Community Vulnerability Community Vulnerability and and

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Dr. Shawn Dalton, Director, ESDRC, UNB, Fredericton Dr. Shawn Dalton, Director, ESDRC, UNB, Fredericton

Prativa Pradhan, MPHIL in Policy Studies, ESDRC, UNB, Prativa Pradhan, MPHIL in Policy Studies, ESDRC, UNB, FrederictonFredericton

OutlineOutline

• Research backgroundResearch background

• Objectives of studyObjectives of study

• Concept and MethodologyConcept and Methodology

• Key questions of investigationKey questions of investigation

• Anticipated Results Anticipated Results

• SummarySummary

Research BackgroundResearch Background• Impacts of changing climate is already evident in every region of Impacts of changing climate is already evident in every region of

Canada (NRCan, 2008)Canada (NRCan, 2008)

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that impacts of climate change will stress communities around the world. impacts of climate change will stress communities around the world. The impacts predicted will affect biophysical systems, which The impacts predicted will affect biophysical systems, which subsequently will affect human systems reliant on them (IPCC, 2007). subsequently will affect human systems reliant on them (IPCC, 2007).

• Communities in the local level are struggling to understand the Communities in the local level are struggling to understand the impacts of climate change (Lantz. impacts of climate change (Lantz. et.al.,et.al., 2006) 2006)

• Many of Atlantic Canada’s communities are rural, depopulated and Many of Atlantic Canada’s communities are rural, depopulated and poor, and so their ecological, social and environmental conditions are poor, and so their ecological, social and environmental conditions are sensitive (Mckenzie sensitive (Mckenzie et.al.,et.al., 2006). 2006).

• Research on community adaptation towards integrated planning is Research on community adaptation towards integrated planning is limited. Relatively few studies being conducted at the community levellimited. Relatively few studies being conducted at the community level

Objectives of StudyObjectives of Study• To understand and identify NB To understand and identify NB

communities vulnerable to floodingcommunities vulnerable to flooding

and drought;and drought;

• To determine the different To determine the different

characteristicscharacteristics of vulnerability of vulnerability

in the communities of NB; and in the communities of NB; and

• To determine how integrated planning can minimize creation To determine how integrated planning can minimize creation of new vulnerable communitiesof new vulnerable communities

Funded By:Funded By:

• This work is funded by Environmental Trust FundThis work is funded by Environmental Trust Fund

Concepts andConcepts and MethodologyMethodology

• Definitions of Vulnerability :Definitions of Vulnerability : “The degree to which a system is susceptible, or unable

to cope, with adverse effects of climate change. It is the function of character, magnitude and rate to which a system is exposed to its sensitivity and adaptive capacity.” (IPCC,2007)

“People’s capacity to adapt to any event that poses threat because of the lack of resources caused by their social factors” (UNEP, 2006).

Vulnerability is a complex linkage to climate change that requires an understanding between science and public policy to increase the understanding to reduce vulnerability (Marland et al. 2007).

Model for Climate Change and Community VulnerabilityModel for Climate Change and Community Vulnerability

Climate change

Exposure

Coping range

Potential impacts

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change depends on potential impacts, but can be alleviated using adaptive capacity.Source: Fitzharris, 2007

Working ToolWorking Tool

COPING

RANGE

EXPOSURE

Low exposure and low coping range

Low exposure and high coping range

High exposure and low coping range

High exposure and high coping range

Key Questions for InvestigationKey Questions for Investigation

Which communities in New Brunswick are Which communities in New Brunswick are exposedexposed to floods and drought? to floods and drought?• GeographyGeography• PopulationPopulation

What is the What is the coping rangecoping range of exposed communities? of exposed communities?• Socioeconomic characteristics: i.e. age, income, health and educationSocioeconomic characteristics: i.e. age, income, health and education• Infrastructure: Roads, building age, power supply and water supplyInfrastructure: Roads, building age, power supply and water supply

What are the differences in the exposures and coping ranges between What are the differences in the exposures and coping ranges between upland and coastal (both river and sea) communities in NB?upland and coastal (both river and sea) communities in NB?

Based on the outcomes from questions two and three, what integrated Based on the outcomes from questions two and three, what integrated planning strategies could be employed to assist these communities planning strategies could be employed to assist these communities in responding to climate change, and to minimize the creation of in responding to climate change, and to minimize the creation of new vulnerable communities in New Brunswick?new vulnerable communities in New Brunswick?

