BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK

EXTREME

EA1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - 3rd quarter 2018

UNITED STATES

MEXICO

ALGERIA

ICELAND

CCO

MALI

TUNISIA

COSTA RICA

PANAMA

REPUBLIC

HAITI

CUBA

GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

JAMAICA

GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GHANA

MAURITIUS

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

GROENLAND(DENMARK)

BURKINAFASO

SENEGALCABO VERDE

ITALY

SPAINPORTUGAL

FRANCE

GERMANY

SWITZERLAND

CANADAIRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

BELGIUM

BELIZE

BRAZIL

ARGENTINA

PERU

BOLIVIA

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

KENYA

DR CONGO

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO

ANGOLA

NAMIBIA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA

DOMINICAN

GUYANASURINAME

BURUNDI

UGANDA

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANAPARAGUAY

CHILE

URUGUAY

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

LIBYAEGYPT

SUDAN

MADAGASCAR

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

ETHIOPIA

TANZANIA

MAURITANIA

GABON

NIGERIA

CHAD

IVORYCOAST

TOGO

SAO TOME& PRINCIPE

RWANDA

ERITREA

CAMEROON

BENIN

CONGO

SAUDIARABIA

PAKISTAN

OMAN

YEMEN

IRAQIRAN

DJIBOUTI

KUWAIT

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

AFGHANISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

INDIA

TURKEY

BANGLADESH

ISRAEL

JORDAN

SYRIALEBANON

CYPRUS

NEPAL

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

BAHRAINQATAR

UZBEKISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

HUNGARY

POLAND

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

BOSNIA

GREECE

AUSTRIA

SLOVENIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

SLOVAKIA

NORWAY

SWEDEN

FINLAND

UKRAINE

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

BELARUS

CHINA

INDONESIA

PHILIPPINES

MORO

SRI LANKA

MYANMAR

VIETNAMCAMBODIA

LAOS

MALAYSIA

TAIWAN

MALDIVES

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

THAILAND

RUSSIA

AUSTRALIA

MONGOLIA

JAPAN

PAPUANEW GUINEA

NEW ZEALAND

SOUTH KOREA

GUINEA-BISSAU

SERBIA

MALTA

PALESTINIANTERRITORIES

NORTH KOREA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

TIMOR-LESTE

SOUTHSUDAN

MOLDOVIA

CROATIA

PANAMA

D

TURKEY

SYRIACYPRUSCYPRUSCYPRUS

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

C

OMANOMANOMAN

DMEXICO

TURKEY

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN

UNITED KINGDOM

FINLAND

SWEDEN

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

ICELAND

IRELAND

RUSSIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ROMANIA

POLAND

UKRAINE

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

GREECE

ALBANIA

MONTENEGRO

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SERBIA

NETHERLANDS

LUXEMBOURG

ESTONIA

BELARUS

MALTA

CYPRUS

MOLDOVA

BELGIUM

NORWAY

SLOVENIA

MACEDONIA

SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA

ITATAT LYLYLMONTENEGRO

CR

A4

POLAND

AKIA

A2

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

NEW ZEALANDNEW ZEALAND

•� Intensifi cation of the sociopolitical crisis that has taken hold since April 2018 limits fi rms’ activity. Investments have dried up;•� Further US sanctions can be expected;•� Contraction of the economy in 2018 (-0.9% vs 4.9% initially) and a forecast 3% growth in 2019, mainly thanks to base e� ects;•� A depreciated currency and lower FDIs, in a context of higher oil prices, could further weaken the external accounts of the country.

DNICARAGUA

•� Clear recovery in growth: 7.5% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018;•� Comfortable foreign exchange reserves; •� Financial support from the Diaspora;•� Rise in ore prices, which has contributed to recovery in industrial activity.

CARMENIA

•� Accelerating GDP growth expected in 2018 (3.9%) and 2019(4.2%) driven by household consumption which is supported by solid real wage growth and historically low unemployment;•� Accelerating investments thanks to projects in the automotive industry;•� The general government defi cit narrowed to 1.0% in 2017, i.e. its lowest level in history;•� Company insolvencies decreased by 27% in 2017 with further contraction expected.

SLOVAKIA A2

•� Tourism (25% of GDP) is booming (growth forecast of 3% in 2018);•� Household consumption is boosted by dynamic employment, real disposable income growth, credit recovery and remittances from a growing number of expatriates;•� The orderly resolution of the Agrokor food conglomerate case has contributed to renewed confi dence among companies;•� The country is now out of EU procedures for excessive defi cit.

CROATIA A4 DPAKISTAN

•� Taking into account its elevated and widening fi scal and current account defi cits, low foreign exchange reserves and debt maturities coming up this year, Pakistan is at risk of defaulting; •� The rupee depreciated by 12% against the US dollar in the fi rst half of 2018, leading to a steeper import bill and higher infl ation; •� Pakistan will also have to navigate an uncertain political landscape.

UPGRADES DOWNGRADES

CARTES AVEC_SANS COMMENTS.indd 4 08/10/2018 16:51