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7/30/2019 Cooler Heads Lindzen Talk PDF
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DeconstructingGlobal Warming
Richard S. Lindzen
Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
CEI
October 26, 2009
A pdf of these slides is available on request from [email protected]
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From the 1970s, there was a general feeling that
climate change would be an excellent vehicle for a
variety of agendas. People openly espousing thisincluded Bert Bolin, who was an adviser to the Swedish
prime minister, and later the first head of the IPCC.
Once the global issue emerged on the public scene,two cooperating institutions were formed in the 1990s
with interlocking leadership: The Tyndall Centre for
Climate Studies at the University of East Anglia, andthe Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The latter is headed by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
and the former by Michael Hulme. These institutions
epitomize the exploitation of the climate issue. Their
members constitute numerous participants in the
IPCC.
Recently, Hulme came out with an interesting book.
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The idea of climate change should be seen
as an intellectual resource around which our
collective and personal identities and projects
can form and take shape. We need to ask not
what we can do for climate change, but to ask
what climate change can do for us.
Because the idea of climate change is so
plastic, it can be deployed across many of our
human projects and can serve many of ourpsychological, ethical, and spiritual needs.
.
We will continue to create and tell new stories
about climate change and mobilize them in
support of our projects.
.
These myths transcend the scientificcategories of true' and false'" .
Here are some revealing quotes:Note that Hulme readily
acknowledges that the
science is uncertain, but he
concludes that this doesntmatter given the importance
of possible impacts and
the uses to which the issue
may be put.
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"Just the place for a Snark!" the Bellman cried,
As he landed his crew with care;
Supporting each man on the top of the tideBy a finger entwined in his hair.
"Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:
That alone should encourage the crew.Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:
What I tell you three times is true."
From Lewis Carrolls Hunting of the Snark.
As always in propaganda, repetition is an important tool. This was early
recognized by Lewis Carrol (as well as by Josef Goebbels).
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President Dwight D. Eisenhower, in his farewell addressto the nation in 1961, gave a warning that public policy
could itself become the captive of a scientific-
technological elite. He went on
Partly because of the huge costs involved, a
government contract becomes virtually a substitute
for intellectual curiosityThe prospect of dominationof the nations scholars by Federal employment,
project allocations, and the power of money is ever
present - and is gravely to be regarded.
The cooptation of science turns out to be an easy matter that I have
described in detail in a recent publication (Climate Science is it designed
to answer questions?) The vulnerability of science was certainly well
understood by President Eisenhower. His fears for the future were by nomeans restricted to the military-industrial complex, and have proven even
more prescient with time.
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After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
--Bertold Brecht, 1953
The Foreign Secretary accused the public yesterday of lacking a sense of urgency
in the face of the potentially devastating consequences of climate change. David
Miliband said that people had grown apathetic about the issue when they needed to
be galvanized into action before the Copenhagen climate change summit in
December.--Hannah Devlin, The Times, 23 October 2009
Courtesy of Benny Peiser
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12Pink fuzz represents stated uncertainty.
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0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 9 0 0 19 1 0 1 9 20 1 93 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 50 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 80 1 9 90 2 0 0 0 20 1 0
Year
Percentageofcountry
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0 .5
1
1 .5
190 0 19 10 1 92 0 19 30 1 940 1 95 0 1 9 60 1 970 198 0 19 90 2 000 201 0
Year
Temperaturea
nomaly(C)
Percentage of the U.S. Experiencing Drought Conditions
Northern Hemisphere Temperature
We see noevidence of
any
correlation.
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0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
1 6 0
1 8 0
1 9 0 0 1 9 1 0 1 9 2 0 19 3 0 1 9 4 0 19 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 19 8 0 1 9 9 0 20 0 0 2 0 1 0
Year
Yiel
d(bushelsperacr
e)
Wheat
Corn
U.S. Crop Yields INCREASING with warmingCorn (filled circles) and Wheat (open circles)
Here, there would appear to be correlation, but there are many other
reasons why crop yields happen to be increasing.
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When it comes to unusual climate (which always occurs
some place), most claims of evidence for global warming
are guilty of the prosecutors fallacy. For example this
confuses the near certainty of the fact that if A shoots B,
there will be evidence of gunpowder on As hand with the
assertion that if C has evidence of gunpowder on hishands then C shot B.
However, with global warming the line of argument is even
sillier. It generally amounts to something like if A kicked
up some dirt, leaving an indentation in the ground into
which a rock fell and B tripped on this rock and bumped
into C who was carrying a carton of eggs which fell andbroke, then if some broken eggs were found it showed
that A had kicked up some dirt.
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Equally ironic, the fact that the global meantemperature anomaly ceased increasing by the
mid nineties is acknowledged by modeling
groups as contradicting the main underlying
assumption of the so-called attribution
argument (Smith et al, 2007, Keenlyside et al,2008, Lateef, 2009). Yet the iconic statement
continues to be repeated as authoritative
gospel, and as implying catastrophe.
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Now, all projections of dangerous impacts hinge on
climate sensitivity. (To be sure, the projections ofcatastrophe also depend on many factors besides
warming itself.) Embarrassingly, the estimates of
the equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2 havebasically remained unchanged since 1979.
They are that models project a sensitivity of from1.5-5C. Is simply running models the way to
determine this? Why hasnt the uncertainly
diminished?
There follows a much more rigorous determination
using physics and satellite data.
