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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law
The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law
Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf
Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing, memory, storage, LANs, WANs
System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems
Any displacement technology is unlikely… Carver Mead’s Law c1980A technology takes 11 years to get established
On the other hand, we are on Internet time! No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law Results
Is the Internet aka www.everything? Moore’s Law to get cheaper, one chip
systems that increase portability, ubiquity, etc.
Paper-competitive Screens Disks of 1 TB Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS Bridges to television Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law Results The more uniform the system,
the more attractive it is for developers to produce many varieties of low cost apps
The more uniform the system, the more susceptible they are to viruses
Change will be due to ubiquity of computing brought about by networking
PLUS Interesting, new platforms that interface use/users
– When can we speak to these computers?– Sensors e.g. cameras of all types– GPS and direction (pointing)– MEMS & Biochips in particular
There are many other laws and forces, beyond Moore’s Law that determine IT
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Big event of 1999: massive infusion of venture capital
>$3 Billion/quarter (1/3 for Internet).…Esprit $3B/3 yrs
Capital is pulling people from research. Product development beats research if you
have an idea what you’re looking for Little technology. Apps development. 1960-2000: shift from central to distributed
back to fully distributed computing
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Forecast of corp web-enabled expenditures
In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking????– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
What if could or when can we store everything we’ve: read/written, heard, and seen?
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (listened to), & seen (presented)Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G
speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
High Performance Computing
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)
Petaflops study target
NEC
XMP NCube
CM2
*IBM
Computer types
NetwrkedSupers…
GRIDLegionCondor Beowulf NT clusters
VPPuni
T3E SP2(mP) NOW
NEC mP
SGI DSM clusters &SGI DSM
NEC super Cray X…T(all mPv)
MainframesMultis
WSs PCs
-------- Connectivity--------
WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM
mic
ros
v
ecto
r
Clusters
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
High Performance Computing
Supers we knew are Japanese; scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your
own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84
GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk)$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys”
$10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC
EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers!by a hierarchy of computers!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. printed matter Bit tokens e.g. money State: places, things, and people State: physical networks
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace
New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution
Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization
New apps and content develop around each new class
Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards
Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
MiniMini
TimeTime
Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)
PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo
g p
rice
Lo
g p
rice
WSsWSs
HandheldHandheld ?? ??
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
Price, performance, and class of various goods & services
Computer price = $10 x 10 class#
Computer weight = .05 x 10 class#
Car price = $6K x 1.5 class #
Transportation artifact prices = k x $10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,... ICBMs)
French Restaurants(t='95) =f(ambiance, location) x $25 x 1.5 stars
•
Bell’s Ten+ Computer Price Tiers
Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers
100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers
(closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass
castle) 100,000,000$: national centers 1,000,000,000$: the grid
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
On body and in body networks
Third wearables conference
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Libretto, .5mm
PCS; Pilot
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife
Compass; altimeter
Not shown: ECG; GPS;
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
22 years ago: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Steve ManninCyberspace
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
CMU wearable computers
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
MedronIc
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Your husband just died, … here’s his black box
When will we have smart rooms? Reasonable sized displays or panel for
interaction Cameras that can recognize various people Mics and Speech based interface Speakers Coupled to all power, data, audio, and
video/television networks
Interval Research has a product to track individuals in stores!
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Or be completely covered by a smart world
450 Old Oak Ct, Los Altos, CA
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Webcams
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Webcam of Hospital in Sweden
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Economics-based laws determine the market As industries increase, they become horizontal Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software Linus’s Law for software… it is free plus support Sarnoff & Metcalf Laws for the “value of a network”
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Consult
Apps
Apps
Dbases
OS
Network
Periph
Computers
Micros
Solutions
Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.
Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, NovellMicrosoft, Apple, Sun, Novell
Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAPComshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP
HP, Canon, Lexmark, SeagateHP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate
Novell, Microsoft, BanyanNovell, Microsoft, Banyan
IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many othersIBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others
Intel, AMD, Motorola, othersIntel, AMD, Motorola, others
Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.
EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSIEDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI
Computer Industry 1995
Applications
Applications
Databases
OS
Switching
Computers
DSP
Processors
Microsoft, Delrina, many othersMicrosoft, Delrina, many others
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUXMicrosoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX
Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, othersEricsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others
Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, othersDialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others
Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, othersEricsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others
Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many othersCompaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others
Intel, AMD, Motorola, othersIntel, AMD, Motorola, others
Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, othersInformix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others
Future Telecom Industry
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Internet Industry (circa 1999)Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures
TransportTransportNetwork Hardware/ProtocolsNetwork Hardware/Protocols
Computers & Operating Layer SoftwareComputers & Operating Layer SoftwareApplications & MiddlewareApplications & Middleware
Info
ba
se s
/Po
r ta l
sIn
f ob
as
e s/P
ort
als
Pro
cur e
men
tP
r ocu
r em
ent
Co
mm
un
i ca t
ion
Co
mm
un
i cat
ion
Su
pp
l y C
hai
nS
up
ply
Ch
a in
ER
PE
RP
Pro
f ess
i on
a lP
r of e
ssi o
nal
Fin
anci
a lF
inan
cial
Op
era t
ion
sO
per
atio
ns
Mar
ket i
ng
Mar
ket i
ng
Internet Services$170B*
Infrastructure$171B*
AccessAccessPersonal/Employee DataPersonal/Employee Data
Go
vern
men
tG
ove
rnm
ent
Content SyndicatorsContent SyndicatorsContent Syndication
$2B+ **
Web HostingWeb Hosting
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Nathan’s Laws of software
1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in
2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law
3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible
4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation
…GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode
Software Economics: Bill’s Law
Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price
Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price
Examples: –UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500–Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000–No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...
Commoditization of base software and hardware
PricePriceFixed_costFixed_cost
Marginal _costMarginal _cost==UnitsUnits
++
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsInno
vatio
n
The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry
Volum
e
Competition
Standards
Utility/value
Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere
Software is or should be free All source code is “open” Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when
everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for
any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Sarnoff’s Law
The value of a network is proportional to the number of its users
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Metcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = Users2
How many connections can it make?– 1 user: no utility– 100,000 users: a few contacts– 1 million users: many on Net– 1 billion users: everyone on Net
That is why the Internet is so “hot”– Exponential benefit
Telnet & FTP
WWW Audio Video
Voice!Voice!
StandardsStandards
Increase Capacity(circuits & bw)
Lower response time
Create newservice
Increased Demand
The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
What is the value of combined network when television, telephone, and hand
held web devices are added?
How do you build a home network infrastructure,
platforms, and interface to uses
HomeCATV
Analog/digital cable distribution
PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital
Ethernet Home network
Video capture
“milliBill”
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations,
videos, DVDs, etc.3. Ethernet not cable?
Settopbox
Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon BellJim Gemmell
Bay Area Research CenterMicrosoft Research
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Voice to WEBVoice to WEBBridgeBridge
Web ServerWeb Server
TheTheWebWeb
DataBaseDataBase
PSTNPSTN
The Next ConvergencePOTS connects to the Weba.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way.
WebOnPhonWebOnPhonee
Mission:Mission:
WebOnPhone
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
Will we have gateways?
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new interfaces enable the new computers
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
1. We get more
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
StorageStorageBackboneBackbone
MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing
Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year
????
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)
1
10
100
1000
10000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Mem
ory
siz
e (
Mb
yte
s/c
hip
) &
Mtr
an
sis
tors
/ ch
ip
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Mem(MBytes)
Micros Mtr/chip
Line width
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1995 2000 2005
1
10
100
1000
10000
1000003.5" Cap. (By tes )
1.3" Cap. (By tes )
Bits /s q. in.
Data-rate (By tes /s )
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996P
erf
orm
an
ce in
Mfl
op
/s
Micros
Supers
8087 802876881
80387
R2000
i860
RS6000/540Alpha
RS6000/590Alpha
Cray 1S
Cray X-MP
Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90Cray T90
1998
Growth of microprocessor performance
1980
1982
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Microprocessor performance
100 G
10 G
Giga
100 M
10 M
Mega
Kilo1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Peak Peak Advertised Advertised
Performance Performance (PAP)(PAP)
Moore’sMoore’sLawLaw
Real AppliedReal AppliedPerformance Performance
(RAP) (RAP) 41% Growth41% Growth
System-on-a-chip alternatives
FPGA Sea of un-committed gate arrays
Xylinx, Altera
Compile a system
Unique processor for every app
Tensillica
Systolic | array
Many pipelined or parallel processors
DSP | VLIW
Special purpose processors
TI
Pc & Mp.
ASICS
Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc.
