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Conférence Sauvons le Climat
26 Septembre 2015
Géopolitique de l’énergie
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
World primary commercial energy consumption (Mtoe)
2 Sources : Schilling & Al. (1977), BP Statistical 2014
Nu.
Hydro
32.9%
Oil
30.1%
Coal
23.7%
Natural
Gas
4.4%
Nuclear
6.7%
Hydro
2.2 %
Renewable
s
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Mill
ion
to
ns
of
oil
equ
ival
ent
Energy vs. GDP (2012)
Source: World Bank and IFP Training
* Sub-saharan Africa excluding South Africa
3
Sub-Saharan Africa
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Denmark
Malaysia
France Germany
India
Indonesia
Iran
Italy
Japan
S. Korea
Kuwait
Qatar
Russia
Saudi Arabia Singapore
South Africa
Thailand Turkey
Ukraine
UAE
United Kingdom
United States
Norway
Switzerland
Argentina
Pakistan
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Ene
rgy
use
pe
r ca
pit
a (k
goe
)
GDP per capita (current USD)
Energy intensity trends per region
4 Source: IEA, WEO 2012
Which energy mix in 2050?
5
World reserves (Gtoe) - 2014
Source : BP Statistical Review 2014 , CEA, FP/DEE, EIA
(1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg
(2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 260 $/kg
(3) Present technology (Pressurized Water Reactor)
(4) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio
Yet to be
discovered
Including
Non-conventional
Possible
2800
Proven Proven
50 (1) 15 (2)
Proven
460 500
167
189
238
125
140
Enhanced
recovery
Liquid Hydrocarbons Including Non Conventional,
Oil Sands, Extra-heavy Oil
Natural Gas Coal & Lignite Uranium (3)
R/P = 53y. (4) R/P = 55
R/P = 113
R/P = 93 Yet to be
discovered
360
6
Oil resources (Gtoe)
*35
**50
100
Conventional Resources
Cumulative production
145
Non Recovered Oil 675
Re
cove
ry R
atio
Incr
eas
e
Rec
ove
ry
Rat
ion
(%
)
* Actual Average Ratio ** Possible Average Ratio (around 2020)
Proven reserves
238
Next discoveries
140
Enhanced recovery
60 65
Source : IFPEN
New discoveries
7
Unconventional gas basics: what it is, how and why it grew
• Natural gas (methane) produced using “new” techniques that enable production from sources previously considered un-commercial
– Horizontal wells, hydraulic fracturing at multiple intervals and acidizing
• This includes today:
– Tight gas: gas contained in low permeability rock
– Coal bed methane (CBM): gas contained and trapped in coal beds
– Shale gas: gas in low-permeability “shale”, typically source rock
• Conditions in the US that made it possible:
– Techniques available, good economics, entrepreneurs
8
US Oil & Gas production today and tomorrow
Sources : US EIA Annual Energy outlook 2013 and 2014
9
U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels supply by source, 1970-2040 (million barrels per day)
Natural gas production by source, 1990-2040 (trillion cubic feet)
Canadian oil sands Proved Reserves = 173 Gb.
Probable reserves = 1800
Gb.
Proved Reserves = 173 Gb.
Probable reserves = 1800
Gb.
Source: CERI, BPSR, Canada National Energy, BloomBerg
10
Venezuela Extra-Heavy Oil
Proved Reserves = 297 Gb.
Probable reserves = 1300
Gb.
Proved Reserves = 297 Gb.
Probable reserves = 1300
Gb.