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We have a 16-year (19851999) record of the earth radiation
budget from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE;
Barkstrom 1984) nonscanner edition 3 dataset. This is the onlystable long-term climate dataset based on broadband flux
measurements and was recently altitude-corrected (Wong et al.
2006). Since 1999, the ERBE instrument has been replaced bythe better CERES instrument. From the ERBE/CERES monthly
data, we calculated anomalies of LW-emitted, SW-reflected, and
the total outgoing fluxes.
We also have a record of sea surface temperature for the same
period from the National Center for Environmental Prediction.
Finally, we have the IPCC model calculated radiation budget formodels forced by observed sea surface temperature from the
Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Program at the Lawrence
Livermore Laboratory of the DOE.
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
SST
Anoma
ly(K)
This is the sea surface temperature (SST) record.
Red indicates warming incident, while Blue indicatescooling incident.
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
LW
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-8
0
8
SW
Anomaly(W
m
)-2
ERBE/ERBS NS CERES/Terra
The red curves are the anomalies of satellite OLR relative to the average
for the period 1985-89. The blue curves show reflected sunlight.
8
CCSM38
UKMO HadGEM1
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4
8
CCSM3
ECHAM5/MIP-OM FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.1 GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
OLR
anomaly(Wm
)-2
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-4
0
4UKMO-HadGEM1
The red
curves are the
anomalies of
satellite OLRrelative to the
average for
the period
1985-89. Theblack curves
are the OLRs
obtained from
IPCC models
forced by the
observed
SST.
88CCSM3UKMO-HadGEM1 The blue
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-8
0
ECHAM5/MIP-OM FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.1 GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0 IPSL-CM4
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
SWRanomaly(Wm
)-2
curves are
the
anomalies
of satelliteSW
radiation
relative to
the averagefor the
period
1985-89.
The black
curves are
the SWRs
obtained
from IPCC
modelsforced by
the
observed
SST.
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Q
Q
Q
T0
T
G0
G0
a. No Feedback Case
b. Feedback Case
FF T
T =G Q0 0
T=G ( Q+F T)0
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Q
Q
Q
T0
T
G0
G0
a. No Feedback Case
b. Feedback Case
F
F T
T =G Q0 0
T=G ( Q+F T)0
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,00 QGT =
0 ( ),T G Q F T = +
,1
0
f
TT
=
where f = G0F is the feedback factor. The net feedback is positive for
0 < f < 1, and negative for f < 0. The feedback parameter F is
Flux/T, assuming the same incoming radiation in the system.The negative sign is because increased outgoing flux means energy
loss. For example, with T = 0.2 K and Flux = 0.9 W m2, F is 4.5
W m2 K (= 0.9/0.2).
The idea now is to take fluxes observed by
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The idea now is to take fluxes observed by
satellite and produced by models forced by
observed sea surface temperatures, and seehow these fluxes change with fluctuations in
sea surface temperature. This allows us to
evaluate the feedback factor.
Remember, we are ultimately talking about the
greenhouse effect. It is generally agreed thatdoubling CO2 alone will cause about 1C warming
due to the fact that it acts as a blanket. Model
projections of greater warming absolutelydepend on positive feedbacks from water
vapor and clouds that will add to the blanket
reducing the net cooling of the climatesystem.
CCSM36
ECHAM5/MIP-OM6
FGOALS-g1.06
UKMO-HadGEM16
N 14 N 14 N 13 N 13
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-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
GFDL-CM2.1
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
6GISS-ER
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
6INM-CM3.0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
6IPSL-CM4
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
6
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
SST (K)
-6
-3
0
3
6
Flux(Wm-2)
MIROC3.2(hires)
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
SST (K)
-6
-3
0
3
6MIROC3.2(medres)
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
SST (K)
-6
-3
0
3
6
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
Flux(Wm-2)
F
lux(Wm-2)
SST (K) SST (K) SST (K) SST (K)
SST (K) SST (K) SST (K) SST (K)
N = 14 N = 14 N = 13 N = 13
N = 13 N = 19 N = 21 N = 19
N = 19 N = 19 N = 19
The fact that all models
show a negative slopecorresponding to a
positive feedback, has led
virtually all scientific
bodies including the IPCC
to declare this property tobe robust. But, what
does the data show?
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ERBE & CERES
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-6
-3
0
3
6
Flux(Wm-2)
SST (K)
N = 26
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Once one has the feedback factor, it is easy to relate
this factor to climate sensitivity via the equation
,1
0
f
TT
=
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We see that for models, the uncertainty in radiative fluxes makes it impossible to
pin down the precise sensitivity because they are so close to unstable
regeneration. This, however, is not the case for the actual climate system where
the sensitivity is about 0.5C for a doubling of CO2. From the brief SST record, wesee that fluctuations of that magnitude occur all the time.
LW+SW
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (K)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Flux/SST
(Wm-2K-1)
-10
-5
0
5
10
Feedback
factor(f)
-2
-1
0
1
2
CCSM3
ECHAM5/MIP-OM
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.1GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
MIROC3.2(hires)MIROC3.2(medres)
UKMO-HadGEM1
ERBE-CERES
Models
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What we see is that the very foundation of
the issue of global warming is wrong.
So where do we go from here?
It is hard to tell, given that to note thisconstitutes an insult to the sensibilities of
the educated class and the entire East and
West Coasts.