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CPFR ®協同規劃預測和補貨──供銷關係的重新界定
國立中央大學 . 資訊管理系范錚強
Tel: (03)426-7250
mailto: [email protected]
http://www.mgt.ncu.edu.tw/~ckfarn
2005.03
2
供應鏈中的電子化觀念
QR: Quick Response1984, 主要是服飾業快速反應顧客需求解決庫存積壓和過期問題
ECR: Efficient Consumer Response1992, 零售業,擴大 QR 觀念涵蓋供應商和製造商
VMI/SMICPFR® : Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment
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CPFR ® : 協同規劃、預測和供貨
1990 代初, Wal-Mart 和 Warner-Lambert 開始新嘗試根據此觀念 VICS (Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards ) 發展 CPFR 模型優點
降低庫存降低缺貨增加營業額
Develop front-end agreement
Create joint business plan
Create sales forecast
Identify and resolve exceptions
Create order forecast
Identify and resolve exceptions
Order generation
Source: www.cpfr.org
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Tasks that Support Collaboration
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CPFR Scenarios
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Collaboration Role Alternatives
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Conventional Organizational Roles
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Collaborative Organizational Structure
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Resolve / Collaborate On Exception Items
Identify Exceptions for Sales Forecast
Create Joint Business Plan
Distributor Business Development Activities
Manufacturer Business Development Activities
Manufacturer Materials & Production
Planning
Create Sales Forecast
Create Order Forecast
Identify Exceptions for Order Forecast
Resolve / Collaborate On Exception Items
Order Generation Produce Product
Delivery ExecutionOrder Filling /
Shipment ExecutionDistributor Receiving
Retail Store
Consumer
LongTerm
Feedback
POS Data
Short Term
Order / PO
Distributor Exception Triggers
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3
4
5
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Product
Updated Data for Exception Items
Exception Items
Order filling feedback
Manufacturer Exception Triggers
Frozen Forecast
Key :Distributor
Activities
Either / J oint
Activities
Manufacturer
Activities
Business Model - Scenario B
Exception Items
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Distributor Exception Triggers
Manufacturer Exception Triggers
Distributor Decision Support Data
ManufacturerDecision Support Data
Plan
nin
gF
orecastin
gR
eplen
ishm
ent
Develop Front-End Agreement1
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Order Forecast
Constraints
Excep
tion
Criteria
Excep
tion
Criteria
Distributor Decision Support Data
ManufacturerDecision Support Data
Unresolved Supply Constraints
Business model: B
Source: www.cpfr.org
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CPFR Technology
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觀念:例外處理
雙方長期合作對合作達成承諾
規劃合作的營運計畫
預測雙方預測間的差異的解決
供貨、訂單雙方訂單間的差異的解決
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精確的伙伴預測
Time
Sales
Retailer forecast too low
Retailer forecast too high
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階段性差異
Time
Sales
using point-of-sales data to rapidly update forecasts for new products
sharing of planning information automatic
monitoring of sales, shared exception alerts
using the supplier’s forecast
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資料來源
http://www.cpfr.org
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個案
力山 case製商整合 e 化個案集(第一冊), 教育部,2004
討論請探討 JIT, VMI, CPFR 三者在供銷關係上的差異個案問題 1-5