Source: BPSR, PDVSA
BOYACA JUNIN AYACUCHO CARABOBO
BOYACA JUNIN AYACUCHO CARABOBO
EXTRA-HEAVY OIL EXTRA-HEAVY OIL
DILUEN
T
DILUEN
T
DILUEN
T
DILUEN
T
UPGRADER
UPGRADER SYNTHETIC OIL SYNTHETIC OIL
SAN JOSE REFINERY SAN JOSE REFINERY
OIL
FIELDS
OIL
FIELDS
11
Energy today, energy tomorrow
World oil supply by type in the IEA New Policies Scenario
Source: IEA, WEO 2012 12
Worldwide energy flows: 2013 Mtoe
13
Worldwide crude flows: 2011 Mtoe
14
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
Mill
ion
to
ns
OPEC Non-OPEC Former Soviet Union
Crude oil production
15
42.1%
27.6 %
51.9 %
Source: BP Statistical Review 2014
Worldwide gas flows: 2011 Mtoe
16
Worldwide coal flows: 2011 Mtoe
17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
USD
/bb
l
Crude oil price (nominal) Crude oil price (2013$)
Crude price variation
(1875) Rockefeller
Period of control by Rockefeller
(1911) Dissolution of Standard Oil
(1928) Achnacarry agreement
(1960) Foundation
of OPEC
(1973) Yom Kippur war
(1979) Iranian revolution
(1990) Iraq/Kuwait
war
Source: BP Statistical Review 2014
(2011) Arab spring
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1401
97
0M
01
19
70
M0
91
97
1M
05
19
72
M0
11
97
2M
09
19
73
M0
51
97
4M
01
19
74
M0
91
97
5M
05
19
76
M0
11
97
6M
09
19
77
M0
51
97
8M
01
19
78
M0
91
97
9M
05
19
80
M0
11
98
0M
09
19
81
M0
51
98
2M
01
19
82
M0
91
98
3M
05
19
84
M0
11
98
4M
09
19
85
M0
51
98
6M
01
19
86
M0
91
98
7M
05
19
88
M0
11
98
8M
09
19
89
M0
51
99
0M
01
19
90
M0
91
99
1M
05
19
92
M0
11
99
2M
09
19
93
M0
51
99
4M
01
19
94
M0
91
99
5M
05
19
96
M0
11
99
6M
09
19
97
M0
51
99
8M
01
19
98
M0
91
99
9M
05
20
00
M0
12
00
0M
09
20
01
M0
52
00
2M
01
20
02
M0
92
00
3M
05
20
04
M0
12
00
4M
09
20
05
M0
52
00
6M
01
20
06
M0
92
00
7M
05
20
08
M0
12
00
8M
09
20
09
M0
52
01
0M
01
20
10
M0
92
01
1M
05
20
12
M0
12
01
2M
09
20
13
M0
52
01
4M
01
20
14
M0
9
US
do
llars
pe
r b
arre
l
Crude Oil (petroleum), West Texas Intermediate 40 API, Midland Texas, US$ per barrel
Crude oil price
19
Yom Kippur war
1st OIL SHOCK
Nationalization of oil fields
OPEC domination
Iranian revolution
2nd OIL SHOCK
Iran/Iraq war
OPEC quotas
Netback contracts
3rd OIL SHOCK
Kuwait crisis
OPEC Quotas Asian crisis
Agreement Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia
Sept 11th
Iraq events
Staff attacks in S. Arabia disturbances in Iraq, Nigeria
Katrina Rita
hurricanes
OPEC Quotas
Eco crisis
Speculation
Source: IMF
Arab Springs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
pe
r b
arre
l
Crude Oil (petroleum), Dated Brent, light blend 38 API, fob U.K., US$ per barrel
102.3
Dated Brent price (monthly) – 1996-2015
Source: IMF
20.7 19.1
12.7 17.8
28.3 24.4 25 28.9
38.3
54.4 65.4
72.7
97.6
61.9
79.6
110.9 112
20
108.8
17.1
2014 oil price drop
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
US$
pe
r b
arre
l
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
-35% between mid-June and December
Source: EIA
Natural gas price evolution
Source: BP Statistical Review 2014 22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
USD
/MM
Btu
Japan cif Average German import price Union cif UK (Heren NBP Index)
US Henry Hub Canada (Alberta) OECD countries cif
Coal price evolution
Source: BP Statistical Review 2014 23
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
USD
/ to
n
Northwest Europe marker price US Central Appalachian coal spot price index
Japan coking coal import cif price Japan steam coal import cif price
O&G in arctic
• First public estimate of the petroleum resources north of the Arctic Circle: 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. (U.S. Geological Survey)
• Arctic Seabed contains up to 25% of the world's oil and natural gas reserves.
• Alaska’s offshore waters hold 26.6 billion barrels of oil that are technically recoverable, and that nearly 90 percent of it is in the Arctic.
24
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 2 - North America
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy balance in North America
Main areas for shale gas production in the US
Oil and gas pipe lines and terminals in North America
Energy supply in the USA
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 3 - South America
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy balance in South America
Energy reserves in South America
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 4 - Europe
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy balance in Europe
Energy supply to Europe
Oil and gas flows between EU and Russia
Main oil and gas pipelines in Europe
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 5 - CIS
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy balance in the CIS
Oil and gas pipelines in the CIS
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 6 - Africa
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Africa energy balance
Destinations of energy exports from Africa
Geopolitics of Energy
Part 7 - Asia
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy balance in Asia
Origin of Asian oil imports
Trade routes for the Asia energy supplies
Territorial claims by the People’s Republic of China
Geopolitics of Energy Part 8 - Middle East
Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP School Professor
Energy Balance in the Middle East
Middle East exports – by country
