Distributed Networked ForcesDistributed Networked Forcesoperating in

Complex Adaptive Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsEnvironments

CDR Gregory Glaros, USNOffice of the Secretary of DefenseOffice of Force Transformation

gregory.glaros@osd.mil

Age Generation Weapons Energy

Nomadic Manual Bare-Handed Human

Agrarian Tribal Cold Animal

National Attrition Chemical Mechanical

Industrial Maneuver Hot Thermal

Information Global Information Information

ƒ (Warriors, Wpn/Plt, Sensors, C2, Networks)

Quantifying Information age warfare …fight first for information superiority

ƒƒ((NetworksNetworks,, Sensors,Sensors, Wpn/Plt,Wpn/Plt, CC22,, WarriorWarrior))

Distributed Networked ForceDistributed Networked Force

==

Total Combat System approach generating combat capabilitiesTotal Combat System approach generating combat capabilities

Action(s)/hr/nmAction(s)/hr/nm22 Fidelity/persistenceFidelity/persistence Mass flow/transfer rateMass flow/transfer rate

DensityDensity PervasivenessPervasiveness TransactionTransaction

Strike / OffenseStrike / Offense Shield / DefenseShield / Defense Basing / EndurementBasing / Endurement

Current MPF Employment Times …path dependency of rapid employment and deployment matter

Speed of response sets and determines the path dependency of initial conditions

6

7

0 2 4 8 10 12 14 16 18

ShipsTransit Offload

0Survey Liaison Recon Party

10

Offload Preparation Party

Advance Party

Deploy

Deploy

Deploy

Deploy

Prepare Port

PrepareCargo

17

Main Body

Arrival and Assembly Operations

FullyOperational

32

1

Tactical speed – Speed is Life Tactical speed – Speed is Life (Survivability and Stability)– Rapid redistribution & recombination / Geographic displacement / Reaction– Agility / Angles / Energy state / Maneuverability (Turning a hit into a near miss)– Speed directly proportional to area covered (quadratic increase in area displaced speed)

Operational time – Speed to ManeuverOperational time – Speed to Maneuver (Transaction & Transfer Rates)– Employ – On-load - reconfigure time (rapid mission focus change out)– Deploy – Off- load - rapid insertion of total combat power in parallel – Sustain – Transit - revisit / reload time (unit-to-unit transfer)– Command – From any node in the Network

Strategic response – Speed of Response Strategic response – Speed of Response (Mobility & Constancy of effort)– Scope - Total force approach (ramp up & response time)– Pace - sustained tempo & continuous Endurement (Endurance & Sustainment)– Intensity – effects of mass without massing forces (reallocation of capabilities)– Every 10 knot increase in speed equates to a 1000 NM increase in range in 96 hours

Speed of response sets and determines the path dependency of initial conditions

Future Employment & Deployment Times …Cost of speed / Value of time

First to Fight?First to Fight?

LHALHA

LHDLHD

LPD 4LPD 4

LPD 17LPD 17

LSD 36LSD 36

LSD 41LSD 41

LSD 49LSD 49

TSV (1)TSV (1)

TSV (2)TSV (2)

Ship

2424

2222

2222

2222

2222

2222

2222

4545

5555

Max Speed

(knots)

75,000,00075,000,000

app 75,000,000app 75,000,000

app 22,500,000app 22,500,000

est 20,000,000est 20,000,000

20,000,00020,000,000

20,000,00020,000,000

20,000,00020,000,000

est 2,000,000est 2,000,000

est 2,800,000est 2,800,000

Annual operating cost(FY96 VAMOSC)

25.925.9

26.6/3626.6/36

23/3623/36

2323

2020

21/3621/36

21/3621/36

11.111.1

12.512.5

Draft/ballasted

(ft)

