23
COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma NEUTRAL HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters Too big to grow While Aurobindo’s (ARBP) Sandoz acquisition may not lead to a disaster like peers (Teva, Endo, Hikma and Lupin), it could considerably hamper the growth in the medium term. Our analysis of Sandoz’s large oral and derma portfolio suggests that it is likely to face severe competition in the next 2-3 years. The pending 50+ ANDAs and a track record of only four to five yearly launches can barely support the impending fall. Expect earnings growth post FY20 to be a big challenge for ARBP, as earnings contribution from Sandoz portfolio to go down from Rs 10/sh in FY20 to Rs 2/sh in FY23E. At CMP, ARBP is trading at 14.6x FY20E, at par with 10 year historical average. Downgrade the stock to Neutral with a TP of Rs 840 (15x Sep’20E EPS). To become the 2nd largest generic co. in the US: With Sandoz’s oral+derma portfolio acquisition, ARBP will dominate the US generics market with 8% Rx share. In terms of sales, ARBP’s US revenues should scale up to US$ 2.1bn in FY20 from US$ 1.1bn now. The portfolio will have 800+ products incl. ~190 pending ANDAs. Sandoz’s existing portfolio to see a sharp fall: At present, Sandoz is generating US$ 1.2bn annually from this portfolio while the anchor product, Levo-T, and derma portfolio are contributing 40-45%. We expect enough competition in Levo-T and derma products for the sales to halve over the next 3-4 years. Further, the authorized generic products like Beyaz and Exelon patch are expected to be more genericised. Revenues from Sandoz’s portfolio to fall to US$ 750mn by FY21E. Pipeline has ‘me-too’ products: We believe Sandoz has 50+ pending ANDAs in the US. However, most of these products will have fairly competitive landscape. It will not be able to support the fall in Sandoz’s portfolio. Moreover, over the last 4-5 years, Sandoz has received only 3 to 5 new approvals every year, which is very low. ARBP’s own pipeline is stronger: ARBP has 145 pending ANDAs with the US FDA, with 40+ injectable products. It is also preparing to file inhalers, depo- injectables and transdermals (launches in FY22/23). However, with potential US$ 2bn+ US revenues which could lose US$ 200-250mn annually due to mid single digit price erosion and loss of market share, growth will remain elusive for some years, post Sandoz acquisition. Recent generic acquisition history is not encouraging: Be it Teva-Allergan, Endo-Par, Hikma+Roxane or Lupin+Gavis, none of these stocks has performed post acquisition, for over three years. Endo has lost 93% of its market value. Share prices of Teva, Hikma and Lupin have also declined 67%, 32% and 49% respectively. Expensive acquisition is one of the reasons for fall. Earnings improvement due to Sandoz is fully priced: The acquisition will add ~Rs 10/EPS in FY20. But we believe, it is already priced in as the stock has run up 15-20% after the announcement and is trading 14.6x FY20E EPS (at par with 10 year average). With expected scale up in R&D for complex generics/biosimilars coupled with the fall in Sandoz profits, EPS growth to be muted post FY20E. ROCs to fall below 15%. Financial Summary Year (Rs bn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 165.00 184.24 255.74 265.38 EBITDA 37.89 39.06 57.54 59.71 APAT 24.23 23.82 32.61 33.06 EPS (Rs) 41.4 40.6 55.7 56.4 P/E (x) 19.6 20.0 14.6 14.4 RoC (%) 17.3 14.4 15.2 12.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research # Consolidated INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 30 Nov 2018) Rs 811 Target Price Rs 840 Nifty 10,877 Sensex 36,194 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ARBP IN No. of Shares (mn) 586 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 475/6,810 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,475 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 827/527 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 13.7 45.7 17.0 Relative (%) 20.1 43.3 7.8 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 51.9 FIs & Local MFs 15.1 FPIs 19.1 Public & Others 13.9 Source : BSE Amey Chalke [email protected] +91-22-6171-7321 Eshan Desai [email protected] +91-22-6639-2476

COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

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Page 1: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018

Aurobindo Pharma NEUTRAL

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Too big to growWhile Aurobindo’s (ARBP) Sandoz acquisition may not lead to a disaster like peers (Teva, Endo, Hikma and Lupin), it could considerably hamper the growth in the medium term. Our analysis of Sandoz’s large oral and derma portfolio suggests that it is likely to face severe competition in the next 2-3 years. The pending 50+ ANDAs and a track record of only four to five yearly launches can barely support the impending fall. Expect earnings growth post FY20 to be a big challenge for ARBP, as earnings contribution from Sandoz portfolio to go down from Rs 10/sh in FY20 to Rs 2/sh in FY23E. At CMP, ARBP is trading at 14.6x FY20E, at par with 10 year historical average. Downgrade the stock to Neutral with a TP of Rs 840 (15x Sep’20E EPS).

To become the 2nd largest generic co. in the US: With Sandoz’s oral+derma portfolio acquisition, ARBP will dominate the US generics market with 8% Rx share. In terms of sales, ARBP’s US revenues should scale up to US$ 2.1bn in FY20 from US$ 1.1bn now. The portfolio will have 800+ products incl. ~190 pending ANDAs.

Sandoz’s existing portfolio to see a sharp fall: At present, Sandoz is generating US$ 1.2bn annually from this portfolio while the anchor product, Levo-T, and derma portfolio are contributing 40-45%. We expect enough competition in Levo-T and derma products for the sales to halve over the next 3-4 years. Further, the authorized generic products like Beyaz and Exelon patch are expected to be more genericised. Revenues from Sandoz’s portfolio to fall to US$ 750mn by FY21E.

Pipeline has ‘me-too’ products: We believe Sandoz has 50+ pending ANDAs in the US. However, most of these products will have fairly competitive landscape. It will not be able to support the fall in Sandoz’s portfolio.

