Creating a nutritious home for all. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Western Cape Department of Agriculture (Prepared by: Dirk Troskie, Specialist Agricultural Economist)

Creating a nutritious home for allCreating a nutritious home for all

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTSTRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

Western Cape Department of AgricultureWestern Cape Department of Agriculture

(Prepared by: Dirk Troskie, Specialist Agricultural Economist)(Prepared by: Dirk Troskie, Specialist Agricultural Economist)


1.1. National EnvironmentNational Environment

2.2. Provincial Agricultural SectorProvincial Agricultural Sector

3.3. National StrategiesNational Strategies

4.4. Provincial StrategiesProvincial Strategies



SA: FOOD PRODUCTION & POPULATION GROWTHSA: FOOD PRODUCTION & POPULATION GROWTH

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Ind

ex

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns

)

Index of food production (Volume) Total population

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoSource: Abstract (2008)

SA: AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS & EXPORTSSA: AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS & EXPORTS(Nominal values)(Nominal values)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

(R B

illio

n)

Imports Exports Exports-Imports

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoSource: Abstract (2008)

SA: EXPORTS OF WINESA: EXPORTS OF WINE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Vo

lum

e (m

il l

itre

s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

%

Export volume Export as % of harvest

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoSource: SAWIS (2008)

FAPRI % BFAP BASELINE PRICES:FAPRI % BFAP BASELINE PRICES:Wheat & BarleyWheat & Barley

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

Cereal Prices

50

80

110

140

170

200

230U

S $

/to

n

Yellow maize, US No.2, fob, GulfWheat US No2 HRW fob (ord) Gulf Sorghum, US No.2, fob, Gulf

Source: BFAP (2007)

BIOFUELS IN THE USBIOFUELS IN THE US

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoSource: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007)

WORLD CLOSING STOCKSWORLD CLOSING STOCKS

85

90

95

100

105

2001 -2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

(R

ice

)

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

(W

he

at)

Rice Wheat


PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEATPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEAT

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

27.5

28

2001 -2005

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NO

N-O

EC

D (

kg

/ca

pit

a)

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

OE

CD

(k

g/c

ap

ita

)

Non-OECD OECD


POPULATION ON CONTINENTSPOPULATION ON CONTINENTS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(M

illio

ns

)

Africa Asia Europe


WORLD POPULATIONWORLD POPULATION

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illio

ns

)

World


ANIMAL PRODUCTSANIMAL PRODUCTSIndex of nominal pricesIndex of nominal prices


IMPACT ON THE MOST VULNERABLE: LSM1IMPACT ON THE MOST VULNERABLE: LSM1(Inflation = 6%; Food Inflation = 12%)(Inflation = 6%; Food Inflation = 12%)

-55

-5

45

95

145

195

245

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ind

ex

Income Food expenditure Balance

Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoSource: Own Calculations based on LSM Data (2007)




WESTERN CAPE EXPORTSWESTERN CAPE EXPORTS2001 - 20032001 - 2003


PRODUCTPRODUCT VALUE % of TOTAL

CUMUL-ATIVE

%

% CHANGE

Fruit R5,186 19,4% 19,4% 75%

Wine, beer & spirits R3,333 12,5% 31,9% 58%

Fish R2,311 8,7% 40,6% 28,5%

Processed food R1,684 6,3% 46,9% -2,4%

Wood & products R0,429 1,6% 48,5% 75%

Hides, skins, leather R0,371 1,4% 49,9% -15,7

Meat R0,227 0,9% 50,8% -12,5%

R13,541 50,8%

Source: Quantec (2008)

PROVINCIAL AGRICULTUREPROVINCIAL AGRICULTURE


21.4%

14.5%13.2% 13.1%

10.9%

8.7% 8.2%

5.0% 4.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

% of National Ag

COMPOSITION OF WESTERN CAPE COMPOSITION OF WESTERN CAPE AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE


Horticulture, 54%

Field Crops, 12%

Animal, 30%

Other, 5%

HORTICULTURE IN THE WESTERN CAPEHORTICULTURE IN THE WESTERN CAPE


Table grapes17%

Viticulture27%

Fynbos7%

Citrus6%

Deciduous fruit29%

Vegetables14%

CROP PRODUCTION: WESTERN CAPECROP PRODUCTION: WESTERN CAPE


Winter85%

Legumes1%

Oilseeds3%Summer

4%

Other1%

Fodder6%

ANIMAL PRODUCTION: WESTERN CAPEANIMAL PRODUCTION: WESTERN CAPE


Broilers12%

Livestock sales23%

Other Animal10%

Eggs9%

Animal Fibre4%

Ostriches16%

Dairy26%





Core StrategiesCore StrategiesEquitable access & privitisationEquitable access & privitisation