893 / 964893 / 964

1893 / 11471893 / 1147

706 / 422706 / 422

699 / 396699 / 396

336 / 323336 / 323

402 / 313402 / 313

504 / 352504 / 352

500 / 20500 / 20

900 / 20900 / 20

Landing party/crew

0.930.93

1.651.65

1.671.67

1.771.77

1.041.04

1.281.28

1.431.43

2525

4545

Ratio

10,000 @ 2010,000 @ 20

9,500 @ 189,500 @ 18

14,800 @ 1214,800 @ 12

8,000 @ 188,000 @ 18

8,000 @ 188,000 @ 18

3,200 @ 343,200 @ 34

3,600 @ 383,600 @ 38

Range(NM)

28,233/39,96728,233/39,967

28,233/40,53228,233/40,532

9,201/16,9149,201/16,914

25,30025,300

8,600/13,7008,600/13,700

11,125/15,72611,125/15,726

11,547/16,40011,547/16,400

900/1400900/1400

1200/26001200/2600

Displacement(tons)

11,73411,734

12,29912,299

7,7137,713

5,1005,100

4,6014,601

4,8524,852

500500

1,4001,400

Dead wt.(tons)

11

22

33

44

55

66

Notes

Notes

1 15 years of life at a cost of nearly $1.0 billion per SLEP

2 LHD 1-7 cost based on average for class, LHD-8 estimated at $1.5B

3 currently 30% over budget and 10 months behind schedule

4 to be decommissioned

5 INCAT 046, 91 Meter, allows for 10% fuel reserve

6 INCAT 120 Military Configuration, allows for 10% fuel reserve

Information compiled from Janes 2000-2001 Fighting Ships, Carderock Division, Naval Institute’s Combat Fleets of the World, INCAT, and FAS (Federation of American Scientists)

see notesee note

601 601

235-419235-419

802802

see notesee note

211211

170170

5050

6565

Cost

($M)

Quarter Power Scaling laws & transport systemsQuarter Power Scaling laws & transport systems

Space filling – fractal patternSpace filling – fractal pattern– Necessary for a network to supply energy to the organism

Size invarianceSize invariance– Final branch of the network must be same size in every organism

Minimized energy requiredMinimized energy required– Distribution of energy must be minimized (not optimized)

Creation of a skewed distributionCreation of a skewed distribution– Impedance matching – resistance to flow equal to the flow

Universal Scaling Laws …qualitative rules of evolution

• What must Distributed Networked Forces give the Nation?What must Distributed Networked Forces give the Nation?• A difference in kind, orders of magnitude improvement in combat

power and a broadened base of available capabilities

• What must Distributed Networked Forces give the What must Distributed Networked Forces give the

Combatant Commanders?Combatant Commanders?• Variance in options through recombination of fractal, scale invariant

assets operating as a networked, distributed Joint combat force

•What must Distributed Networked Forces give the Service?What must Distributed Networked Forces give the Service?• A Total Combat Systems approach for evaluating service’s

contribution to Joint Warfighting

Organizing Principals for Organizing Principals for Distributed Networked ForcesDistributed Networked Forces

…Combat power generated by Information

• Diversity of elementsDiversity of elements • Provide access to, sustainment in, and utilization of the complex adaptive environments (littorals)

• Numbers of elements and collective behaviorNumbers of elements and collective behavior • Nonlinear tipping points ensure survival and can only be achieved in networked societies / forces

by relatively high numbers • Rapid recombination of resources taking advantage of speed, agility, armor, stealth & signal-to-noise ratio

aberrations

• Scale invarianceScale invariance • Observe, understand & influence behaviors at the scale that events occur

• Connection topologies and connection strengthsConnection topologies and connection strengths • indirect connections, rates and degrees of response matter

Distributed Networked Forces: Distributed Networked Forces: CharacteristicsCharacteristics for for Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsComplex Adaptive Environments

…It’s not about a boat or any one technology

Matching complexity - Requisite varietyMatching complexity - Requisite variety – Capabilities must be at the same level or more complex and whose methods are suited or

match the complexity of the environment Long term competitive advantage by being complex and being able to compete at the appropriate

scale

ReconfigurableReconfigurable – Adaptability through modular design & combinatorial employment at high transaction rates

