Complexity and Opportunity Finding 15 January 2009

Dr. Kanes Rajah © COPYRIGHT 2009

COMPLEX CREATIVITY & OPPORTUNITY FINDING

Special workshop based on seminal ideas linking chaos theory and complexity science

to creativity, opportunity finding and innovation

Educators and Asterisms:

The new pathway for educating future

leaders.

by Professor Kanes Rajah

DirectorBusiness School

Tshwane University of TechnologyPretoria



Overview

Seeing and Understanding

How we see Change

Doing and Being

Being Change


Changes in thinking

CONGRUENCE

CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE

Time

Kn

ow

ledg

e

PLATO’S IDEAL WORLDFormalist, conceptual/idealist.

Truth/false are absolutesFocus on yes or no.

(in digital language: on/off)

MECHANISTIC WORLDDeterministic/classical world

Determined by rules and laws.Focus on processes.

(in digital language: on)

QUANTUM WORLDDetermined by

non-linear events, chaos and complexity.Focus on knowledge

(in digital language: on and off)

Llewellyn Lewis, 2007

1970s

FUTURE

PAST


Rigidity, stability and chaos

RIGIDITY STABILITY CHAOSRIGIDITY STABILITY CHAOS

Plato’s Ideal WorldMechanistic WorldQuantum World

CHAORDIC ORGANISATIONS

Real Opportunities for Adaption-Innovation

Innovators

Seek to dothings

differently

Adaptors

Seek to dothingsbetter

32 16096

CREATIVITY

45Adaptive creativity

145Innovative creativity


The world has become more complex since the 1960s

Catastrophe

Chaos

Complexity


Catastrophe theory (1/3)

Originated by the French mathematician Rene Thom in the 1960s

Studies and classifies phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances



Catastrophes are movements between different fixed point attractors

Due to their restricted nature, catastrophes can be classified based on how many control parameters are being simultaneously varied E.g. if there are two controls, then one finds the most

common type, called a "cusp" catastrophe. If, however, there are more than five controls, there is no classification



It has been applied to a number of different phenomenon stability of ships at sea and their capsizi

ng bridge collapse, with some less convincing success, the

fight-or-flight behavior of animals and prison riots


Chaos and Complexity Theory (1/2) pace of change has accelerated way beyond the

comfort zone of most people rules that guided decisions in the past, are no

longer reliable elements of change that are driving these

momentous shifts are based on the fundamental dimensions of the universe itself, namely time, space and mass

Stan Davis (Lessons from the future: Making sense of a blurred world: 2001)


Connectivity, speed and intangibles – the derivatives of time,

space and mass – are blurring the rules and redefining our

businesses and our lives.

What we see is a melt-down of all traditional boundaries

everyone and everything on-line the death of distance, a shrinking of space intangible value of all kinds like service and information is

growing explosively, reducing the importance of tangible mass

Chaos and Complexity Theory (2/2)


Linear and Non-Linear Opportunitiesfrom COMPLEX CREATIVITYLinear environment: forecasting, predicting and

extrapolating normally matches with outcomes. Adaptor type (left brain type) creativity can produce very

profitable outcomes.

Non linear environment: Linear thinking alone may not be adequate. In addition, sense making becomes important

Innovator (right brain type)behaviour becomes very relevant to facilitate more holistic, ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking where disparate pieces of information can be pieced together to create new meaning (and perceptions of new opportunity).


Linear and Non-Linear Opportunitiesfrom COMPLEX CREATIVITY

Linear Non-Linear

1970s


Linear and Non-Linear Opportunities from COMPLEX REATIVITY

Mainly incremental change Not much change in industry dynamics. Occasionally important step changes are

detected.e.g. wheel horse and cart car



Linear Non-Linear



Linear Non-LinearIdeas for innovation come from connecting disparate innovations from related and non related sectors

Recorded sound technology (Records, discs)NanotechnologyLifestyle (Several segments)Earphones



Linear Non-LinearConnecting two, three, four or five different aspects.

Homogeneous = Sticking with the same e.g. technology only,

e.g. Dyson

Heterogeneous = Using a mix, say, technology, life-style, miniaturisation

e.g. Walkman


Linear and Non-Linear Opportunities from COMPLEX REATIVITY

Incremental and radical change Dynamic change on-going Several innovations are evident

concurrently, many are high value as seen in IT, Electronics, Telecommunication, Biotechnology, Automation and Robotics etc



Linear Non-Linear


Types of Opportunities from Complex CreativityX------X


TRIAD


QUAD


PENTA


CIRCLE “Clusters” that create fieldsPositive field or Negative field

FIREWORKS BOMB

PeopleCommon purposeEuphoria or AngerEtc.


Thank you

Kanes Rajah PhD

Documents

Complexity and Opportunity Finding 15 January 2009