Moreover, over the last 4-5 years, Sandoz has received only 3 to 5 new approvals every year, which is very low.

ARBP’s own pipeline is stronger: ARBP has 145 pending ANDAs with the US FDA, with 40+ injectable products. It is also preparing to file inhalers, depo-injectables and transdermals (launches in FY22/23). However, with potential US$ 2bn+ US revenues which could lose US$ 200-250mn annually due to mid single digit price erosion and loss of market share, growth will remain elusive for some years, post Sandoz acquisition.

Recent generic acquisition history is not encouraging: Be it Teva-Allergan, Endo-Par, Hikma+Roxane or Lupin+Gavis, none of these stocks has performed post acquisition, for over three years. Endo has lost 93% of its market value. Share prices of Teva, Hikma and Lupin have also declined 67%, 32% and 49% respectively. Expensive acquisition is one of the reasons for fall.

Earnings improvement due to Sandoz is fully priced: The acquisition will add ~Rs 10/EPS in FY20. But we believe, it is already priced in as the stock has run up 15-20% after the announcement and is trading 14.6x FY20E EPS (at par with 10 year average). With expected scale up in R&D for complex generics/biosimilars coupled with the fall in Sandoz profits, EPS growth to be muted post FY20E. ROCs to fall below 15%.

Financial Summary Year (Rs bn) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 165.00 184.24 255.74 265.38 EBITDA 37.89 39.06 57.54 59.71 APAT 24.23 23.82 32.61 33.06 EPS (Rs) 41.4 40.6 55.7 56.4 P/E (x) 19.6 20.0 14.6 14.4 RoC (%) 17.3 14.4 15.2 12.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research # Consolidated

INDUSTRY PHARMA

CMP (as on 30 Nov 2018) Rs 811

Target Price Rs 840 Nifty 10,877

Sensex 36,194

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg ARBP IN

No. of Shares (mn) 586

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 475/6,810

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,475

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 827/527

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 13.7 45.7 17.0

Relative (%) 20.1 43.3 7.8

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 51.9

FIs & Local MFs 15.1

FPIs 19.1

Public & Others 13.9 Source : BSE

Amey Chalke [email protected] +91-22-6171-7321

Eshan Desai [email protected] +91-22-6639-2476

Page 2: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 2

Sandoz Acquisition: Gaining Scale

Post the Sandoz Acquisition, ARBP to become the 2nd largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP will spend US$ 900mn to acquire Sandoz’s Oral solids and derma portfolio. ARBP is also liable to pay additional US$ 100mn as milestone payments.

At present, Sandoz has filed 300 ANDAs in oral and derma category in the US. We believe approximately 250 of them are approved, while 50 are pending. This addition will take ARBP’s total ANDA filings in the US to 810 from 510 now, and pending ANDA list to expand to 195 from 145, largest among Indian peers.

To become the 2nd largest company by generic Rx Derma portfolio is also the 2nd largest among peers

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

ANDA portfolio to become fatter Gaining scale but losing on organic growth

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

0.77 0.94 1.02 1.15 1.23 1.29 1.34

0.85 0.75

23 8 13 6

74

(2)

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Aurobindo (US$ bn) Sandoz (US$ bn)%YoY growth

To become the 2nd largest generic company in the US; also to have the 2nd largest derma portfolio by gross value Post acquisition, ARBP will have 810 product filings in the US including 195 pending ANDAs We model 6% revenue CAGR for ABBP (ex-Sandoz) over the next two years Sandoz revenues to decline 10-12% YoY in FY21E, led by expected competition in key products

14.3

8.8 6.4 5.7 5.5

4.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7

Teva

Auro

+San

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Myl

an

Lupi

n

Auro

bind

o

Sand

oz

Amne

al

Zydu

s

Apot

ex

Acco

rd Par

Cipl

a

Rx Market Share (%)1.4

0.8 0.80.6 0.6

Vale

ant

Sand

oz

Perr

igo

Taro

Gal

derm

a

Gross sales (US$ bn)

510

145

810

195

No of ANDA filed No of ANDAs pending

Aurobindo Aurobindo+Sandoz

Page 3: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 3

Sandoz’s existing portfolio to see a sharp fall Sandoz’s Top products (US$ mn)

Product Current MS (%) LY MS (%) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Comment

Oral Solids Generics Levo-T (Alara product) 18.7 19.8 223 179 100 75 Expect 2 large players by FY21. Generic Emend 30.6 83.0 34 34 10 5 To be a crowded market by FY21. Generic Prevalite 51.3 54.6 29 29 14 10 Zydus entered in 2018. Fougera Products

Clindamycin (Topical gel) 60.1 64.7 59 59 29 20 Expect at least 2 product approvals Tacrolimus (Ointment) 13.2 8.2 54 54 32 16 To see number of players by FY21.

Betamethasone (cream) 44 44 44 44 Not so stringent trials still remained 2-3 player market since 1980's

Upsher-Smith (KCL franchise)

KCL M20 39.3 43.4 50 50 25 13 KCL to become competitive in 2 years KCL 37.6 33.6 24 24 12 9 Authorised Generics

Vivelle-Dot 29.1 23.9 83 83 70 55 No patents left. Mylan only other generic player since 2014.