High payload fractions / dynamic lift / carbon fiber/ Kevlar construction

Combat system reachCombat system reach – Understanding the relationships between and the employment of organic near field sensors,

ubiquitous network infrastructure, weapons & platform design with C2 and warrior preparation Information fusion, semantic, and tacit understandingInformation fusion, semantic, and tacit understanding – –

– In and at the field of regard or the source – relocate complexity

Distributed Networked Forces: Distributed Networked Forces: OperatingOperating in in Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsComplex Adaptive Environments

…It’s not about a boat or any one technology

Recombination – Recombination – – Ability to aggregate, distribute or interchange physical, informational or logical elements and connections.

Dispersion – Dispersion – – Avoiding spatial, informational, or logical centers of gravity thereby confounding adversary C2 and scouting

resources Mobility –Mobility –

– Sufficient speed for rapid relocation of elements and reconfiguration of elemental collectives (physical or logical means)

Stealth –Stealth –– Greater numbers of elements provide physically smaller elements and stealthier signatures (hide among the clutter)

Proximity –Proximity –– Uncouples physical component’s direct proximity to threat (effects of mass without the massing of forces or

elements) Flexibility –Flexibility –

– Fluid system substructures with wide range of modular interoperability options (economics of modularity) Persistence –Persistence –

– Ability to operate w/o disruption of cyclic logistics and operations

Distributed Networked Forces: Distributed Networked Forces: Design PrinciplesDesign Principles for for Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsComplex Adaptive Environments

…It’s not about a boat or any one technology

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

Capital Ships Escorts Littoral Vessels Auxiliaries

COMBAT POWER

HIT

S R

EQ

FO

R M

ISS

ION

KIL

L

TACTICAL INSTABILITY

NUMBERS CONSTANT OR DECREASING

W/COMBAT POWER

NUMBERS INCREASING

W/COMBAT POWER

PERSONNEL SUBMARINES MAJOR SURFACE SHIPS (amphibs not included)

China Navy* 260,000 64 56

JMSDF 44,000 16 55

Royal Navy 44,000 15 35

Australian Navy 14,000 4 11

Taiwan (ROC) 38,000 4 37

India 53,000 16 26

U.S. Pacific Flt 132,000 38 58

* Includes 750 Aircraft. CNA, May 2000

Preserving options and variance with the recombination of assets

Distributed Networked Forces: Distributed Networked Forces: Numbers Count inNumbers Count in Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsComplex Adaptive Environments

…It’s not about a boat or any one technology

Preserve FlexibilityPreserve Flexibility

Hedge against ContingenciesHedge against Contingencies

Mitigate VolatilityMitigate Volatility

All three seek to manage UNCERTAINTYAll three seek to manage UNCERTAINTY

Real Options AnalysisReal Options Analysis

Assure Access–Match complexitySpeed of Response–Effects of Mass

Speed of command-Asset efficiencyShared awareness-Speed of decision

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 20 40 60 80

Time (hours)

Nu

mb

er o

f T

rack

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Time

Spe

ed (k

ts)

commercial

military

?

Total Force Assets

Tim

e to

Acc

om

pli

sh M

issi

on

CWC

FORCEnet

Gains a function of:• Organization relationships• Aligned Processes• Collaboration• Human – System interface• Warrior education

Accomplish mission at same speed with

fewer assets

Accomplish mission faster with

same assets

Distributed Networked Forces: Distributed Networked Forces: CapabilitiesCapabilities for for Complex Adaptive EnvironmentsComplex Adaptive Environments

•Dynamic lift generates low-drag

•Carbon/Kevlar Fiber composites • reduces structural weight

Vessel Length (ft)

Speed (KT)

Total Displ. (MT)

Dead Wt (MT)

Payload (MT)

Fuel Load (MT)

Draft (M)Range (NM)

165 68-83 464 250 145 69 1.37 1000

Scales to…640 70 16000 7130 5000 3870 3.16 6000640 70 16000 7130 3200 5670 3.16 8700

