Constructing Safety Indicators from Child Welfare Events and Trajectories

Fred Wulczyn, Bridgette Lery

Center for State Foster Care and Adoption Data

Chapin Hall Center for Children

University of Chicago

June 28, 2007

Questions

At what stage or stages of involvement in the child welfare system does disparity originate?

Do subsequent stages aggravate or mitigate the disparity?

Policy questionDo policies interact, contributing to disproportionality,

in the name of other positive outcomes?

Definitions

DisproportionalityOne population is out of proportion with respect to a

reference population

DisparityA lack of equality: likelihood of placement, likelihood of

exit, time to exit, and exit type

Trajectories

Trajectories are strings of events in temporal sequence. Captured events in this jurisdiction are:

• UNSUB• SUB• OPEN• PLACE• DISCH• CLOSE

Study Details

Children who first came into contact with the child welfare system in 2001 or 2002 in one jurisdiction

Followed each child for two years and captured the first four events

Captured race/ethnicity and age at first contact Calculated rates of contact at each level of system involvement Followed changes in the racial mix of the caseload at various

junctures including selected common trajectories such as: SUB/OPEN SUB/OPEN/PLACE SUB/SUB/SUB

Basic Data: System Involvement by Race and Age Group

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age0

Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Age0

Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Age0

Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Contact Rate Investigation Rate Substantiation Rate

Rate per 1,000African American

White

Basic Data: System Involvement Disparity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Age 0 Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Age 0 Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Age 0 Ages1-5

Ages6-12

Ages13-17

Contact Rate Investigation Rate Substantiation Rate

AA Rate/WH Rate

Caseload Mix at Initial System Contact

44%

28%24%

29%

56%

72%76%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OPEN SUB UNSUB ANY

African American

White

Distribution of First Contacts by Type and Race

24%

34%42%

12%

35%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OPEN SUB UNSUB

African American

White

Given a Case Opening, What is Likely to Happen Next?

65%

3%

26%

3% 3%2%

24%

3% 3%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CLOSE NO_SECOND PLACE SUB UNSUB

African American

White

Given a Substantiated Report, What is Likely to Happen Next?

43% 44%

8% 6%

57%

25%

9% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NO_SECOND OPEN SUB UNSUB

African American

White

Caseload Mix After Selected Pairs of Events

46%

40%44%

24%

35%

54%

60%56%

76%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OPEN/PLACE SUB/OPEN UNSUB/OPEN SUB/SUB ANY

African American

White

Caseload Mix After Selected Triplets of Events

40%

33%

20%

38%

60%

67%

80%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SUB/OPEN/PLACE UNSUB/SUB/OPEN SUB/SUB/SUB ANY

African American

White

Summary: Caseload Mix

29%

35%38%

71%

65%62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Any First Event Any Two Events Any Three Events

African American

White

Babies vs. All: Caseload Mix at Initial Contact

44%

28%24%

29%

56%

72%76%

71%

52%

42%

30%

40%

48%

58%

70%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OPEN SUB UNSUB Any

Total African American

Total White

Babies African American

Babies White

Babies: Distribution of First Events by Type and Race

34% 36%30%

21%

33%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OPEN SUB UNSUB

African American

White

Babies: Given a Substantiated Report, What is Likely to Happen Next?

25%

61%

7% 7%

35%

46%

11%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NO_SECOND OPEN SUB UNSUB

African American

White

Summary: Caseload Mix for Babies vs. All

29%

35%38%

71%

65%62%

40%45% 47%

60%55% 53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Any First Event Any Two Events Any Three Events

Total African American

Total White

Babies African American

Babies White

Limitations

We have not taken into account the length of time between events.

We have not looked at maltreatment type.

We only studied one jurisdiction.

We have not subjected the data to multivariate models.

Case opening is not a very good proxy for whether or not services were delivered.

Conclusions

The source of disparity in this jurisdiction is primarily at the point of first contact.

African American children are more likely than white children to have a case opened at any point.

Disparity is greatest for infants.

Could the disparity in case openings suggest an effective protective process?

Implications

Given that infancy is a unique developmental stage, we need to adjust strategies for dealing with that population in developmentally appropriate ways.

We must be careful in evaluating our options for addressing disproportionality. Policies and practices narrowly aimed to reduce disparities may sabotage other, good outcomes.