Understanding WMD Proliferation: Applying Complex

Adaptive Systems Theory

Understanding WMD Proliferation: Applying Complex

Adaptive Systems Theory

Nancy K. Haydennkhayde@sandia.gov

nhayden@umd.edu

December 1, 2011

Nancy K. Haydennkhayde@sandia.gov

nhayden@umd.edu

December 1, 2011

Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived. Thomas Merton

Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived. Thomas Merton

Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well-informed just to be

undecided about them.Laurence J. Pete

If a factory is torn down, but the rationality which produced it is left standing, then that rationality will

simply produce another factory. If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns

of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves…

There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.

Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

OverviewOverview Policy analysis framework

Policy questions and wicked problems Systems perspective

Complex adaptive systems (CAS) What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave? What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS? How are they measured? What kinds of analytic tools are useful?

Policy Applications Situational awareness - network analysis Predicting behaviors - agent based modeling and system

dynamics

Policy analysis framework Policy questions and wicked problems Systems perspective

Complex adaptive systems (CAS) What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave? What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS? How are they measured? What kinds of analytic tools are useful?

Policy Applications Situational awareness - network analysis Predicting behaviors - agent based modeling and system

dynamics

Analysis Questions Common to International Security Policy

Analysis Questions Common to International Security Policy

Situational Awareness Who are Key Players? What are their

intentions? Behavior Prediction What are the

“influence levers? How do we stop them

if we can’t influence them?

How can we change the outcomes?

Situational Awareness Who are Key Players? What are their

intentions? Behavior Prediction What are the

“influence levers? How do we stop them

if we can’t influence them?

How can we change the outcomes?

WMD Proliferation

Social movementsCivil conflictMilitary strategyIslamic radicalizationEnergy & EnvironmentTerrorismDemocratization and stability

Analysis Questions involve Complex

Adaptive SOCIAL Systems

Analysis Questions involve Complex

Adaptive SOCIAL SystemsPurposeful agents: leaders and followers

“Key players”Intentions

Self-organizing and adaptive: “levers of influence” and collective action

I. Structure - nodes and linkages Key organizations, relationships,

goals Origins, resources and support

II. Dynamics - transactions What are the dominant transactions

and rates over time? What are the system chokepoints

and limitations for transactions? How do structures evolve over time

and what are emergent properties? What are structural reactions to

exogenously imposed events?

Purposeful agents: leaders and followers“Key players”Intentions

Self-organizing and adaptive: “levers of influence” and collective action

I. Structure - nodes and linkages Key organizations, relationships,

goals Origins, resources and support

II. Dynamics - transactions What are the dominant transactions

and rates over time? What are the system chokepoints

and limitations for transactions? How do structures evolve over time

and what are emergent properties? What are structural reactions to

exogenously imposed events?

WMD proliferation

Democratic stabilitySocial movementsCivil conflictMilitary strategyDomestic securityIslamic radicalizationEnergy and EnvironmentTerrorismEconomic prosperity

A wicked problem is one for which each attempt to create a solution changes the understanding of the problem. Wicked problems cannot be solved in a traditional linear fashion, because the problem definition

evolves as new possible solutions are considered and/or implemented.

Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems” for

Policy Analysts

Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems” for

Policy Analysts

Characteristics of Wicked ProblemsCharacteristics of Wicked Problems

1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem” …you don’t understand it till you solve it.

2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to the

problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because

there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.

6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.

7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem

can be explained in numerous ways. 9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s

resolution.10. The planner has no right to be wrong.

1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem” …you don’t understand it till you solve it.

2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to the

problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because

there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.

6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.

7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem

can be explained in numerous ways. 9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s

resolution.10. The planner has no right to be wrong.

Definitions IDefinitions ISystem: an internally organized whole where elements are so

intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the

System: an internally organized whole where elements are so intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the

Complex system : one whose elements may also be regarded as systems or subsystems.

Structure: implies not only the position of elements in space but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm, the law of mutation of a process. It is the law or set of laws that determine a system's composition and functioning, its properties and stability. Any breakdown in structure, any deformation of an organ leads to a distortion of the function.

Function organizes structure.Structure determines function

whole.

