Dialogue. Insight. Solutions.

COLOMBIA’S TOD NAMAUsing Climate Funds to Catalyze Transformational Urban Development

Steve WinkelmanDirector, Transportation &Climate Adaptation

January 2014

• > $7 billion invested in urban transit over past decade• Benefits

– 32% reduction in travel time in Bogota (-20 minutes)

– 15-20% increase in property values along original line– 23% increase in retail sales in areas with new BRT and cycle

paths and improved public spaces– Health and safety improved– Enhanced tax revenues – Enhanced civic culture

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COLOMBIA: LEADER IN BUS RAPID TRANSIT

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BENEFITS OF BRT AT RISK

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LAND USE & TRANSIT:GENERALLY NOT WELL INTEGRATED

TOD focuses public and private development around transit stations to create neighborhoods where people can safely walk, live, work, shop and play.

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ROADWAY ORIENTED TRANSIT

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TOD REDUCES DRIVING:ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA

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TOD GENERATES LOCAL TAX REVENUES

33% of Arlington County real estate taxes from 8% land

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TOD LOWERS GHG EMISSIONS:CURITIBA, BRAZIL

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ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOD:PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, GOVERNMENTS

• Low-income household travel costs: -40% (USA)

• Retail sales: +33% (Dallas light rail)

• Private investment: $100M helped attract $3.5 B (Portland streetcar)

• Property value +18% households w/in 1 km of light rail line in Denver

• Fewer Traffic deaths: 80% less in NYC than Atlanta

• Infrastructure cost savings: 20% lower in California and Mexico• $1 billion in Barranquilla

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COLOMBIAN OPPORTUNITY

FINDETER: Sustainable Cities. New PPP Law.

• TOD Neighborhoods are the “technology”

• Shift where & how public & private investments are made– Increase enviro, economic & social returns– Barranquilla: save $1 billion in infrastructure

• Taps new PPP legislation

• Leverage and mobilize private, national & international funds– $8 billion: transit, social housing – $1.5 billion FINDETER Sustainable Cities– Public investments in TOD can attract up to 20 times their value in private

investment (e.g., NoMa, Portland, Arlington, Hong Kong, Tokyo)

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TOD NAMA WILL TRANSFORM URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN COLOMBIA

• Technical, market, regulatory, policy, institutional…• Local investment gaps• Imperfect public-private collaboration• Inadequate policy integration • Limited value capture and finance mechanisms

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REMOVING BARRIERS TO TOD

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TOD BENEFITS FOR COLOMBIA

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COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: TRANSFORMATION

COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: PARTNERS

• Guide and Focus Strategic Investments in Catalytic Transit Neighborhoods

• Provide policy analysis and guidance to connect national and local policies on transportation, land use and housing with private sector efforts on TOD: – Targeted technical assistance on TOD implementation– Value-capture mechanisms– Replication of policies and plans– Measurement and evaluation

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HOW THE NAMA WORKS

Based on locally-articulated needs

• Project implementation– High-quality design, market analysis, project preparation, pre-construction– Key infrastructure: stations, pedestrian & cycle amenities, public space

• Private-sector collaboration design– Under new PPP law, develop and evaluate RFPs for projects, and

collaboration agreements on TOD implementation

• Finance development– Developing and packaging project funding proposals for domestic and

international investors or donors

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AREAS OF INVESTMENT

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COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: ACTIONS

Financial & Implementation Assistance

CIUDAT

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CATALYTIC TRANSIT NEIGHBORHOODS

Potential locations:

• Cali: Corridor Verde, glorieta redesign, Ciudad Paraiso

• Bogotá: San Bernardo future Metro and BRT station

• Barranquilla: Parque de la Paz (mixed use neighborhood)

• Medellín: Private sector plan for Entre Orillas station area

• Manizales: San Jose affordable housing macro project

• Implementation Progress– Zoning changes, PPPs, policies (CONPES, Decree, PPP guidance…)

• Land Development and Travel– Land use: % of development in TOD areas– Travel: VKT/capita, mode share, trip length

• GHGs– Estimate upfront, measure over time.

• Economic (household, business, governments)– Investment in TOD areas, travel costs, infrastructure, tax revenues, property values, retail

…

• Social– Household travel time, spending on transportation, health

Robust measurement can enhance policy performance.- If address local priorities, it’s desired not a burden (like CDM MRV)

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BROADER APPROACH TO MEASUREMENT

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Range of VKT Savings (2040)% of pop Low High

Large Cities 47% 27% 40%Medium Cities 12% 20% 30%Small Cities 30% 13% 20%Rural 10% 0% 0%Weighted average 100% 19% 29%

0.0

100.0

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2010 2025 2040

Base

Ambitious

Aggressive

Passenger Vehicle VKT (millions)

GHG reductions start from passenger VKT reductions.

Reduce growth in driving (VKT) by 25 - 36% due to changed land use and travel patterns

Considers a range of TOD performance and penetration supported by literature

GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:VEHICLE KM TRAVELED (VKT)

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Mode ShareMode Base BAU TOD Change

2010 2040 2040 vs. BAUCar 7% 25% 15% -10%

Motorcycles 7% 25% 17% -8%

Transit 54% 29% 41% 12%

Walk & Bike 20% 9% 15% 6%

Taxis 6% 6% 6% 0%

Other 6% 6% 6% 0%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100%

Average Trip Length 12 12 10.2 -15%

Representative assumptions for a 30% VKT reduction VKT reductions come from shifting

to other modes and shorter average trip lengths

GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:MODE SHARE

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GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:CO2 SAVINGS

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2010 2025 2040

Base

Ambitious

Aggressive

Colombian light duty vehicle emissions (MMTCO2e

Annual savings by 2040: 3.6 to 5.5 MMTCO2

(15-22% below base case)

Emissions corrected for increased transit emissions

Assumes 20% vehicle efficiency improvement in all scenarios

Thank you!

Gracias!

www.ccap.org

Steve WinkelmanDirector, Transportation and Adaptation Programsswinkelman@ccap.org

@stevewink

Chuck KooshianSenior Policy Analystckooshian@ccap.org