Adderall 9.6 7.6 69 69 69 69 Chlorpromazine 36.2 34.5 45 35 25 17 Amneal recently entered. Beyaz 2.0 22.0 43 13 4 4 Lupin recently entered. Exelon patch 35.0 33.2 43 34 13 9 Could see two players in one year. Carbamazepine (ER Tab) 31.3 34.9 29 29 14 10 Top 14 products (US$ mn) 830 735 463 357 Other products (US$ mn) 370 326 280 247 Sales from New products (FY19-21) 60 108 146

Total Revenues (US$ mn) 1,200 1,121 851 750 Source: Bloomberg, Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Sandoz’s top 14 products are accounting for 70% of sales in FY18 and could see a sharp fall over the next 2-3 years due to increase in competition We have categorized these products in Oral Solids, Fougera, Upsher-Smith and Authorized Generics (AGs). Derma Products: We expect the derma market to become extensively competitive as 6-7 Indian companies are aggressively filing these products. The competition is already visible in Fougera’s own portfolio as well Oral portfolio: There are several in-licensed and AG products, due to which the EBITDA margin of the overall business is in sub-20s. We expect the competition to intensify in products like Levo-T, gEmend, gPrevalite and KCL franchise. Expect overall revenues to fall to US$ 750mn by FY21E.

Page 4: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 4

Sandoz’s Para IV pipeline: Lot of me-too products

Of the potential 55-60 pending ANDAs, we have been able to track 49 ANDAs filed by Sandoz in the US. There are hardly any opportunities where Sandoz is likely to have a sole FTF exclusivity.

The key launches include – AndroGel (Anytime), Concerta (FY20), Suboxone AG (FY19/20), and Oxycontin (FY20). Most of these products will have minimum 3 generic players in the market on the date of launch. The US$ 100mn payout is likely to be

related to AG opportunities where ARBP may have to pay on achieving certain milestones. However, the ability of any player to gain market share in AG product is not much.

We have analysed a number of products approved by US FDA for Sandoz since 2010. It has been observed that since 2015, the oral and derma approvals have gone down significantly. The company has received only 11 approvals over the last four years.

Oral+Derma Approvals For Sandoz Revenue Potential Of Para IV Pipeline

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

14 14

2

6

1

0-5 5-10 10-20 20-50 50-100Potential Revenues (US$ mn)

Number of Products in Sandoz pipeline

Sandoz’s oral+derma pipeline is thinner than expectations Most of the bigger products will have minimum 3 generic players in the market on the date of launch The AG tie-up with Novartis can provide some opportunities like Afinitor, but the margin could be really low It has been observed that since 2015, the oral and derma launches have gone down significantly for Sandoz The company has received only 11 approvals over the last four years in these two categories

12

5

13

67

1

3

5

2

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

No of ANDA approvals

Page 5: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 5

Sandoz's Oral + Derma pipeline

No. Brand Name Annual sales (US$ mn)

Probable Launch Timeline

Competitive Landscape At Launch

1 Abilify 7,800 (pre-generic) Anytime 16 2 Baraclude 320 Anytime 12 3 Detrol LA 570 (pre-generic) Anytime 4 4 Hectorol >200 Anytime 2 6 Nuvigil 480 Anytime 3 7 Pristiq 850 Anytime 8 8 Trilipix 500 Anytime 6 9 Androgel 577 Anytime 4

10 Doryx 110 Anytime 3 11 Rapaflo 230 FY19 3 12 Axiron 150 FY19 4 13 Oxycontin 2,800 FY20 7 14 Concerta >1000 FY20 6 15 Suboxone AG >1500 FY20 5 16 Brilinta 450 FY21 12 17 Vimpat 1,122 FY22 15 18 Dexilant 300 FY21 4 19 Tecfidera 3,169 FY21 30 20 Vyvanse 2,161 FY23 5 21 Oxecta N/A FY23 4 22 Xifaxan 2,800 Beyond FY23 4 23 Eliquis 1,832 Beyond FY23 20 24 Imbruvica 1,111 Beyond FY23 8 25 Invokana 1,111 Beyond FY23 13 26 Invokamet 904 Beyond FY23 13 27 Otezla 835 Beyond FY23 20 28 Tivicay 626 Beyond FY23 3 29 Linzess 353 Beyond FY23 4 30 Multaq 319 Beyond FY23 9 31 Oracea 281 Beyond FY23 6 32 Nucynta 254 Beyond FY23 4 33 Myrbetriq 160 Beyond FY23 9 34 Fentora 119 Beyond FY23 1 35 Nuedexta 103 Beyond FY23 5 36 Savella 450 Beyond FY23 9

Except bigger products like Androgel, Oxycontin, Concerta, Vyvanse, Linzess and Nucynta, most of the other opportunities are not so lucrative Even in these select opportunities we expect at least 3 players in the market on the day of launch We do believe some of earlier para IV filings could have been withdrawn as market may not have remained as lucrative as before (like –Abilify or Baraclude)

Page 6: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 6

No. Brand Name Annual sales (US$ mn)

Probable Launch Timeline

Competitive Landscape At Launch

37 Rytary 92 Beyond FY23 3 38 Trintellix 91 Beyond FY23 13 39 Gilotrif 40 Beyond FY23 5 40 Aplenzin 30 Beyond FY23 1 41 Gocovri 1 Beyond FY23 1 42 Simcor - - - 43 Niaspan 1000 (pre-generic) Auro already present 8 44 Opana 160 Auro already present 7 45 Prandin 100 Auro already present 6 46 Toviaz 100 Auro already present 2 47 Valcyte 80 Auro already present 5 48 Zemplar 100 Auro already present 8

Aurobindo’s own pipeline is more exciting

ARBP has 145 ANDAs pending in the US, which includes 93 oral solids, 7 OTCs and 45 injectable products. We have been able to track close to 47 para IV filings (largely orals). Traditionally, ARBP has focussed on non-exclusive para IV filings, which incurs less litigation costs. It is also clearly visible from the list given below. We believe, most of the oral products to see at least 5 players on launch date.

