CRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB Fredericton

Early high school interventions to increase students’ access to post-secondary education: Experimental impactsCRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB FrederictonReuben Ford, PhD. October 23, 2012

Agenda Rationale behind programs to pilot Program model for two interventions: results to date

Early guarantee of grant Career education

Conclusions: • Early interventions can make a difference to behaviour:

increasing demand for and pursuit of education• Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to

make potentially major changes in their lives Data to be made available for additional research via

Statistics Canada

Canada has high rates of participation in post-secondary education: what is the problem? Increasing the number of youth who participate in post-secondary

education is an economic imperative (promoting growth, innovation and competiveness as population ages) as well as an effective means to promote social inclusion and to reduce social and health inequalities.

Post-secondary access rates could be higher, particularly for young people in key subgroups:• From lower-income families• From “first-generation” families• Students with low academic achievement• Aboriginal youth• Males• Rural youth• Older students• New Brunswick, BC and Alberta

(School leavers survey and follow up: Butlin, 1999; Foley, 2001)

Why don’t they go on? Main reason non-attendees at 18-20 give for not pursuing PSE:

Interplay between external and internal factors• e.g. financial barrier conditioned on how handle feelings about

debt (Looker, 2002)

IllnessWanted trade or vocational training

Applied but was not accepted at schoolWanted to raise a family

No program of interest close to homeHad a good job

Marks too lowHad no interest in pursuing further education

Couldn't decide what to doOther

Wanted to take some time off from studyingDid not have enough money to continue

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

0.5

0.5

1.6

2.2

2.9

7.1

7.8

10.0

12.7

12.9

19.0

23.0

Why don’t they go on? Qualitative studies (COGEM, UofA):

• “for most underprivileged youth in Alberta, university isn’t even on the radar screen”;

• “a lack of awareness about the value of post-secondary education, the scarcity of role models or the absence of encouragement are all barriers to higher learning”

• Parents play an important role in students’ decisions• School officials play an important role only for a minority

If a young person has an “ideal” that involves PSE, which is likely to be heavily influenced by immediate or prevailing cultural environment, then PSE will become a goal – and vice versa. (Finnie and Mueller, 2012)

What can policy do to intervene? • Compensate or change?

Approaches to increase access to PSE: act earlier to change students’ education directions Act early: most programs focus on high-school leavers

• May be too late to change student education directions: decisions made earlier

• Missing the opportunity to change behaviour during final phase of mass (compulsory) education

Test interventions that legitimize and support PSE pathways:• Earlier assurances on affordability, financial aid• Earlier career education on how to make decisions on PSE

pathways, including information about costs and benefits of PSE• Academic preparation, encouragement and support to better take

advantage of existing high school programming directed to PSE• Remove barriers to obtaining important and timely information

Make preparing for the future matter Make preparing for the future easier to do

Future to Discover tests two of these interventions separately and in parallel

• EYH: Explore Your Horizons Enhanced early career education in Grades 10, 11, and 12

• LA: Learning Accounts Early guarantee of

$8,000 grant to pursue PSE for lower-income students

EYH is a career education intervention that delivers workshops, magazines, Web site

Six career education components delivered to a ‘new’ group:

Workshops – 2 hours after school/evening sessions (x20)

• Career Focusing (G10) – finding career focus• Lasting Gifts (G11) – parents become “career

allies”• Future in Focus (G12) – preparing for transition• Post-secondary Ambassadors (G10-G12)• F2D Magazine (G10-G12) – sent to home• Web site for EYH students only (G10-G12)

LA provides an early guarantee of student aid to lower-income families New Brunswick families with below median income

(taken from both parents’ tax returns) Account grows over Grades 10-12 Total $8,000 grant available Account closes at end of 3rd post-secondary year Early promise of aid: enter Grade 10 knowing grant

available No obligation to apply for loans

A random sample of 4,400 Grade 9 students were randomly assigned in NB and 1,000 in MB

