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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The PC+ EraInfinite processing, memory, and bandwidth @ zero cost.
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
The only thing that matters at the end of the day is, it’s a great building.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The Highly Probable Future c2025 83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994
8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical records
Everything will be smart, responsive to environment.– Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering!– Fast broadband network– Smart appliances & AI – Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc.– Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor…
A “managed”, physical and man-made world– Reliable weather reports– “Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated,
controlled or prevented” Nobel prize to “economist” for “value of information”
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
PC At An Inflection Point
PCsPCsNon-PCNon-PCdevices and Internetdevices and Internet
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era, Not The Post-PC Era…Not The Post-PC Era…
Consumer Consumer PCsPCsTV/AVTV/AV MobileMobile
CompanionsCompanions
Household Household ManagementManagement
CommunicationsCommunications Automation Automation & Security & Security
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon BellJim Gemmell
Bay Area Research CenterMicrosoft Research
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
HomeCATV
Analog/digital cable distribution
PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital
Ethernet Home network
Video capture
“milliBill”
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations,
videos, DVDs, etc.3. Ethernet not cable?
Settopbox
Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
PC will prevail for the next decade as the dominant platform… to HPCC community its COTS! Moore’s Law to reduce price Lack of last mile bandwidth to move
pictures, data, and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs
Very large disks (1TB by 2005) to “store everything” personal
Screens to enhance use Home entertainment server… Office and portable requirements Etc.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
My betting record: No losses … so far (>5year old bets)
TMC & MPP will not be dominant by 1995 Video On Demand will not exist by 1995 AT&T acquisition of NCR will not be successful 10K desktop-desktop will not exist by 1/2001 1 B internet users by 1/2001 or 1/2002 Cars won’t drive themselves by 2005 PCs continue with 2 digit growth through 2002
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Outline Future predictions… 2020 and the world Caveat: How far out can we see? WWW just >5 years old Background: SNAP at RCI 3/95 conference, Albuquerque My own history of supercomputing… data/compute The hardware scene in 5-10 years?
– Processing and Moore’s Law– Networking– Disks
Challenges:– OSS– Communities with dbases & hs nets– ASP: workbenches– If simulation is third mode after theory, expt, what is 4th? connection with the experimental
world for data; then control… biologist workbench where work is being done.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
SNAP … as given at RCI, 3/95
Scalable Network And Platforms A View of Computing in 2000+
(I missed the impact of WWW)
Gordon Bell Jim Gray
NetworkPlatform
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
How Will Future Computers Be Built?
Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms• upsize from desktop to world-scale computer• based on a few standard components• similar to NEC’s Computers &
Communications 1983 visionBecause:
• Moore’s law: exponential progress
• Standardization & Commoditization• Stratification and competition
When: Sooner than you think!• massive standardization gives massive use • economic forces are enormous
NetworkPlatform
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Performance versus time for various microprocessors
2000199819961994199219901988198619841982198019781
10
100
1000
DECPCMIPS
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Volume drives simple,cost to standardplatforms
MPPs1-4 processor mP
1-20 processor mP
Distributed workstations
Clustered Computers
price for high speed
interconnect
price
performance
Stand-aloneDesk tops
PCs
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Section: The economics of operating systems and databases(or why NT has the advantageover proprietary or vanitychips and UNIX dialects )
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The UNIX Trap:creating the myth of “open systems”
“Standard” now means different!
VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing” market that provides an apparent, order of magnitude cost reduction
Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers ofproprietary UNIX dialects and unique chipsto maintain margins for chip and UNIX development
Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps
An implicit or unconscious cartel forms that maintains the industry status quo
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The UNIX Cartel and Tax:It’s not competitive andit introduces higher downstream costs 10,000 programmers @75 companies maintain dialects
R & D costs $1.4 - $2 billion
Implied selling price $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion, or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000
Cost could be reduced to $400 million for ONE UNIX,sales price for 1 million units would be $2,400 - 4,000
NT sales price is $650; OS2 needs to sell for $1.2b/6m
Furthermore:
The downstream effects on database vendors is40% R&D efficiency causingan implied database tax of 2.5x the sales price!
The downstream effects on apps vendors is similar
xx
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Section: SNAP Architecture----------
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
ComputingSNAPbuilt entirelyfrom PCs
Local & global data commworld
ATM† & LocalArea Networksfor: terminal,
PC, workstation,& servers
Centralized& departmental
uni- & mP servers(UNIX & NT)
Legacymainframes &
minicomputersservers & terms
Wide-areaglobal
ATM network
Legacymainframe &
minicomputerservers & terminals
Centralized& departmental
servers buit fromPCs
scalable computers
built from PCs
TC=TV+PChome ...