Str

uctu

ral C

ompl

exity

Randomness0 1

Definitions II Structure: Simple, Complex,

Random

Definitions II Structure: Simple, Complex,

Random

Innovation Surprise

Unpredictable

Ordered

Random

Complex

Structure and Dynamics Related to State of System

Structure and Dynamics Related to State of System

Closed or OpenStatic or Dynamic

Equilibrium or Disequilibrium

Ordered, Complex, Chaos and/or Random

Closed or OpenStatic or Dynamic

Equilibrium or Disequilibrium

Ordered, Complex, Chaos and/or Random

2. States change over time through predictable

mechanisms…

2. States change over time through predictable

mechanisms…

…affecting structural form, function, and behaviors.

1. Systems in different states should be analyzed and

managed differently

1. Systems in different states should be analyzed and

managed differently

Two Key Points Two Key Points

Policy Analysis Example 1Policy Analysis Example 1

OSD: How can we detect adversary technological and/or procedural innovation?

Approach: Network analysis

OSD: How can we detect adversary technological and/or procedural innovation?

Approach: Network analysis

Network Structures Enable Different Types of Behaviors and

Outcomes

Network Structures Enable Different Types of Behaviors and

Outcomes

Giant StarHigh School Friendships

High School Dating Web SitesYeast Proteins

TB Contagion

Small Worlds

Cliques

Books on Politics

Weak Links

Freshwater Food Web

Ring

Connected Ring

Trees

Structural components Connectivity Centrality, betweeness Degree Clustering Path length

Dynamic components Resilience Transmissivity Directionality Reciprocity…

Structural components Connectivity Centrality, betweeness Degree Clustering Path length

Dynamic components Resilience Transmissivity Directionality Reciprocity…

Network MetricsNetwork Metrics

System Behavior•Technical innovation•WMD proliferation•Disease propagation•Ideological diffusion•Resource production•Violence propagation

Change Mechanisms Vary Relative to Structure and

State Timing, Intentionality, Discovery

Change Mechanisms Vary Relative to Structure and

State Timing, Intentionality, Discovery

Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)

Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (Gelman’s three levels)

1. Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations

2. Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with the life of another species

3. Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).

Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)

Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)

Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (Gelman’s three levels)

1. Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations

2. Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with the life of another species

3. Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).

Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)

Network StructuresNetwork StructuresState System State System

Predict Adaptive Adversary Behaviors and Most Effective Policy

OSD Solution: Use network metrics to anticipate and disrupt potential innovation

paths

OSD Solution: Use network metrics to anticipate and disrupt potential innovation

paths

Policy StrategiesPolicy Strategies

Policy Analysis Example 2: IC efforts to Prevent Terrorism

Policy Analysis Example 2: IC efforts to Prevent Terrorism

The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it

Develop Understanding

Logistics/Infrastructure

Social/psychological

Simulation

Gaming, Statistics, Modeling

MOADB

indications& warnings

increasehope

warn first respondersmanipulate - deceive -

control - dissuade - deter - destroy

enhancedcollection

scenario drivenhypothesis

Policy decisions

Reality

mitigate

Terrorism: It’s About People

Terrorism: It’s About People

Assumptions•Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue

•Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives

•Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..)

•Fundamental religious movements will continue (?) to foster rebellion against modernism

Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations

Solution Approach:Agent Based ModelingSimple rules of interaction

High loyalty = cooperation , collaborationLow Loyalty = competition, attack

Policy Example 3: Predicting Collective

Action/Reactions

Policy Example 3: Predicting Collective

Action/Reactions

What will adversary military responses be to US counter-proliferation policy?

How do domestic social factors shape adversary military policies for WMD?

What are the interdependencies between the two questions?

What will adversary military responses be to US counter-proliferation policy?

How do domestic social factors shape adversary military policies for WMD?

What are the interdependencies between the two questions?

Solution Approach: System Dynamics

Modeling System Dynamics

Modeling System Dynamics

Structure: defined by components and composition Agent Behavior: involves interaction rules

cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; …. Aggregate Behavior: involves input flows, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have

functional as well as structural relationships to each other.

Structure: defined by components and composition Agent Behavior: involves interaction rules

cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; …. Aggregate Behavior: involves input flows, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have

functional as well as structural relationships to each other.

Causal Loop Diagram with Feedback

System Dynamics modeling yields non-intuitive insights into relationships between stocks, flows, and agent interactions.

