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Crop Tour ResultsImpact on Market Outlook
Chip FloryEditorial Director, Pro Farmer
Host, Market Rally radio
Email: [email protected]: @ChipFlory
Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Highlights
23 years of Tour data and experiences7 states in 4 daysCumulative 25,000-plus miles traveled~1,400 corn and 1,400 soybean samples
Ohio corn
Calculated Tour yield of 148.4 bu. per acre. Down 18.5% from last year
• Crop was uneven and yellow due to excessive moisture earlier in the growing season. Ear counts were solid, but grain length was lacking
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 2.8 bu. per acre too low
Pro Farmer estimated the Ohio corn yield at 151 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 168 bu. per acre
Indiana corn
Calculated Tour yield of 142.9 bu. per acre Down 22.7% from last year.
• Major unevenness and nitrogen deficiency across Indiana• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 1.7 bu. per acre too low
Pro Farmer estimated the Indiana corn yield at 145 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 158 bu. per acre
Illinois corn
Calculated Tour yield of 171.6 bu. per acre Down 12.9% from last year
• Easily the best state in the eastern Corn Belt, but still major issues in some areas. Crop was better in the western half of the state.
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 1.8 bu. per acre too high
Pro Farmer estimated the Illinois corn yield at 169 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 172 bu. per acre
Iowa corn
Calculated Tour yield of 180.25 bu. per acre Up 0.8% from last year
• Yield calculations in crop districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 all came in above year-ago. Crop districts 6, 7, 8 and 9 came in under year-ago.
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 3.9 bu. per acre too low
Pro Farmer estimated the Iowa corn yield at 181 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 183 bu. per acre
Minnesota Corn
Calculated Tour yield of 190.9 bu. per acre Up 11.8% from last year
• Southern Minnesota has a great crop, just not as attention-grabbing as we anticipated.
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 11.9 bu. per acre too high
Pro Farmer estimated the Minnesota corn yield at 178 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 184 bu. per acre
Nebraska corn
Calculated Tour yield of 165.2 bu. per acre Up 0.8% from last year
• Dryland corn was better than normal, but irrigated yields weren’t as strong as some years
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 14.9 bu. per acre too low
Pro Farmer estimated the Nebraska corn yield at 178 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 187 bu. per acre
South Dakota Corn
Calculated Tour yield of 165.9 bu. per acre. Up 8.7% from last year
• Record yield potential in the state. Crop was even and free of disease/insect pressure.
• Avg. Tour “miss” since 2001 – 4.9 bu. per acre too high
Pro Farmer estimated the South Dakota corn yield at 160 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 160 bu. per acre
Pro Farmer corn estimate
Pro Farmer pegs the national average corn yield at 164.3 bu. per acre and the crop at 13.323 billion bushels. +/- 1% range:
• 13.190 billion bu.; 162.7 bu. per acre yield• 13.456 billion bu.; 165.9 bu. per acre yield
Corn Supply/Demand
2013-14 2014-15 2014-15 2015-16 Pro Farmer 2015-16 projections
USDA USDA Pro Farmer USDA -1% Current +1%
Planted (mil.acres) 95.4 90.6 90.6 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9
Harvested (mil.acres) 87.5 83.1 83.1 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1
158.1 171.0 171.0 168.8 162.7 164.3 165.9
Beginning stocks 821 1232 1232 1772 1759 1759 1759
Production 13829 14216 14216 13686 13190 13323 13456
Imports 36 30 27 30 25 25 25
Total supply 14686 15477 15474 15488 14974 15107 15240
Feed and Residual 5030 5300 5310 5300 5300 5300 5325
Food, Seed, Industrial 6503 6555 6550 6625 6600 6610 6625
Ethanol for fuel 5134 5200 5200 5250 5240 5235 5250
Total Domestic use 11534 11855 11860 11925 11900 11910 11950
Exports 1920 1850 1855 1850 1825 1870 1915
Total use 13454 13705 13715 13775 13725 13780 13865
Carryover 1232 1772 1759 1713 1249 1327 1375
Carryover, days' supply 33.4 47.2 46.8 45.4 33.2 35.2 36.2
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9.2% 12.9% 12.8% 12.4% 9.1% 9.6% 9.9%
Projected av. price/bu. $4.46 $3.65-$3.75 $3.75 $3.35-$3.95 $4.15 $4.00 $3.85
Ohio soybeans
1,125 pods in a 3’X3’ square Down 16.2% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Ohio soybean yield at 46.4 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 48 bu. per acre
Indiana soybeans
1,093 pods in a 3’X3’ square Down 10.4% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Indiana soybean yield at 47.6 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 49 bu. per acre
Illinois soybeans
1,190 pods in a 3’X3’ square Down 8.4% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Illinois soybean yield at 50.5 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 53 bu. per acre
Iowa soybeans
1,219 pods in a 3’X3’ square Up 3.9% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Iowa soybean yield at 54 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 52 bu. per acre
Minnesota soybeans
1,119 pods in a 3’x3’ square Up 8.5% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Minnesota soybean yield at 46 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 48 bu. per acre
Nebraska soybeans
1,220 pods in a 3’X3’ square Up 10.6% from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the Nebraska soybean yield at 55.5 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 56 bu. per acre
South Dakota soybeans
1,055 pods in a 3’X3’ square Virtually unchanged from last year
Pro Farmer estimated the South Dakota soybean yield at 47 bu. per acre USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate was 45 bu. per acre
Pro Farmer soybean estimate
Pro Farmer pegs the national average soybean yield at 46.5 bu. per acre and the crop at 3.887 billion bushels +/- 2% range:
• 3.809 billion bu.; 45.6 bu. per acre yield• 3.965 billion bu.; 47.4 bu. per acre yield
Soybean Supply/Demand
2013-14 2014-15 2014-15 2015-16 Pro Farmer 2015-16 projections
USDA USDA Pro Farmer USDA -2% Current +2%
Planted (mil.acres) 76.8 83.7 83.7 84.3 84.3 84.3 84.3
Harvested (mil.acres) 76.3 83.1 83.1 83.5 83.5 83.5 83.5
Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.8 47.8 46.9 45.6 46.5 47.4
Beginning stocks 141 92 92 240 225 225 225
Production 3358 3969 3969 3916 3809 3887 3965
Imports 72 30 30 30 25 30 25
Total supply 3570 4091 4091 4186 4059 4142 4215
Crush 1734 1845 1850 1860 1850 1860 1875
Exports 1638 1825 1835 1725 1725 1735 1775
Seed 97 98 99 92 93 92 91
Residual 9 83 82 40 40 40 40
Total use 3478 3851 3866 3717 3708 3727 3781
Carryover 92 240 225 470 351 415 434
Carryover, days' supply 9.7 22.8 21.3 46.1 34.6 40.7 41.9
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 2.6% 6.2% 5.8% 12.6% 9.5% 11.1% 11.5%
Projected av. price/bu. $13.00 $10.05 $10.15 $8.40-$9.90 $9.70 $9.25 $8.40
Crop Estimate Risks
Both corn and soybean crop estimates use USDA’s harvested acres estimates. Corn harvested acres should be lowered slightly. Soybean harvested acres could be lowered as
much as 750,000 to 1 million.
Weather Will corn crop finish “too early?” Wet fall?
• Weather will only take away from Pro Farmer yield estimates – won’t likely add to crop size.
Questions?
Chip FloryEditorial Director, Pro Farmer
Host, Market Rally radioEmail: [email protected]
Twitter: @ChipFlory