Endurance/Sustainment

Aeronautical design principles leveraging Archimedes’ advantages

Achieving High Payload FractionsAchieving High Payload Fractions …Deploying Distributed Networked Forces to complex adaptive environments

Power EstimationPower Estimation …Dynamic lift producing low drag

Craft Weight : 1/2

Fuel / Payload : 1/2

Aeronautical design principles leveraging Archimedes’ advantages

Payload Fraction MattersPayload Fraction Matters …Deploying Distributed Networked Forces to complex adaptive environments

Standards, protocols and interfacesStandards, protocols and interfaces

– Don’t limit design to mere modular construction

Mission adaptability & reconfigurationMission adaptability & reconfiguration

– Family of chassis across the scale of employment

Recombination of AssetsRecombination of Assets– Creating numerous nodes within an existing network that supports the burgeoning

trend of demand network logistics & just in time delivery

Providing a spectrum of options for the Combatant CommandersProviding a spectrum of options for the Combatant Commanders

Economics of ModularityEconomics of Modularity

Compartment Center vs. Floodable Length

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Compartment Center (ft)

Flo

od

ab

le L

en

gth

(ft

)

Tow Equipment Room

Cleats

Habitability Spaces

Boat Deck

30 mm Gun

51-cell SA/SS

Auxiliary Machinery Room

Main Engine Room

Potable Water

Decoy Launcher

Inport/Emergency Generator

4-Cell Harpoon/SLAM

Refueling Probe

Fuel Tanks

Decoy Launcher

Line Locker

Central Control Station

Electronics Space

30 mm Gun

Chain Locker

Line Locker

Accelerations at the Bridge

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Wave/Ship Length

Acc

eler

atio

n (

g's

)

Longitudinal Weight Distribution

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

0 8 16 24 32 40 47 55 63 71 79 87 95 103

111

119

126

134

142

150

158

Length from Bow (ft)

Weight (LT)

Righting Arm vs. Heel Angle

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Heel Angle (degrees)

Rig

hti

ng

Arm

(ft

)

Scalar invariance to ModularityScalar invariance to Modularity …from modular missions to recombination of assets

DOMINANT MANEUVERDOMINANT MANEUVER

• Eliminate the need for seaport infrastructureEliminate the need for seaport infrastructure•Shallow daft, large numbers, small size, high speeds

• Modular mission payloadsModular mission payloads•Reconfigurable “chassis” maintains high transaction rates •Out-adapt / Lock-out adversaries•Geographic dispersal and unit to unit transfers

• Blur strategic, operational, and tactical domainsBlur strategic, operational, and tactical domains• Merging combatant, logistics, and intelligence functions

Altering the Force Projection and Sustainment Equation

• Tactically Survivable:Tactically Survivable: Agile maneuverability…speed / angles

- Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent multi-dimensional stealth, & networked defense

• Operationally Feasible:Operationally Feasible: Modular missions…rapid reconfiguration

- Electronic keel and support service standards & protocols, Mission-oriented mobility systems, reconfigurable payloads

• Strategically Viable:Strategically Viable: Adaptable mobility…speed of response

- High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo / reduce foot print ashore

Shallow Draft / High-Speed SealiftShallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift6000-8700 nm,6000-8700 nm, 60-100 knots, 60-100 knots, 5000 ton payload5000 ton payload

Evolutionary economicsEvolutionary economics

SeamlessnessSeamlessness– Not just Joint interoperability but n2n transactions

DiversityDiversity– Numerous options / family of capabilities / scale invariance

Continuous changeContinuous change– Adapting to the fitness landscape– Continuous learning

Persistent innovative stepsPersistent innovative steps– Small jumps and big bets– Continuous experimentation with incessant feedback

Transformational patterns …holistic approach

Performance demand at the high end of the

market

Performance demanded at the low end of

the market

Pro

du

ct P

erfo

rman

ce

Time

Progress due to

sustaining

technologies

Disruptive technological

innovation Progress due to

sustaining

technologies

Disruptive TechnologiesDisruptive Technologies …small jumps and big bets