(CATV or ATM or satellite)
???
Portables
A space, time (bandwidth), & generation scalable environment
Person servers (PCs)
Person servers (PCs)
MobileNets
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster
In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. managed by PCs!
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
High Performance Computing
A 60+ year view
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Star Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Linux super howls
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society ACRI Alliant American Supercomputer Ametek Applied Dynamics Astronautics BBN CDC Convex Cray Computer Cray Research Culler-Harris Culler Scientific Cydrome Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent Denelcor Elexsi ETA Systems Evans and Sutherland Computer Floating Point Systems Galaxy YH-1
Goodyear Aerospace MPP Gould NPL Guiltech Intel Scientific Computers International Parallel Machines Kendall Square Research Key Computer Laboratories MasPar Meiko Multiflow Myrias Numerix Prisma Tera Thinking Machines Saxpy Scientific Computer Systems (SCS) Soviet Supercomputers Supertek Supercomputer Systems Suprenum Vitesse Electronics
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Steve Squires & Cray
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)
Petaflops study target
NEC
XMP NCube
CM2
*IBM
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Top 10 tpc-c
Top two Compaq systems are:Top two Compaq systems are:1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1/3 price of IBM1/3 price of IBM1/5 price of SUN1/5 price of SUN
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
High Performance Computing
Supers we knew are Japanese… scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your
own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84
GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk)$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys”
$10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC
EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
High performance architectures timeline
1950 . 1960 . 1970 . 1980 . 1990 . 2000Vtubes Trans. MSI(mini) Micro RISC nMicr
“IBM PC”Processor overlap, lookahead “killer micros”
Cray era 6600 7600 Cray1 X Y C TFunc Pipe Vector-----SMP---------------->
SMP mainframes---> “multis”----------->DSM?? Mmax.KSR SGI---->
Clusters TandmVAX IBM UNIX->
MPP if n>1000 Ncube Intel IBM->
Local NOW and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
High performance architectures timeline
1950 . 1960 . 1970 . 1980 . 1990 . 2000Vtubes Trans. MSI(mini) Micro RISC nMicr
“IBM PC”Sequential programming---->------------------------------
(single execution stream e.g. Fortran) Processor overlap, lookahead “killer micros”
Cray era 6600 7600 Cray1 X Y C TFunc Pipe Vector-----SMP---------------->
SMP mainframes---> “multis”----------->DSM?? Mmax.KSR DASHSGI--->
<SIMD Vector--//--------------- Parallelization---
-----------------THE NEW BEGINNING-----------------------Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <---------------multicomputers <--MPP era------Clusters TandmVAX IBM UNIX->MPP if n>1000 Ncube Intel IBM->Local NOW Beowlf
and Global Networks n>10,000 Grid
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
High performance architecture/program timeline
1950 . 1960 . 1970 . 1980 . 1990 . 2000Vtubes Trans. MSI(mini) Micro RISC nMicr
Sequential programming---->------------------------------(single execution stream)<SIMD Vector--//--------------- Parallelization---
Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <---------------multicomputers <--MPP era------ultracomputers 10X in size & price! 10x MPP
“in situ” resources 100x in //sm NOW VLSCCgeographically dispersed Grid
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Computer types
NetwrkedSupers…
GRIDLegionCondor Beowulf NT clusters
VPPuni
T3E SP2(mP) NOW
NEC mP
SGI DSM clusters &SGI DSM
NEC super Cray X…T(all mPv)
MainframesMultis
WSs PCs
-------- Connectivity--------
WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM
mic
ros
v
ecto
r
Clusters
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Technical computer types:Pick of: 4 nodes, 2-3 interconnects
Fujitsu Hitachi
IBM ?PC? SGI cluster Beow/NT
NEC
SGI DSM T3 HP?