ARBP’s plan for future filings is more robust; focussed on niche segments like Oncology injectables, Hormones, Inhalers, Transdermals, Depo-injectables and Biosimilars. The company is targeting complex Hormone launches by 2HFY20, oncology injectables by FY21, Transdermals by 2HFY21, Inhalers by FY22/23 and biosimilars by FY23/24. Since a large part of these filings are yet to be done, and lucrative launches can only happen FY22 onwards, the visibility on top line growth is low as of now. We estimate ARBP’s own portfolio to grow at 7-8% CAGR over FY18-21E, driven by 40+ product launches every year.

Overall, there are total 15 products in Sandoz’s pipeline that are common to ARBP, 6 of these products have already been launched by ABRP Sandoz’s acquisition will give additional cash-flows to invest in R&D. We believe ARBP to scale up its R&D by 70-80mn in FY20 (~5.5% of sales) Most of these product launches are likely to be in FY22-23. Hence, expect first two years after acquisition to be flat in terms of revenue growth and earnings

Page 7: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 7

Aurobindo’s Pipeline For The US

No. Brand Name Annual sales (US$ mn) Probable Launch Competitive Landscape 1 Lamictal XR 300 (pre-generic) Anytime 8 2 Lipitor 8000 (pre-generic) Anytime 13 3 Mucinex 73 Anytime 6 4 Namenda XR 930 Anytime 9 5 Rapaflo 230 Anytime 6 Tikosyn 200 Anytime 7 7 Zymaxid >50 Anytime 5 8 Wellbutrin XR/SR 1000+ (pre-generic) Anytime 18 9 Toprol XR 400 Anytime 10

10 Prevacid ODT 250 Anytime 5 11 Gilenya 3109 2HFY19 7 12 Latuda 1254 2HFY19 5 13 Renagel 230 2HFY19 5 14 Fortamet >300 FY20 7 15 Vesicare 1100 FY20 3 16 Uloric 390 FY20 14 17 Pulmicort repusles 470 FY20 7 18 Acular Ls - FY21 6 19 Truvada 2384 FY21 7 20 Emtriva 30 FY22 3 21 Bystolic 1100 FY22 6 22 Doribax - FY22 4 23 Livalo 245 FY23 7 24 Kaletra 116 Upon settlement 4 25 Tygacil inj 300 Upon settlement 6 26 Atripla 1898 Beyond FY23 6 27 Onglyza 376 Beyond FY23 28 Xarelto 2288 Beyond FY23 7 29 Aubagio 1071 Beyond FY23 20 30 Jublia 310 Beyond FY23 8 31 Pomalyst 778 Beyond FY23 7 32 Tradjenta And Jentadueto 1847 Beyond FY23 13 33 Prezista 1851 Beyond FY23 7 34 Equetro - Beyond FY23 35 Kyprolis 512 Beyond FY23 10 36 Lastacaft - Beyond FY23 37 Xtandi 1170 Beyond FY23 6

Aurobindo (ARBP) has 145 products in the pipeline for the US market. We have been able to track 45+ para IV products. Most of these opportunities are oral formulations and will have minimum 5 players in the market on launch date. However, this is line with ABRP’s strategy as they prefer to spend less on litigation and have chosen shared exclusive opportunities in the past Some of the attractive launches over next few years include – Renagel, Prevacid ODT, Truvada, Vesicare and Tygacil Injection

Page 8: COMPANY UPDATE 30 NOV 2018 Aurobindo Pharma - Update... · 2018-12-03 · largest company in the US by generic prescriptions. It will have 8% Rx share, followed by Teva at 15%. ARBP

AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 8

Potential Injectable Launches In Future (either filed or preparing to file)

No. Product Name (Brand/Molecule) Annual sales (US$ mn) Probable Launch Competitive Landscape At Launch

1 Cyclophosphamide 420 (pre-generic) FY19/FY20 3 2 Phytonadione - FY19/FY20 4 3 Vancomycin 100 FY19/FY20 10 4 Isuprel 150 FY19/FY20 6 5 Bloxiverz 110 FY20 10 6 Vitamin A - Palmitate >150 FY20 - 7 Kenalog-40 150 FY20 4 8 Iron Sucrose 200 No visibility on launch 1 9 Lovenox >1000 No visibility on launch 5

10 Sodium Bicarbonate - No visibility on launch 2 11 Octreotide Acetate 600 (pre-generic) No visibility on launch 9 12 Octreotide Acetate LAR 800 No visibility on launch 1-2 13 Leuprolide Acetate 700 (Depo+normal) No visibility on launch 4 14 Leuprolide Acetate Depo 700 (Depo+normal) No visibility on launch 1-2 15 Ganciclovir - No visibility on launch 8 16 Fosaprepitant 500 No visibility on launch 2-3 17 Carmustine 85 No visibility on launch 5-6 18 Sodium Nitroprusside 70 No visibility on launch 15

ARBP has 45 injectable products in the pipeline, we expect some of these opportunities to be really lucrative. However, visibility on injectable products is really low as they are generally para III or para II filings

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AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 9

Aurobindo’s Pipeline Preparation In Complex Generic Space

Category Filings planned Market (US$ bn) Filed Approved Comment Oncology 71

45 (Onco+Hormones) 7 1 55 products (Of 71) are already in development.

Also plans to file these in EU, Canada, and other key EM. To file 15-18 ANDAs in FY19. Hormones 8 6

Biosimilars 14 45 - - To start Phase I clinical trials for Bevacinab (Avastin) in FY19. Another ophthalmic product to go in clinic in FY20.

Peptides 16 12 4 - Will file 3 DMFs in FY19. Penems 0.5 2 2 Launched both products.

Topicals 38 5 1 - 24 products will start clinical trials or BE studies in FY19. Likely to file 5 ANDAs in FY19. 15+ filings in FY20.

Transdermal 5 3 - - Clinical studies started in June-18, and first ANDA filing is expected in Nov-18.

