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Council 18th July 2008Budget 2008/09
and Long Term Plan to 2011/12
Key Points in Forecast
Growth in teaching income & student nos. Growth in funded research income &
margins. Positive trading surplus in all years, despite
impact of rising interest charges. Long term debt peaks at £130m before
falling to current level. Capital spend reaches £219m gross,
£118m net.
Operating and Trading Surplus
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005/06 2006/072007/08 2008/09 2009/102010/11 2011/12
£000 Operating
SurplusTradingSurplus
Operating Cash Flow
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
£000
Capital Expenditure Funding
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
£000
Retained cashCapital grants
Asset disposals
Borrowing---- Capital Expenditure
External Borrowing
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
£000
Key Ratios
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
OCF:interest 3.63 3.76 3.15 3.81
OCF:debt service
2.19 2.34 2.53 3.84
Debt service:turnover
3.72% 3.69% 3.29% 1.96%
Debt:net assets 35.27% 42.43% 37.75% 23.69%
Sensitivity Analysis 1
2008/09
£000
2009/10
£000
2010/11
£000
2011/12
£000
Contingency 1,192 2,012 3,382 3,426
Gas price -327 -323 -1240 -1304
Electricity price -68 -869 -1,168 -1,193
2008 pay award 4.1% not 3.5%
-634 -656 -679 -702
Sensitiviy Analysis 2
2008/09
£000
2009/10
£000
2010/11
£000
2011/12
£000
Pension costs up 1%
0 -1,381 -1,468 -1,543
O/seas students 1%
+/- 178 +/- 201 +/- 216 +/- 230
Research margin 1%
+/- 132 +/- 141 +/- 153 +/- 163
HEFCE income inflation +1%
0 +579 +605 +626
Key Uncertainties
Pay inflation, particularly impact of October 2008 increase.
Utility price inflation beyond our current contracts.
Ability to impact inflation associated with income.
Potential for extra costs of running USS and/or UoY pension schemes.