DHS problem: Understanding Islamic

Radicalization

DHS problem: Understanding Islamic

RadicalizationExplore Social Movement Theory in

context of Islamic countriesExplanatory power or origins and

influencesPredictive power of policy outcomesIndications and warnings

Explore Social Movement Theory in context of Islamic countriesExplanatory power or origins and

influencesPredictive power of policy outcomesIndications and warnings

Arab SpringArab Spring

Democracy: What new political opportunity structures have opened up (closed) for movements and their participants and how will new players view WMD policies of Middle East?

Economic restructuring: What are new pathways for generating and mobilizing resources to redress social/economic grievances and how will these impact military/security budgets?

Democracy: What new political opportunity structures have opened up (closed) for movements and their participants and how will new players view WMD policies of Middle East?

Economic restructuring: What are new pathways for generating and mobilizing resources to redress social/economic grievances and how will these impact military/security budgets?

SMO Membership

~

generate well being2

ISN activism

~

smo activisim

SMO assets

public well being

potential SMO supporters

~

sympathizing

joining

~

international partners

SMO provision of social services

fundraising

SERVICES PER ASSET

average resources per person

SMO PROVIDED SS

sympathizers per social service

generate well being

~

well being per SMO service

~

conversion potential to joiners

resources per partner

SMO PROVIDED SS

GNP

public well being

satisfied people per well being

leaving

~

STATE PROVIDED SS 1

SMO PROVIDED SOCIAL SERVICES

SUBMODULE A : Resource Mobilization and Public Well-being

SUBMODULE B: Resource Mobilization and Public Well-being

state strength

~

generate well being2

state provision of social services

military spending

~

state repression

public well being

ISN activism

~

~

SMO provision of social services

state assets

generate money

smo activisim

generate well being

well being per state social service

~

~

STATE PROVIDED SS

state services per asset

corruption

freedom index tax collection

GNP

public well being

military spending rate

tax rates

tax enforcement

~corruption

STATE PROVIDED SS 1

SMO PROVIDED SOCIAL SERVICES

0

500

1000

1000

1

8

15

2

1.0

5.0

9.0

8.0

1

3

5

2

0

50

100

0

U

0.0900

0.0000 1.0000

~

well being per SMO service

ISN activism

well being per state social service

state strength

0.0900

0.0000 1.0000

~

0.0000

0.0000 1.0000

~

1

1 100

~

0.6100

0.0000 1.0000

~

1.000

1.000 100.000

~

10

60

100

10

Model draws on concets in TIARA report SAND 0009-0325. Looks at Resource Mobilization related to economy, social services provided, and SMO versus state as providers. Assumes no political opportunity structure for contenders within state as alternative providers

Country Parametersparameters conditions

policy Levers

Model Initialization

Theoretical Assumptions

2:27 AM Thu, Dec 1, 2011

Relative contributions to public well being: Tax rate = 0.1

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1:

1:

2:

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3:

100

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101

0

10

20

1: public well being 2: SMO PROVIDED SS 3: STATE PROVIDED SS

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

2:29 AM Thu, Dec 1, 2011

Relative contributions to public well being: Tax rate = 0.5

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1: public well being 2: SMO PROVIDED SS 3: STATE PROVIDED SS

1

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3

Putting it all together: Frame the Problem

Putting it all together: Frame the Problem

Foreca

st

Question EpistemologyInformation

Density/unit time

System Complexity

Describ

e

Explore

Interpre

t

Infer

Suggest

Analysis approachdepends on what question

is being asked, in what timeframe

Predict

ObservationTable Top Exercises

Systems Thinking and National Security

Systems Thinking and National Security

Foreca

st

Question Epistemology

Information

Density/unit time

System Complexity

Describ

eExp

lore

Interpre

tInfer

Predict

Law Enforcement

Explain

Case StudiesField Surveys

Statistical AnalysisSocial Network

Analysis

Academic emphasisRemote Sensing

Evidentiary Reasoning

Red TeamingGaming

Network Analysis

Modeling & Simulation

Intelligence/security Analysts

SummarySummaryComplex adaptive systems framework

provides powerful tool for ISEP analysis:CAS Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictableCo-exist with other kinds of system statesDevelop structure to serve function

Can be understood by observing structureCan be shaped by their structure and transactionsEmergent behavior can be anticipated/measured

using structural and dynamic metrics

Create new CAS

Complex adaptive systems framework provides powerful tool for ISEP analysis:CAS Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictableCo-exist with other kinds of system statesDevelop structure to serve function

Can be understood by observing structureCan be shaped by their structure and transactionsEmergent behavior can be anticipated/measured

using structural and dynamic metrics

Create new CAS