Global competitiveness & profitabilityGlobal competitiveness & profitability

Sustainable resource managementSustainable resource management

Complementary strategiesComplementary strategiesGood governanceGood governance

Integrated & sustainable rural developmentIntegrated & sustainable rural development

Knowledge & innovationKnowledge & innovation

International cooperationInternational cooperation

Safety & SecuritySafety & Security

STRATEGIC PLAN FOR SA STRATEGIC PLAN FOR SA AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE


Gazetted 20 March 2008Gazetted 20 March 2008ObjectivesObjectives

Promote Economic Transformation / deracialisePromote Economic Transformation / deracialiseInvestment programmesInvestment programmesCommunity empowermentCommunity empowerment

ScorecardScorecardOwnershipOwnershipManagement ControlManagement ControlEmployment equityEmployment equitySkills developmentSkills developmentPreferential procurementPreferential procurementEnterprise developmentEnterprise developmentRural developmentRural development

Agri QSE (Qualifying Small Enterprises)Agri QSE (Qualifying Small Enterprises)R5 to 35 million turnoverR5 to 35 million turnover5 of the seven elements5 of the seven elementsEach 20%Each 20%

Agri EME (Exempted Micro Enterprises)Agri EME (Exempted Micro Enterprises)Less than R5 million turnoverLess than R5 million turnoverDeemed level 4 AgriBEEDeemed level 4 AgriBEECan use 2 of 7 elements (excluding employment equity)Can use 2 of 7 elements (excluding employment equity)Each 50%Each 50%

AGRIBEEAGRIBEE


RedistributionRedistribution5 million ha, 5 million ha, 10 000 new producers, 10 000 new producers, 5 Provinces, 5 Provinces, 2 years2 years

Increase black entrepreneurs by 10%Increase black entrepreneurs by 10%Universal access to agric. Support servicesUniversal access to agric. Support services

New Primary producersNew Primary producersFarm dwellersFarm dwellers

Increase agricultural production by 10-15%Increase agricultural production by 10-15%New Primary producersNew Primary producersFarm dwellersFarm dwellers

Increase agricultural trade by 10-15%Increase agricultural trade by 10-15%New Primary producersNew Primary producersFarm dwellersFarm dwellers

Note: 2014 target is 30% of white owned landNote: 2014 target is 30% of white owned land

LARPLARP


New Primary ProducersNew Primary Producers

Communal FarmersCommunal FarmersOther uses Other uses (food gardens, lifestyle)

Farm Dwellers Farm Dwellers (>50% of income)

Commercial farmersCommercial farmers

CitizensCitizens

TARGET GROUPS: WESTERN CAPETARGET GROUPS: WESTERN CAPE


5 6605 660

??????

280 717280 717

5 7785 778

4,5 m4,5 m

NEW PRIMARY & COMMERCIALNEW PRIMARY & COMMERCIAL


FARM DWELLERS FARM DWELLERS (>50% of HH income from farming)(>50% of HH income from farming)


Whites African Colourd Asian Total

Cape Metropole 0 22 009 3 355 0 25 364

West Coast 2 891 3 312 30 268 578 37 049

Cape Winelands 9 082 18 255 98 540 0 125 877

Overberg 5 627 9 200 31 054 0 45 880

Eden 937 3 877 33 162 0 37 977

Central Karoo 537 160 7 873 0 8 570

Total 19 073 56 814 204 252 578 280, 717

COMMERCIAL FARMERSCOMMERCIAL FARMERS


Male Female Total

Cape Metropole 146 41 186

West Coast 1 510 190 1 700

Cape Winelands 1 214 217 1 431

Overberg 763 107 870

Eden 1 074 132 1 206

Central Karoo 342 42 384

Total 5 050 728 5 778

THE COST OF PRODUCTIONTHE COST OF PRODUCTION(R/ha - Apples)(R/ha - Apples)

-300-200-100

0100200300400500600700800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

R (

Th

ou

san

ds)

Gross Margin Net Farm Income

Cum Gross Margin Cum Net Farm Income


ANNUALIZED VALUEANNUALIZED VALUE(R/ha – Apples over 20 years)(R/ha – Apples over 20 years)


5 056

ANNUALIZED VALUEANNUALIZED VALUE(R/ha – Apples over 20 years)(R/ha – Apples over 20 years)