Inhalers 6 7.5 - - Pilot pharmacokinetics analysis for a key product will start in FY20. First ANDA filing is expected in FY20.

Nasals 5 0.5 - - 2 ANDAs will be filed in FY19 and the remaining in FY20.

Depot 4 3.5 - - The products are waiting for the commissioning of manufacturing facility.

Vaccines 1 6 - - All trials are expected to complete by FY20, and Auro is expecting to take part in FY21 govt tenders.

US Segment-wise Break Up (US$ mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Oral Portfolio 611 689 700 805 769 765 762 YoY (%) 12.8 1.5 15.0 -4.4 -0.5 -0.5 Controlled Substances 54 75 70 65 70 70 70 YoY (%) 38.9 -6.7 -7.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 Natrol + OTC 32 84 94 120 165 190 215 YoY (%) 167.5 11.5 27.7 37.5 15.2 13.2 Injectables 69 92 155 164 223 266 292 YoY (%) 33.0 68.6 5.8 36.2 19.0 9.8 Sandoz 851 750 YoY (%) -11.5 Total Revenues 766 941 1019 1154 1228 2141 2091 YoY (%) 22.8 8.3 13.2 6.4 74.4 -2.4

ARBP is preparing for 150+ filings in complex generic space which includes – Oncology, Hormones, Biosimilars, Peptides, Penems, Topicals, Transdermals and Inhalers etc We believe most of the significant launches to start happening from FY22 onwards

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AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 10

History of acquisitions

ARBP has acquired wisely in the past: Historically, ARBP has never acquired a portfolio/asset by paying more than 2.5x of sales. The most expensive acquisition has been of Generis Pharma in Europe at 2.1x of sales. It has helped ARBP to maintain RoCs within a respectable range of 17-20% over the last five years. Although Sandoz’s oral+derma portfolio is also being bought at ~1x of sales, the longevity of product sales is in question. Since it is one of the largest acquisitions by ARBP in terms of size, despite lower valuations, ROCs will fall below 15% for the first time in the last six years.

US peers faltered post big acquisitions: Recent history of big-ticket generic acquisitions has been disastrous for acquirers as stocks have tumbled 30-

70% over a period of three years from acquisition. Endo has lost 93% of its market value in three years from the announcement of its acquisition with Par Pharma. However, along with expensive acquisition, several other legal issues were also one of the few reasons for Endo’s fall. Share prices of Teva, Hikma and Amneal have also declined 67%, 32% and 7% respectively.

Performance of local peers: Indian companies are faring better; share prices of Sun Pharma and Cipla have been steady. Still, it qualifies for weaker stock performance. One thing which could have helped Indian companies from falling is their robust domestic franchise and growing RoW businesses. However, ARBP has hardly any branded presence.

Performance Of Indian Generics Post Major M&A Performance Of US Generics Post Major M&A

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Recent history of big-ticket generic acquisitions has been a disaster for acquirers as stocks have tumbled 30-70% over the next three years (for Teva, Endo, Hikma, and Lupin) Indian peers like Sun Pharma and Cipla have fared better, but still have given negligible returns to share holders during similar period

51

99

117

-

50

100

150

200

250

T0

T1

T2

T3

Lupin Cipla Sun

33

68

7

93.8

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

T0

T1

T2

T3

Teva Hikma Endo Amneal

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AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 11

Recent Big Ticket Generic Acquisitions In The US

Year Acquirer Target Target Therapy Target

Rev (US$)

Price (US$)

Valuation P/S (x) Thesis (short version of synergy)

2015 Actavis Allergan

Eye care, Botox/ neuromodulators, skin care, medical devices

7.2bn 77.4bn 10.7

Secures a leading position in eye care, CNS, derma, women's health, plastic surgery, gastro and urology. Expands international presence in ~100 countries.

2016 Teva Actavis Generics

Dermatology, CNS, Eye Care, Women’s Health and Urology, GI and Cystic Fibrosis, CVS, Anti-Infectives

13bn 40.5bn 3.2

Merged co. is propelled to the top 10 global pharma cos. Cost synergies amount to US$ ~1.4bn annually.

2018 Amneal Impax Niche Generic and Specialty businesses 770mn 1.3bn 1.7

Creates the 5th largest US generics co. with a portfolio of over 300 products of US$ ~6.4bn in value. Cost synergies amounting to US$ 200mn in 3 years

2016 Lupin Gavis Derma and Controlled Substance products 96mn 880mn 9.2

Expand its US presence, its pipeline of dermatology, controlled substance products and other high-value and niche generics.

2016 Cipla Invagen & Exelan

CVS, anti-infective, CNS, anti-inflammatory, anti-diabetic, anti-depressants

225mn 550mn 2.4

Scale US business and obtain an entry point for Cipla's respiratory and injectable product pipeline. Create a diversified portfolio in therapies like CVS, CNS, respiratory, oncology and diabetes

2016 Hikma Roxane oncology, respiratory, extended release opioids

770mn 2.6bn 3.3

Establishing Hikma as the sixth largest in US generic space. Adding 90 products in pipeline with 60 para IVs and facilities with complex generic capabilities

2015 Endo Par Complex generic formulations and exclusive products

1.3bn 8.0bn 6.1

To add 115 pending ANDAs in the US with 33% FTF opportunities To become top 5 generic company in the US

If we observe the M&A activities in the US generics space over the last five years, most of them have resulted into a loss of shareholder value as returns have been either negative or negligible ARBP does fare better in this comparison as it has closed the deal at lower valuations (~1x p/s) However, a large base of generic portfolio (0.8x of ARBP) which is only likely to decline over the next few years could result into sluggish revenue growth and deteriorating earnings

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Aurobindo’s Past Acquisitions

Year Target Co. Therapy Areas Of Target Co.