Intel, Lucent, IBM
Universal Micro
Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o
Cradle
Cradle: Universal Microsystemtrading Verilog & hardware for C/C++
Single part for all apps Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including:
1 GB/s; 2.5 GipsPCI, 100 baseT, firewire
$4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops
UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systemsSoftware : Hardware
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R Y
C LO C KS,D EBU G
MSP
MSP
MSP
MSP
M EM O R YD R AMC O N TR O L
MSP
D R AM
PR O G I/O PR O G I/O PR
OG
I/O
PR
OG
I/O
PR
OG
I/O
PROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/OPROG I/O
PR
OG
I/OP
RO
G I/O
PR
OG
I/O
N VM EM
UMS Architecture
Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
1.E+21
1.E+18
1.E+15
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops
40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops
60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Communication rate(t) in log10(Kbps)
200519951985197519652
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
POTS
WAN
LAN
SAN/backpanels
1 Mb
1 Gb
1 Kb
???
???
POTS @17%/year
ISDN
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Nomadicity
Video... Plus >>B/W
Universality
USA Today 1 Sept. 99
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws0
0.2
0.4
0.8
2.0
199719981999200020012002
Circuit data<9.6kbps
HSCSD57.6kbps
GPRS115kbps
EDGE384kbps
UMTS2Mbps
0.1
The evolution of wireless data standards
T1, T3, …T1, T3, …
Public SpacesDiscovery of proximity services (flight schedules, mall directories)
Proxy Proxy ServerServer
PhonePhone
EthernetEthernet
Internet
WebWebServerServer 802.11802.11
IrDAIrDACellularCellular
BluetoothBluetooth
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
10 Tbps
100 Tbps
1 Tbps
100 Gbps
10 Gbps
1 Gbps
100 Mbps
10 Mbps
1 Mbps
100 Kbps
10 Kbps
1 Kbps
100 bps
10 bps
1 Pbps
Voice Traffic
56 KB
T1T3
OC-3OC-12
OC-48OC-192
OC-768
Voice Crossover
Internet TrafficMax. Port Speed
$100 M
$10 M
$1 M
$100 K
$100 K
1997 Breakpoint
Delay Engineered
Capacity E
ngineere
d
Max. Switch Speed
100 Pbps
10 Pbps
Internet growths vs timecourtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
2x 1GbE3x 1GbE
G8 Sonet
SC99NOCGigaPop
Juniper M40Cisco 12008
WestinGigaPop
Juniper M40
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Cisco 1800
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Juniper M40 NCSAUW
University of Washington Microsoft
Nortel NetworksNTON
SC99 @ Portland
1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps
HDTV streams= 1 Gbps
OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8
2x 1GbE3x 1GbE
G8 Sonet
SC99NOCGigaPop
Juniper M40Cisco 12008
WestinGigaPop
Juniper M40
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Cisco 1800
G2 SonetOC12 Sonet
Juniper M40 NCSAUW
University of Washington Microsoft
Nortel NetworksNTON
SC99 @ Portland
1 Gbps1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps
HDTV streams= 1 Gbps
OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8
http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/papers/Win2K_1Gbps.doc
1988 Federal Plan for Internet
In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking????– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
The End
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Things get cheaper
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!100000
10000
1000
100
$K 10
1
0.1
0.01 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
8 MB8 MB
1 MB1 MB
256 KB256 KB
64 KB64 KB
16 KB16 KB
Timeshared Timeshared systemssystems
Single-userSingle-usersystemssystems
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
VAX Planning Model 1975:I didn’t believe it The model was very good
– 1978 timeshared $250K VAXencost about $8K in 1997!
Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted
Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs
VAX ran out of address bits!
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Newer & cheaper always wins?… if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia
Old
NewNew
Old
NewNew
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
“The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”
PRICE
MainframeMainframe
ServerServer
PCPC
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms!
The investment in programs and processes to use them, and data exceed hardware costs
The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs
The goal of hardware suppliers is uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in
The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate and lock-in and operate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Computer industry growth(Gbell’s swag 12/99)
Machine class 1992 1998 2004Watch >Cellphone WAP >>Appliance of some type =TC (TV Computer) na = >>Handhelds >> =Network Computer - = >PC (portables) > > >PC (desktop) = = =Workstation = < <VendorIX server (mini) > >> >Mainframe < < <Super (classic) = < <<Scalable PCs = > >>= 0-10%, >10-20%, >> 20-30%; < -10%
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing LawsCopyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
The End