YIELD

-20% -10% Base 10% 20%

20% 785 13 600 26 415 39 230 52 046

10% -7 759 3 988 15 736 27 483 39 230

PRICE Base -16 303 -5 623 5 056 15 736 26 415

-10% -24 846 -15 235 -5 623 3 988 13 600

-20% -33 390 -24 846 -16 303 -7 759 785





4.4. Provincial StrategiesProvincial Strategies

VisionVisionA home for allA home for all

GoalsGoalsGrow and share the economyGrow and share the economyMore equal & caring society and eradicate More equal & caring society and eradicate povertypovertyPromote ecologically sustainable Promote ecologically sustainable developmentdevelopmentFoster greater spatial integrationFoster greater spatial integrationEffective governance & institutional Effective governance & institutional strengtheningstrengthening

IKAPA ELIHLUMAYOIKAPA ELIHLUMAYO


Path breakingPath breakingIntegrated transportIntegrated transportIntegrated human settlementsIntegrated human settlementsSkills developmentSkills development

Path shapingPath shapingWorld Cup 2010World Cup 2010Climate ChangeClimate ChangeSocial Transformation (i.e. 21 areas)Social Transformation (i.e. 21 areas)

Path ConsolidatingPath ConsolidatingProperty developmentProperty developmentEPWPEPWPGovernanceGovernancePoverty reduction & second economyPoverty reduction & second economySectoral DevelopmentSectoral Development

BPOBPOTourismTourismOil & gasOil & gasAgricultureAgriculture

Path supportersPath supportersManagement & reviewManagement & review

IKAPA ELIHLUMAYO:IKAPA ELIHLUMAYO:InterventionsInterventions


PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK (PSDF)FRAMEWORK (PSDF)


SETTLEMENT INVESTMENT PRIORITIESSETTLEMENT INVESTMENT PRIORITIES


Town Investment: Town Investment: High Dev Potential / High Dev Potential / Low NeedLow Need

Social Investment: Social Investment: Low Need / High Low Need / High Dev PotentialDev Potential

Social & Town Social & Town Investment: High Investment: High Dev Potential / High Dev Potential / High NeedNeed

Leader Leader Towns: Towns: Highest Highest Growth Growth PotentialPotential

Minimal Minimal Investment: Low Investment: Low Dev Potential / Dev Potential / Low NeedLow Need

Betty’s Bay

Bredasdorp

Brenton-on-Sea

Caledon

Franskraal

Groot Brakrivier

Hawston

Herold’s Bay

Jacobsbaai

Jamestown

Keurboomsrivier

Kylemore

Langebaan

Malmesburg

Moorreesburg

BitterfonteinBitterfontein

BotrivierBotrivier

CalitzdorpCalitzdorp

ClanwilliamClanwilliam

De DoornsDe Doorns

De RustDe Rust

DoringbaaiDoringbaai

DysselsdorpDysselsdorp

EendekuilEendekuil

ElandsbaaiElandsbaai

FriemersheimFriemersheim

GenadendalGenadendal

GoedverwachtGoedverwacht

GoudaGouda

GraafwaterGraafwater

Cape TownCape Town

AshtonAshton

Beaufort West*Beaufort West*

CeresCeres

ElimElim

FranschhoekFranschhoek

GansbaaiGansbaai

George*George*

GrabouwGrabouw

HermanusHermanus

KalbaskraalKalbaskraal

KlapmutsKlapmuts

Knysna*Knysna*

Oudtshoorn*Oudtshoorn*

Paarl*Paarl*

Plettenberg BayPlettenberg Bay

Cape TownCape Town

Beaufort WestBeaufort West

GeorgeGeorge

HermanusHermanus

KnysnaKnysna

MalmesburyMalmesbury

MosselbayMosselbay

OudtshoornOudtshoorn

PaarlPaarl

StellenboschStellenbosch

SwellendamSwellendam

Vredenburg / Vredenburg / SaldanhaSaldanha

VredendalVredendal

WellingtonWellington

WorcesterWorcester

Agulhas / Agulhas / StruisbaaiStruisbaai

AlbertiniaAlbertinia

ArnistonArniston

AuroraAurora

BarrydaleBarrydale

BonnievaleBonnievale

BuffelsbaaiBuffelsbaai

CitrusdalCitrusdal

DarlingDarling

DwarskersbosDwarskersbos

EbenhaeserEbenhaeser

GouritsmondGouritsmond

GreytonGreyton

HopefieldHopefield

JongensfonteinJongensfontein

FoundationFoundation1996 Provincial Agricultural summit1996 Provincial Agricultural summit2001 Strategic plan for SA Agriculture2001 Strategic plan for SA AgricultureiKapa Elihlumayo StrategiesiKapa Elihlumayo Strategies