Revenue of Target

Co.

Investment Made by Acquirer

Price/ Sales (x)

Thesis for Acquisition Assets Acquired

2018 Sandoz (Oral Solids & Derma) OS and Derma USD 1.2bn USD 0.9bn

- USD 1bn 0.75

To expand presence in the US with larger portfolio of 500+ products

Oral and Derma businesses along with select facilities

2018 Apotex Diversified EUR 133mn Euro 74mn 0.56

Expand footprint in Poland, Czech, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium

Personnel, products, marketing authorizations and dossier license rights

2017 Generis Farmaceutica S.A.

CVS, CNS, anti-infectives, genito-urinary

EUR ~62mn

Rs 9.7bn (EUR

135mn) ~2.1

Gain a leadership position with Generis being one of the top pharma companies in Portugal

Manufacturing facility with a capacity of 1.2bn tablets/capsules per year.

2014 Actavis (7 European countries)

Women’s health, urology, gastroenterology, dermatology

EUR 320mn

(loss making)

Euro 30mn 0.09

Traction in 7 Western European countries. The loss-making businesses turned profitable in FY17

Commercial operations in the countries along with robust

2014 Natrol Dietary supplements

USD ~105mn

USD 132.5mn 1.23

Entry into the US nutraceuticals markets with a leading brand. The US nutra market is expected to show robust growth.

Gained access to well-established brands, strong customer base, and good distributor relations

2009 Trident Life Sciences Injectables plant - Rs ~ 1.6bn -

Will enable ramp up in onco and anti-infective injectables

Injectables plant

2013 Hyacinths Pharma API manufacturing - Rs 15cr;

(US$ 3mn) -

All necessary approvals and ideal location for future expansion

API manufacturing plant

2013 Silicon Life Sciences

Manufacturing of non-sterile penems - - -

Gaining traction in the area of non-sterile penems

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Low valuation has been a key highlight of ARBP’s acquisition history. It has never acquired any asset above ~2.5x p/s, highest being 2.1x paid for Generis Although most of these assets have been loss making or in low growth category Sandoz will be the largest ever acquisition done by ARBP in the company’s history and it will be the first generic acquisition in the US

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Earnings Contribution From Sandoz To Decline

Although Sandoz will add Rs 10/sh earnings in the first year of acquisition, we expect the contribution to fall dramatically over a few years post acquisition. It will be largely driven by higher competition in existing products, thin pipeline and negative financial leverage.

Return ratios are likely to fall below 15% for the first time in last 5 years while net debt/EBITDA to go up to 1.8x from 1.0x now.

Although the leverage ratios are looking comfortable on current estimates, the situation can worsen very quickly in the event of a regulatory clampdown for pure play generic company with no branded business to support the cash flow. So, in our view, the business fundamentals are becoming more risky post this acquisition with debt rising 3x in FY20E.

Earnings Contribution From Sandoz (Rs/sh) Earnings Growth To Slow Down Post FY20E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

10

-2

5 23 54 35 39 41 41 56 56

12

-122

-338

350

138

-3614 5 -2

371

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

EPS (Rs/Share) YoY growth (%)

We expect Sandoz’s earnings contribution to decline sharply post FY20E, on the back of higher competition in derma and oral solids, dry product pipeline and negative financial leverage Although at 1.8x Debt/EBITDA or 0.6x Net debt to equity, ratios appear comfortable, the large debt of Rs 98bn could prove fatal in the event of a regulatory clampdown. Hence, we believe the fundamentals are weakening post this acquisition RoC is also likely to fall below 15% for the first time in the last 5 years

10.5

6.5

3.2

2.0

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E

EPS contribution from Sandoz

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Ex-Sandoz, Expect 6% Revenue CAGR Over FY19-21E EBITDA Margin Expansion To Be Limited Hereon

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Net Debt To Jump To Rs 98bn in FY20E ROCs To Fall Below 15%

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Revenue growth to be muted post FY20E, expect ex-Sandoz growth to be at 6%YoY. EBITDA margin expansion to be muted as ARBP will invest heavily in R&D post Sandoz’s acquisition Net Debt to jump 3x in FY20E on account of acquisition. While Debt/EBITDA to increase to 1.8x from 1x in FY19E. RoCE to fall below 15% first time post FY13

-5

12

42

3432

2823

1921

18

0 7

21 20 20 2017

14 1513

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

ROE (%) ROCE (%)

46 59 81 121 138 149 165 184 256 265

-8

133

94

32 2512 9 12

81

0

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Total revenues (Rs bn) YoY growth (%)

6 9 23 26 32 34 38 39 58 60

13 15

28

21 23 23 23

21 23

23

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

EBITDA (Rs bn) Margin %

30 32 35 33 36 18 24 34 98 85

5.1

4.0

1.6 1.5 1.40.9

1.21.0 1.8

1.3

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Net debt (Rs bn) Debt/EBITDA

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R&D Spend To Scale Up US$ 70-80mn in FY20E Robust ANDA Portfolio In The US

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

2 2 3 3 5 5 7 8 14 15

3.4 3.53.1

2.6

3.5 3.64.0

4.5

5.5 5.5

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

R&D expense (Rs bn) % of sales

165 166

215

276

327356

141

189162 143 140 145

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Sep'

18

ANDA Approvals ANDA Pending

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Assumptions

FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E The US 68,272 74,421 86,548 149,876 150,528 Growth (%) 12.3 9.0 16.3 73.2 0.4 Europe 32,771 43,544 47,898 52,688 57,957 Growth (%) 4.7 32.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 ARV 11,854 8,396 8,396 9,236 10,159 Growth (%) (2.0) (29.2) - 10.0 10.0 RoW 7,556 8,971 10,182 11,557 13,117 Growth (%) 16.9 18.7 13.5 13.5 13.5 APIs 30,420 29,622 31,213 32,382 33,615 Growth (%) 5.5 (2.6) 5.4 3.7 3.8 Total 150,873 164,954 184,238 255,738 265,377 Growth (%) 8.2 9.3 11.7 38.8 3.8 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Valuations

On an average, ARBP has traded at 16x and 15x one year forward P/E over last 5 and 10 years respectively. At CMP it is trading at 14.6x FY20E and 14.4x FY21E EPS, which is at par with historical average and 30-35% discount to peers. The large discount to peers can be attributed to the nature of the business; with peers having close to 50% contribution from branded segments while ARBP remains a pure generic company across the markets.

