CRUDE-BY-RAIL IN NORTH AMERICA

Lorne Stockman – Research Director

www.priceofoil.org

WWW.PRICEOFOIL.ORG/RAIL

US CRUDE-BY-RAIL AND BAKKEN GO HAND IN HAND

Dec. 2009. EOG loads 1st Unit Train in Stanley, ND.

HOW MANY TRAINS?

• Currently: one million bpd = ~135 crude oil trains of 100 cars = ~9 million barrels of oil moving thru N. America at any given time

• If all capacity was used: 5 million BPD = ~675 trains with 100 cars each = ~45 million barrels of oil

TERMINAL CAPEX IS LOW TO REALLY LOW

SHIPPER COSTS Pipeline Costs Stages Rail Costs Stages Gathering to mainline Gathering to terminal Line Fill Loading

Main Tariff Rail Freight Tank Car Lease

Local Distribution Unloading Committed/Uncommitted Unit/Manifest

$6-18/bbl $8-30bbl

ALL ABOUT THAT SPREAD

CANADIAN CRUDE-BY-RAIL GROWING BUT…

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

CANADIAN TAR SANDS LOADING TERMINALS STILL DEVELOPING

CANADIAN CAPACITY UTILIZATION IS VERY LOW

PIPES MATTER

WWW.PRICEOFOIL.ORG/RAIL