(MEDS, SIP, PSDF, Social Capital, HCD, etc.)(MEDS, SIP, PSDF, Social Capital, HCD, etc.)ASGISAASGISA

ProcessProcessPGDS of December 2003PGDS of December 2003

Agriculture identified as key sectorAgriculture identified as key sectorProcess launch in April 2004Process launch in April 2004

Steering committeeSteering committee8 persons for each of 4 social partners8 persons for each of 4 social partners8 Focus areas identified8 Focus areas identified

First draft released for public comment: 23 June 2005First draft released for public comment: 23 June 2005Signed by partners on 12 May 2006Signed by partners on 12 May 2006

AGRICULTURAL & AGRIBUSINESS AGRICULTURAL & AGRIBUSINESS STRATEGYSTRATEGY


THE CONTEXT OF FARMINGTHE CONTEXT OF FARMING


PEOPLE

PROFIT

PLANET

Land, water, climate

Πmax=∑(U,Y)-∑(P,X)

Human nexus

Schools

Relationships

Relaxation

Art

Remittances

Flora

Forests

Off-farmTax

R/$Tariffs

Subsidies

Mining

Sea

Itsy

Fauna

Fynbos

FeelyTree-hugging

HIV/Aids Climate change

THE STRATEGY: TURNING FARMINGTHE STRATEGY: TURNING FARMING


Land, water, climate

Πmax=∑(U,Y)-∑(P,X)

Human nexus

HRD, Social & Farm worker issues

Competitiveness, marketing & market access

Research & Development

Extension & Farmer support

Natural resources, food safety & security

Physical infrastructure

Institutional infrastructure

Land reform & Agribee

-100 Extension workers-Accelerated approval-Funding vehicle-Revisit ESTA Act

-Biodiversity-Food for all-Safe food

-Career paths-Security of tenure-Safe social environment

-More mentors-Access to tech.

-Innovation-Intelligence-Capacity-Climate

-Market identification & development-”Branding” the Western Cape

-Electricity-Housing-Roads-Education

-Agribusiness Investment Unit-Unified agriculture

THE STRATEGYTHE STRATEGYNumber of projects per focus areaNumber of projects per focus area


FOCUS AREAFOCUS AREA NrNr

Land reform & AgribeeLand reform & Agribee 1919

HRD, Social & Farm worker issuesHRD, Social & Farm worker issues 44

Competitiveness, marketing & market accessCompetitiveness, marketing & market access 1313

Research & DevelopmentResearch & Development 2424

Extension & Farmer supportExtension & Farmer support 66

Physical infrastructurePhysical infrastructure 1212

Natural environment, food safety & securityNatural environment, food safety & security 44

Institutional arrangementsInstitutional arrangements 88

TOTALTOTAL 9090

Provincial Economic Review & Provincial Economic Review & Outlook (PERO)Outlook (PERO)

TreasuryTreasury

Annual overviewAnnual overview

State of the Province Address State of the Province Address (SOPA)(SOPA)

OTHER PROVINCIALOTHER PROVINCIAL


Four Social PartnersFour Social PartnersNegotiations started on 3 June 2008Negotiations started on 3 June 2008Draft Resolution tabled on 18 June 2008Draft Resolution tabled on 18 June 2008Agreement on:Agreement on:

Food GardensFood GardensCommunal & HouseholdCommunal & HouseholdMap, consolidate, expandMap, consolidate, expandReview availability of public landReview availability of public land

Expand School FeedingExpand School FeedingMap Nutrition Centers (Soup Kitchens)Map Nutrition Centers (Soup Kitchens)

Fill gapsFill gaps

Investigate Food BanksInvestigate Food BanksEstablish CooperativesEstablish CooperativesBasic servicesBasic services

Threshold for basic servicesThreshold for basic servicesReview indigent policiesReview indigent policies

Focus onFocus on27 Areas27 AreasChildrenChildrenWomen are centre of strategy.Women are centre of strategy.

Establish strong links with retailersEstablish strong links with retailersConsult local communitiesConsult local communitiesFurther debate on long term issues and interventionsFurther debate on long term issues and interventions

FOOD SUMMITFOOD SUMMIT


the endthe end

Documents

Creating a nutritious home for all. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Western Cape Department of Agriculture (Prepared by: Dirk Troskie, Specialist Agricultural Economist)