Since the stock has run up post Sandoz’s acquisition announcement and subsequent improvement in FY20 earnings is largely factored in and on the back of our fresh understanding of the product portfolio, we are downgrading the stock to NEUTRAL. We don’t expect ARBP’s financial performance to deteriorate as sharply as peers who have done similar generic acquisitions, but we do believe this acquisition to slow down the top line and earnings post FY20E.

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ARBP Has Traded At 14.5x One Year Fwd PE Over The Last 10 Years

9.9 9.425.6 21.5 21.8 21.3 19.9 16.4 15.9

16.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

Jan-

20

RoIC (%) 1 yr fwd P/E (x) - LHS PE Average (Oct-08 - Oct-18) - LHS

?

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Peer Set Comparison

Mcap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs/sh) Reco TP/FV

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Sun Pharma 1,182 493 BUY 670 13.0 16.7 22.0 28.0 38.0 29.5 22.4 17.6 8.3 10.1 12.2 13.9 Aurobindo Pharma 475 811 NEU 840 41.4 40.6 55.7 56.4 19.6 20.0 14.6 14.4 23.0 18.6 21.1 17.8 Dr Reddy's Labs 452 2,722 BUY 2,825 59.2 92.1 107.2 149.0 46.0 29.5 25.4 18.3 7.8 11.5 11.9 14.2 Cipla 436 541 NEU 605 17.6 18.7 23.7 31.3 30.7 28.9 22.8 17.3 10.6 10.2 11.7 13.8 Lupin 401 887 BUY 1,030 38.0 27.9 38.7 55.2 23.3 31.8 22.9 16.1 12.7 9.0 11.6 14.9 Divi's Labs 382 1,437 SELL 1,345 32.4 50.4 57.1 65.1 44.4 28.5 25.1 22.1 15.2 20.9 20.5 20.3 Cadila Healthcare 374 365 BUY 475 13.0 17.3 20.6 22.8 28.1 21.1 17.7 16.0 17.0 18.5 18.6 17.6 Torrent Pharma 300 1,774 BUY 1,800 40.1 47.7 67.1 96.0 44.3 37.2 26.4 18.5 15.1 16.4 20.0 24.1 Alkem Laboratories 229 1,913 BUY 2,415 57.6 74.4 96.2 123.1 33.2 25.7 19.9 15.5 14.8 17.1 19.2 21.0 Glenmark 184 653 BUY 790 17.5 27.0 35.2 46.4 37.4 24.2 18.6 14.1 9.4 12.8 14.7 16.9 Jubilant Life Sciences 123 775 BUY 980 45.5 54.3 63.8 79.2 17.0 14.3 12.1 9.8 19.3 19.3 19.1 19.9 Alembic Pharma 116 617 NEU 610 21.9 24.2 29.4 38.5 28.2 25.5 21.0 16.0 20.0 18.7 19.2 21.2 Strides Shasun 43 485 BUY 480 12.7 4.1 22.3 37.3 38.1 116.9 21.7 13.0 2.7 2.1 7.7 11.9 Laurus Labs 41 383 NR 505 15.7 10.0 23.1 35.0 24.3 38.2 16.6 10.9 11.9 7.0 14.5 18.7 Dishman Carbogen Amcis 38 238 BUY 350 13.2 16.1 20.9 26.6 18.0 14.8 11.4 9.0 4.3 5.0 6.2 7.6 Suven Life Sciences 31 241 NR 450 9.7 9.8 11.0 12.5 24.8 24.6 22.0 19.3 17.2 15.2 15.0 15.2 Granules India 23 89 BUY 140 5.2 8.4 10.6 13.3 17.0 10.6 8.4 6.7 12.0 15.4 17.0 18.4 Neuland Labs 6 479 BUY 835 11.0 15.5 51.8 67.2 43.7 30.9 9.3 7.1 2.2 3.2 9.1 10.8 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Change In Estimates (Consolidated)

Rs mn Previous New % Chg

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 181,103 259,445 272,542 184,238 255,738 265,377 1.7 (1.4) (2.6) EBITDA 35,568 55,377 60,698 39,058 57,541 59,710 9.8 3.9 (1.6) APAT 21,982 33,077 35,026 23,815 32,614 33,226 8.3 (1.4) (5.1) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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Income Statement (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 149,295 164,998 184,238 255,738 265,377 Growth (%) 8.1 10.5 11.7 38.8 3.8 Material Expenses 64,343 67,527 79,222 107,410 110,131 Employee Expenses 17,678 21,308 24,688 33,502 34,764 SG&A Expenses 11,190 12,638 13,634 15,856 17,780 Other Expenses 21,742 25,640 27,636 41,430 42,991 EBITDA 34,343 37,885 39,058 57,541 59,710 EBITDA Margin (%) 23.0 23.0 21.2 22.5 22.5 EBITDA Growth (%) 7.7 10.3 3.1 47.3 3.8 Depreciation 4,276 5,580 6,433 12,535 13,360 EBIT 30,067 32,306 32,626 45,006 46,349 Other Income (Incl EO Items) 538 1,020 1,050 400 550 Interest 667 777 1,279 2,501 3,405 PBT 29,938 32,548 32,396 42,905 43,494 Tax (Incl Deferred) 7,596 8,183 7,516 10,297 10,439 RPAT 22,341 24,365 24,880 32,608 33,055 Minority Interest (55) (34) (14) (6) (5) EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (621) 168 1,079 - - APAT 23,017 24,232 23,815 32,614 33,060 APAT Growth (%) 13.7 5.3 (1.7) 36.9 1.4 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 39.3 41.4 40.6 55.7 56.4

