: Damage? Sat. w/ Insur.

Length of outage PercentageUnder 24 hours 241 to 2 days 203 to 4 days 315 to 6 days 19More than 6 days 6Total 100

Power outage: Duration for 66% who experienced an outage

    Percentages saying “Yes”Overall No outage Under

24 hours

1 to 2

days

3 to 4

days

5 to 6 days

More than

6 days

Was BGE effective after hurricanes hit the area P<.01

67 63 89 71 68 53 53

Did BGE do all it could to lower the impact before hurricanes hit P<.03

52 53 64 50 50 39 50

BGE Effectiveness

Proposal Support

Oppose

Unsure/NA

Increase the toll on the Bay Bridge from $2.50 to $4.00

33 64 4

Create a new tax on ownership of vehicles

10 86 4

Increase the state’s property tax, adding $63 million to the fund

11 86 3

Increase the corporate income tax rate by one percent, adding $100 million to the fund

57 39 4

Support for Proposals meant to Replenish Maryland’s Transportation Trust Fund

Presidential job approval

Fall '06 Spring '07

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Spring '11

Fall '110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3934 35

2824

5347 47

4247

373733 32 30

25

61

54

4743

47

40

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration

F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

47 4742

47

37

72 70

61

7067

17

24 2418

7

54 53

33

57

47OverallDemocratsRepublicansUnaffiliated

Trust in Political Parties – Spring 2009 to Fall 2011

Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall2009 2010 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4542

3733 34 34

313028

31

37

3230

20

27

31

21

2932

86 6

8

47

Democrats Republicans Neither No opinion

Exercise: Develop Hypotheses1. Identify a dependent variable – attitude, preference

2. Identify an independent variable – a social/demographic characteristic

3. Specify a likely relationship between the two based on a “theory” or hunch

you have about people and attitudes

Test Hypotheses using SPSS1. Login2. Go to CSLI Web site: http://www2.aacc.edu/csli3. Double click on CSLI_Fall_2011_Data.sav4. Weight the dataset /data/weight cases/weight cases by Weight5. Cross-tabs - /Analyze/Descriptive Statistics/Crosstabs6. Find Income75– click once on it to select it then use arrow to place in

columns box7. Find ‘v4.2’ or ‘v4.3’ – click once to select it then use arrow to place in rows box 8. Click on “cells” and then click on Percentages “columns” then OK9. Click on “statistics” and then click on Nominal “Phi and Cramer’s V” OK10.Click on OK in main crosstabs dialog box11.Check results: Did a higher percentage of under $75k agree with “unemployment”

than those over $75k?” Were the results statistically significant – were the Phi and Cramer’s V values under the column “Approx. Sig” under .05?

12.If the answer is yes to both these questions, then it is possible that your hypothesis is correct – you have disproved the ‘null hypothesis” 13. Try it again with the “significant losses in stocks and retirement accounts” variable (v4.3)14. Continue with other hypotheses15. In the last 10 minutes, we will go around the room asking you to tell us your most interesting finding