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1. Population statistics - ISTAT (Italian national institute for statistics)
1a. Population mortality
1b. Other population statistics
1c. Mortality projections
2. Pensioners’ mortality - ONA (Actuarial professional body)
3. Annuitants’ mortality - ANIA (Association of Italian insurers)
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1. Population statistics (ISTAT)
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Survival curves lx (males)
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20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
lx
age
ISTAT 1881
ISTAT 1901
ISTAT 1931
ISTAT 1951
ISTAT 1961
ISTAT 1971
ISTAT 1981
ISTAT 1991
ISTAT 2001
ISTAT 2011
1a. Population mortality
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Curves of deaths dx (males)
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1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
dx
age
ISTAT 1881
ISTAT 1901
ISTAT 1931
ISTAT 1951
ISTAT 1961
ISTAT 1971
ISTAT 1981
ISTAT 1991
ISTAT 2001
ISTAT 2011
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Mortality profiles (males)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
qx(t
)/qx(1
901)
Calendar year
x = 50
x = 55
x = 60
x = 65
x = 70
x = 75
x = 80
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
mark
er e0
Lexis
e65+65
Summary statistics (males)
Life expectancy (period), census 2011
At the birth • males: 79.4
• females: 84.5
At 65 • males: 18.4
• females: 21.5
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Curves of deaths over 65 (males)
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0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
ISTAT 1881
ISTAT 1901
ISTAT 1931
ISTAT 1951
ISTAT 1961
ISTAT 1971
ISTAT 1981
ISTAT 1991
ISTAT 2001
ISTAT 2011
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0
10000
20000
30000
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
lx
Age
M
F
Survival curves lx (2011; females - males)
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One-year prob. of death qx (2011; females - males)
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0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
60 65 70 75 80 85 90
qx
Age
M
F
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Population size
1b. Other population statistics
12 Population structure by age (2015)
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Population dynamics
Frequency of ISTAT population statistics
2012: shift from 10-year census statistics to “continuous-census” system: data are collected from local institutions (viz municipalities) on a one-year basis (validation procedures required)
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Most recent projection: 2012
Mortality projection based on Lee-Carter
Mortality projections in the framework of population projections
Three demographic scenarios defined: • unchanged current demographic scenario, extrapolation of recent
mortality trend central estimate
• various assumptions concerning immigration, fertility, etc. high and low estimates
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1c. Mortality projections
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Life expectancy at 65 (males)
2. Pensioners’ mortality (ONA)
Mortality of Italian pensioners and annuitants analyzed by a Working Group coordinated by Ordine Nazionale degli Attuari (the Italian actuarial professional body) Observation period: 1980 – 2009 Mortality projections to 2040 have been published • Reference population:
– almost 10 millions pensioners (in 2009), belonging to various pension plans, managed by public and private institutions
– corresponding to approx 142 billions Euro of annual benefits
• Projection methods adopted: – stochastic methods: Lee-Carter model, log-bilinerar Poisson model,
Renshaw-Haberman model with cohort effect – deterministic method: the APC (Age-Period-Cohort) model, proposed
by the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau in UK
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• Ultimate aim: construction of projected mortality tables, separately referring to various “categories”, and in particular: – pensioners of the private sector
– pensioners of the public sector
– self-employed, split into professional categories (lawyers, doctors, etc.)
Source (English text):
http://www.ordineattuari.it/media/6565/Rapporto%20percettori%20finale%20incl%20allegati%20inglese_580.pdf
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One-year prob. of death qx (males - females)
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One-year prob. of death qx (males - females)
Life expectancy at 65, males
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Life expectancy at 65, females
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Projected life expectancy at 65, males
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Projected life expectancy at 65, females
3. Annuitants’ mortality (ANIA) Construction of biometric bases for life annuities (2014)
Tables A1900-2020 • two-dimension tables; M, F
• derived from ISTAT 2011 projections, adjusted via self-selection coefficients (derived from CMI statistics)
Tables A62 • one-dimension tables, extracted from Tables A1900-2020: cohort
1962; M, F
• age-shift method for other cohorts
• different self-selection coefficients • A62I: immediate life annuities
• A62D: deferred life annuities
• A62C: group life annuities
• unisex tables, according to various gender mix assumptions
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