NEC super Cray ???FujitsuHitachiHP IBM
Intel SUNplain old
PCs
SAN DSM SMP
mic
ros
v
ecto
r
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Technical computer types
NetwrkedSupers…
GRID
LegionCondor Beowulf
VPPuni
SP2(mP) NOW
NEC mP
T series
SGI DSM clusters &SGI DSM
NEC super Cray X…T(all mPv)
MainframesMultis
WSs PCs
WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM
mic
ros
v
ecto
r
OldWorld( one
programstream)
New world: Clustered
Computing(multiple program
streams)
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Technical computer types
NetwrkedSupers…
GRID
LegionCondor Beowulf
VPPuni
SP2(mP) NOW
NEC mP
T series
SGI DSM clusters &SGI DSM
NEC super Cray X…T(all mPv)
MainframesMultis
WSs PCs
WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM
mic
ros
v
ecto
r
VectorizeParallellelizeMPI, Linda, PVM,
Cactus, ???distributed function
Computing Parallellelize
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Gaussian Parallelism
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Beyond Moore’s Law …>10 yrs Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)…
COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for
another decade for: processing & memory,
storage, LANs, & WANs are really evolving System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost
systems No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores Any displacement technology is unlikely
… Carver Mead’s Law c1980A technology takes 11 years to get established
On the other hand, we are on Internet time!
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
We get more of everything
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Computer ops/sec x word length / $
y = 1E-248e0.2918x
1.E-06
1.E-03
1.E+00
1.E+03
1.E+06
1.E+09
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
.=1.565^(t-1959.4)
doubles every 7.5
doubles every 2.3
doubles every 1.0
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996P
erf
orm
an
ce in
Mfl
op
/s
Micros
Supers
8087 802876881
80387
R2000
i860
RS6000/540Alpha
RS6000/590Alpha
Cray 1S
Cray X-MP
Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90Cray T90
1998
Growth of microprocessor performance
1980
1982
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Albert Yu predictions ‘96
When 2000 2006
Clock (MHz) 900 4000
MTransistors 40 350
Mops 2400 20,000
Die (sq. in.) 1.1 1.4
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Processor Limit: DRAM GapµProc60%/yr..
DRAM7%/yr..
1
10
100
10001980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
DRAM
CPU
1982
Processor-MemoryPerformance Gap:(grows 50% / year)
Per
form
ance
• Alpha 21264 full cache miss / instructions executed: 180 ns/1.7 ns =108 clks x 4 or 432 instructions• Caches in Pentium Pro: 64% area, 88% transistors*Taken from Patterson-Keeton Talk to SigMod
“Moore’s Law”
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Sony Playstation export limiits
System-on-a-chip alternatives
FPGA Sea of un-committed gate arrays
Xylinx, Altera
Compile a system
Unique processor for every app
Tensillica
Systolic | array
Many pipelined or parallel processors
DSP | VLIW
Special purpose processors
TI
Pc & Mp.
ASICS
Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc.
Intel, Lucent, IBM
Universal Micro
Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o
Cradle
Cradle: Universal Microsystemtrading Verilog & hardware for C/C++
Single part for all apps Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including:
1 GB/s; 2.5 GipsPCI, 100 baseT, firewire
$4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops
UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systemsSoftware : Hardware
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
C LO C KS,D EBU G
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R YD R AMC O N TR O L
MSP
D R AM
PR O G I/O PR O G I/O PR
OG
I/O
PR
OG
I/O
PR
OG
I/O
PROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/O
PR
OG
I/OP
RO
G I/O
PR
OG
I/O
N VM EM
UMS Architecture
Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Free 32 bit processor core
Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere
Software is or should be free All source code is “open” Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when
everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for
any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
ISTORE Hardware Vision
System-on-a-chip enables computer, memory, without significantly increasing size of disk
5-7 year target:MicroDrive:1.7” x 1.4” x 0.2”
2006: ?1999: 340 MB, 5400 RPM,
5 MB/s, 15 ms seek2006: 9 GB, 50 MB/s ? (1.6X/yr capacity, 1.4X/yr BW)
Integrated IRAM processor2x height
Connected via crossbar switchgrowing like Moore’s law
16 Mbytes; ; 1.6 Gflops; 6.4 Gops10,000+ nodes in one rack! 100/board = 1 TB; 0.16 Tf
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The Disk Farm? or a System On a Card?
The 500GB disc cardAn array of discsCan be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 50 FT discs ....etcLOTS of accesses/second of bandwidth
A few disks are replaced by 10s of Gbytes of RAM and a processor to run Apps!!
14"
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Nanochip.com
8
Trends: promises NEMS (Nano Electro Mechanical Systems)(http://www.nanochip.com/) also Cornell, IBM, CMU,…
• 250 Gbpsi by using tunneling electronic microscope
• Disk replacement
• Capacity: 180 GB now, 1.4 TB in 2 years
• Transfer rate: 100 MB/sec R&W
• Latency: 0.5msec
• Power: 23W active, .05W Standby
• 10k$/TB now, 2k$/TB in 2002
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Disk vs TapeAt 10K$/TB disks are competitive with nearline tape.