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 586 586 586 586 586 Reserves 93,133 116,218 138,569 169,718 201,313 Total Shareholders Funds 93,719 116,804 139,155 170,304 201,899 Minority Interest 21 18 19 19 19 Long Term Debt 1,814 4,512 3,384 69,038 62,134 Short Term Debt 29,027 40,313 37,088 33,379 30,042 Total Debt 30,841 44,825 40,472 102,417 92,176 Net Deferred Taxes (1,185) 765 780 796 812 Other Non-Current Liabilities & Provns 224 450 550 550 550

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 123,621 162,863 180,975 274,086 295,456 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 44,275 58,876 72,443 107,908 116,547 CWIP 15,596 13,995 8,500 9,500 6,500 Goodwill 4,063 8,165 8,165 43,165 43,165 Investments 2,459 3,115 3,115 3,115 3,115 Other Non-current Assets 2,363 2,995 2,725 6,250 6,676 Total Non-current Assets 68,755 87,148 94,949 169,938 176,004 Cash & Equivalents 12,524 20,494 6,733 4,138 6,749 Inventories 43,305 58,584 60,773 79,454 84,484 Debtors 27,653 30,844 53,000 66,562 76,341 Other Current Assets 8,580 12,395 13,325 18,200 19,175 Total Current Assets 79,538 101,822 127,098 164,216 180,001 Creditors 24,883 26,274 29,705 40,617 41,748 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 12,313 20,327 18,100 23,590 25,550 Total Current Liabilities 37,196 46,601 47,805 64,207 67,298 Net Current Assets 42,342 55,221 79,293 100,009 112,703 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 123,621 162,863 180,975 274,086 295,455

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 30,608 32,412 31,346 42,505 42,944 Non-operating & EO items (732) (858) 1 10 11 Interest expenses 545 629 1,279 2,501 3,405 Depreciation 4,276 5,580 6,433 12,535 13,360 Working Capital Change 5,825 (10,690) (23,702) (24,241) (13,120) Tax Paid (7,737) (7,524) (7,501) (10,282) (10,425) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 32,786 19,548 7,857 23,028 36,176 Capex (16,846) (12,406) (14,505) (21,000) (19,000) Free cash flow (FCF) 15,940 7,142 (6,647) 2,028 17,176 Investments (1,179) (7,442) - (63,000) - Non-operating Income 155 279 1,050 400 550 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (17,870) (19,570) (13,455) (83,600) (18,450) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (17,279) 12,022 (4,353) 61,945 (10,242) Interest Expenses (568) (742) (1,279) (2,501) (3,405) FCFE (2,932) 11,259 (11,230) (1,127) 4,079 Share Capital Issuance 67 2 - - - Dividend (1,372) (2,641) (1,465) (1,465) (1,465) Others 9,326 (650) (1,066) (3) (4) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (9,827) 7,992 (8,163) 57,977 (15,116) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 5,088 7,970 (13,760) (2,595) 2,610 EO Items, Others - - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 12,523 20,494 6,733 4,138 6,749

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios

FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 56.9 59.1 57.0 58.0 58.5 EBITDA Margin 23.0 23.0 21.2 22.5 22.5 APAT Margin 15.4 14.7 12.9 12.8 12.5 RoE 27.6 23.0 18.6 21.1 17.8 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 21.3 19.9 16.4 15.9 13.1 RoCE 19.7 17.3 14.4 15.2 12.5 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 25.4 25.1 23.2 24.0 24.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 Inventory (days) 105.9 129.6 120.4 113.4 116.2 Debtors (days) 67.6 68.2 105.0 95.0 105.0 Other Current Assets (days) 21.0 27.4 26.4 26.0 26.4 Payables (days) 60.8 58.1 58.9 58.0 57.4 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 30.1 45.0 35.9 33.7 35.1 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 103.5 122.2 157.1 142.7 155.0 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 Net D/E (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 Interest Coverage (x) 45.1 41.6 25.5 18.0 13.6 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 39.3 41.4 40.6 55.7 56.4 Dividend 2.0 3.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 Book Value 160.0 199.4 237.5 290.7 344.6 VALUATION P/E (x) 20.6 19.6 20.0 14.6 14.4 P/BV (x) 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 13.2 13.0 10.0 9.4 EV/Revenues (x) 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.1 OCF/EV (%) 6.6 3.9 1.5 4.0 6.5 FCF/EV (%) 3.2 1.4 (1.3) 0.4 3.1 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) (0.6) 2.4 (2.4) (0.2) 0.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 11-Nov-17 740 NEU 800 11-Jan-18 675 BUY 830 13-Apr-18 610 BUY 835 29-May-18 579 BUY 732 13-Jun-18 596 BUY 740 10-Jul-18 623 BUY 740

11-Aug-18 610 BUY 691 10-Oct-18 736 BUY 875 14-Nov-18 775 BUY 875 30-Nov-18 811 NEU 840

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

400

500

600

700

800

900

Nov-

17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-

18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov-

18

Aurobindo TP

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Disclosure: We, Amey Chalke, MBA & Eshan Desai, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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AUROBINDO PHARMA: COMPANY UPDATE

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