Grade 9 students in 51 schools

New Brunswick Learning Accounts eligible

Random Assignment

Comparison Group

Learning Accounts

Explore Your Horizons + Learning

Accounts

Explore Your Horizons

New Brunswick Learning Accounts ineligible, and

Manitoba participants

Random Assignment

Explore Your Horizons

Comparison group

High school graduation and post-secondary impactsMeasured at the start of third academic year following “expected” high school graduation: Graduation (linked school records and YITS-style survey) Applications to and enrolment in post secondary education

(YITS-style survey)• University• Community College• Private Vocational Institutions• Apprenticeships

Enrolment in post secondary education (administrative data for provincial institutions)• University• Community College

LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

LA Comparison Impact0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

89.1184.92

4.19

90.06

82.71

7.35

86.46

79.04

7.41

81.48 81.34

0.14

NB-Fr participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)

ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys

****

LA increased PSE applications - Fr


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

80.83

68.61

12.23

80.65

62.36

18.3

74.40

55.54

18.86

77.78

60.39

17.39

NB-Fr participants applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)


****** *** ***

Strong evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls

Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment

Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62

*********

EYH impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

EYH Comparison Impact0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

89.0385.37

3.66

88.7583.52

5.23

87.87

80.35

7.52

85.1281.87

3.25


ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys

*

EYH increased PSE applications - Fr


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

79.45

68.55

10.91

77.23

62.7

14.53

74.16

57.11

17.05

73.55

60.23

13.32



***** *** *

Strong evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls



********

EYH+LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

EYH+LA Comparison Impact0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

85.8 85.25

0.56

87.8682.7

5.17

86.38

79.82

6.56

86.03

80.39

5.64



EYH+LA increased PSE applications - Fr


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

75.92

68.39

7.53

77.34

61.7

15.65

77.00

56.91

20.08

70.03

61.02

9.02



**** ***

Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls



******

LA increased graduation from high school - An

LA Comparison Impact0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

89.15

80.33

8.82

88.76

77.74

11.02

86.48

75.15

11.34

89.71

75.50

14.21

NB-An participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)


*

LA increased PSE applications - An


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

76.77

64.43

12.34

75.30

61.32

13.98

74.45

56.29

18.16

73.48

48.85

24.63

NB-An applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)

All LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys

*** ******

***

Weaker evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls



**

*

EYH increased graduation from high school - An


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

88.37

80.98

7.39

88.76

78.55

10.21

86.02

74.58

11.43

83.9

77.05

6.86

NB-An participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)


** *** *

EYH increased PSE applications - An


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

71.36

64.30

7.06

70.79

60.99

9.80

65.36

56.46

8.90

61.69

50.39

11.30

NB-An applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)


*

No evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment overall: NB Anglophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls



EYH+LA increased graduation from high school - An


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

88.83

79.71

9.12

88.64

77.07

11.57

87.42

75.46

11.95

87.12

75.65

11.48

NB-An participants graduated from high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)


*** ***

EYH+LA increased PSE applications - An


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

78.02

62.75

15.27

76.33

59.47

16.85

73.14

55.12

18.02

75.74

47.5

28.24

NB-An applied to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)


*** ****** ***

Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls



***

*****

EYH modestly increased graduation from high school - MB

EYH did not increase PSE applications - MB

Little evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: MB students

*** **

-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

ALL

LILE

FGF

Boys

Girls

Aboriginal



*

Conclusion: The impact of the interventions differed by population and sub-groups Anglophone sector: significant impact on high school

graduation and application (demand)• Follow up for longer?

Francophone sector: no significant impact on graduation, but significant impact on post-secondary application and participation rates

Interventions typically increase access for boys Manitoba: not the type of program needed? EYH and EYH+LA increased university enrolment. LA

increased college enrolment. LA is forecast to be very cost effective, generating $2+

benefit per dollar cost to government, sensitive to discount rate

Take aways Interventions can make a difference to behaviour

• Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to make potentially major changes in their lives

Work needed matching program to target group and system Cannot ignore supply More research neededLinked datasets, documentation prepared for Statistics Canada: Grade 9 (baseline) , Grade 12 and PSE3 YITS-style surveys Program management information High school and post-secondary records Financial aid receipt Transfer to Statistics Canada in next 2 months

Documents

CRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB Fredericton