Disk– 40 GB– 20 MBps– 5 ms seek time– 3 ms rotate latency– 7$/GB for drive
3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet– 4 TB/rack
– 1 hour scan
Tape– 40 GB– 10 MBps– 10 sec pick time– 30-120 second seek time– 2$/GB for media
8$/GB for drive+library– 10 TB/rack
– 1 week scan
The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and the performance advantage of disk is growing
GuestimatesCern: 200 TB3480 tapes2 col = 50GBRack = 1 TB=20 drives
1988 Federal Plan for Internet
Telnet & FTP
WWW Audio Video
Voice!Voice!
StandardsStandards
Increase Capacity(circuits & bw)
Lower response time
Create newservice
Increased Demand
The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
744Mbps over 5000 km to transmit 14 GB
~ 4e15 bit meters per second
4 Peta Bmps (“peta bumps”)Single Stream tcp/ip throughput
Information Sciences InstituteMicrosoft
QWestUniversity of Washington
Pacific Northwest GigapopHSCC (high speed connectivity
consortium)DARPA
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Map of Gray Bell Prize resultsRedmond/Seattle, WA
San Francisco, CA
New York
Arlington, VA
5626 km10 hops
single-thread single-stream tcp/ip single-thread single-stream tcp/ip via 7 hopsvia 7 hops desktop-to-desktop …Win 2K desktop-to-desktop …Win 2K
out of the box performance*out of the box performance*
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
1 GBps1 GBps
Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years
1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.– Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,
ServerNet,, ATM,…
10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)
– 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x,
wow!!
5 MBps20 MBps
40 MBps
80 MBps
120 MBps120 MBps(1Gbps)(1Gbps)
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
0
50
100
150
200
250
100Mbps Gbps SAN
Transmitreceivercpusender cpu
Time µs toSend 1KB
The Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years http://www.ViArch.org/
Yesterday: – 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet)
– ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus
– round-trip latency ~250 µs
Now– Wires are 10x faster
Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet, ServerNet,…
– Fast user-level communication
- tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% cpu- round-trip latency is 15 us
1.6 Gbps demoed on a WAN
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
How much does wire-time cost? $/Mbyte?Odlyzko, 1998 & Jim Gray
Seat cost$/3y
BandwidthB/s $/MB Time
GBpsE 2000 1.00E+08 2.E-07 0.010100MbpsE 700 1.00E+07 7.E-07 0.100OC12 12960000 5.00E+07 3.E-03 0.020OC3 3132000 3.00E+06 1.E-02 0.333T1 28800 1.00E+05 3.E-03 10.000DSL 2300 4.00E+04 6.E-04 25.000POTS 1180 5.00E+03 2.E-03 200.000
Cost
($) Time Gbps Ethernet .2µ 10 ms 100 Mbps Ethernet .3µ 100 ms OC12 (650 Mbps) .003 20 ms DSL .0006 25 sec POTs .002 200 sec Wireless .80 500 sec
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Modern scalable switches … are also supercomputers
Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to
10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
So where are the challenges?
Continued development based on clusters… Scalar processors need to compete with vectors. The U.S. has cast its lot with COTS!
WWW is here. Now exploit it in every respect.– Exploit OSS!
Grid Application Service Providers for scientific
and technical apps– Biologist and chemist workbenches are prototypes– Labscape @ Cell laboratory, U. of WA– Sloan sky survey
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Labscape1st, 2nd, 3rd, or New Paradigm for science?
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Labscape
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Labscape
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
Labscape sensors
Location tracking of people/samples– multiple resolutions – passive and active tags
Manual tasks (e.g., use of reagents, tools)
Audio/video records, vision and indexing Networked instruments (e.g., pipettes,
refrigerators, etc.)
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
What am I willing to predict? Processing can be anywhere…
– Maui… in the winter. BW is the limiter!– Japan… if supers are so super, otherwise use PCs– In the disks– Application Service Providers: separation of our data from
ourselves and businesses The GRID e.g. biologist & chemist workbenches iff the
IP doesn’t get in way Collaboration ala astrophysics (high energy physics,
math, earth sci. and any pure science if pure science continues!)
OSS is the big bang for supercomputing??
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray PC+
The End