Matrix: Variable, Indicator, MeasureMatrix: Variable, Indicator, Measure

PrimaryPrimary

VariableVariable

Component Component

VariableVariable

IndicatorIndicator MeasureMeasure

ExposureExposure

GeographyGeography Proximity to water Proximity to water bodies Wetlandsbodies Wetlands

HydrologyHydrology

FloodplainsFloodplains

Land use Land use

Land coverLand cover

WatershedsWatersheds

Topography Topography /elevation/elevation

-Parish lying -Parish lying within 60 meters within 60 meters of water bodies; of water bodies;

PopulationPopulation Population densityPopulation density >= 10 people/ sq >= 10 people/ sq kmkm

Matrix: Indicator, Variable, MeasureMatrix: Indicator, Variable, MeasurePrimaryPrimary

VariableVariableComponent Component

VariableVariableIndicatorIndicator MeasureMeasure

Coping RangeCoping Range

Socioeconomic Socioeconomic characteristicscharacteristics

IncomeIncome % of households in top 20 % of households in top 20 % of income brackets and % % of income brackets and % of low income householdsof low income households

HealthHealth % of total type of chronic % of total type of chronic illness (Cancer, COPD, illness (Cancer, COPD, Bronchitis and Asthma)Bronchitis and Asthma)

AgeAge

EducationEducation

Dependency ratio: Ratio of Dependency ratio: Ratio of population>65 + <18 to 19-population>65 + <18 to 19-64 years-olds64 years-olds

% of adult population with % of adult population with HS diplomaHS diploma

InfrastructureInfrastructure RoadsRoads Road density per sq kmRoad density per sq km

Building Building envelopeenvelope

Average age of buildingAverage age of building

Power Power SupplySupply

% of population served by % of population served by public power supplypublic power supply

Water Water SupplySupply

% of population served by % of population served by public water supplypublic water supply

MethodologyMethodology

Data CollectionData Collection

• Data is collected from a variety of sources:Data is collected from a variety of sources:

e.g. Statistics Canada, Service NB, Natural Resource e.g. Statistics Canada, Service NB, Natural Resource Canada, Canadian Community Health SurveyCanada, Canadian Community Health Survey

Data AnalysisData Analysis

• The data is analyzed using a geographic information The data is analyzed using a geographic information system system

• The scale of analysis is based on the level of exposureThe scale of analysis is based on the level of exposure

and coping rangeand coping range

• The analysis will help to examine the spatial variation in The analysis will help to examine the spatial variation in vulnerability in the upland and coastal communitiesvulnerability in the upland and coastal communities

MethodologyMethodology

Data Interpretation Data Interpretation

• Data is interpreted on a descriptive and analytical Data is interpreted on a descriptive and analytical basis. basis.

• The results will help to show the discrepancies of The results will help to show the discrepancies of vulnerability in NB.vulnerability in NB.

• There will an indices in the map to indicate the There will an indices in the map to indicate the highest and lowest range of coping range and highest and lowest range of coping range and exposure of the communities to determine exposure of the communities to determine vulnerability.vulnerability.

Anticipated ResultsAnticipated Results

• Identification of NB communities vulnerable to Identification of NB communities vulnerable to floods and droughtfloods and drought

• The differences in The differences in characteristicscharacteristics faced in faced in upland and coastal areas will be determinedupland and coastal areas will be determined

• The knowledge of strategies to cope and adapt The knowledge of strategies to cope and adapt using appropriate integrated planning tools will using appropriate integrated planning tools will be shared to the concerned departments in NB be shared to the concerned departments in NB

• The output will inform the immediate needs to The output will inform the immediate needs to avoid impacts of flooding in communities of NBavoid impacts of flooding in communities of NB

Summary Summary

Results of the research highlight:Results of the research highlight:• Community vulnerability will be assessed Community vulnerability will be assessed

• The quality of the impacts will be assessedThe quality of the impacts will be assessed

• Integrated planning will be highlightedIntegrated planning will be highlighted

This research is useful for:This research is useful for:• Local community peopleLocal community people

• PlannersPlanners

• Policy makersPolicy makers

• Researchers and academicsResearchers and academics

• Emergency Measures OrganizationsEmergency Measures Organizations

This research compels: This research compels: • Need to address community vulnerability for adapting to Need to address community vulnerability for adapting to

climate change in NBclimate change in NB

• Will identify future research needs Will identify future research needs

THANK YOU