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Colombian Program On Technological And Industrial
Foresight: Achievemens And Perspectives
Javier Medina VásquezFull Professor, Universidad del ValleHead of the National Program on
Technological and Industrial ForesightColciencias – Colombia
“Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on Policy and Decision-
Making”.
IPTS, Seville (Spain) , 28-29 September, 2006
1. COLOMBIAN CONTEXT
Colombia: Foresight Trajectory
Accummulation
The country has a respected Foresight tradition and trajectory in Latin America
Colombia is considered as a reference point for the Andean Zone and its social dynamic in Foresight is comparable to the leading countries in America and Europe.
Results
+ 30 Plans for Territorial Development (Departaments + Municipialities)
+ 20 Strategic Plans for Universities 25 Regional Agendas of SC+T 10 Technological Exercises
18 Technological Exercises in action
+ Capacity and Knowledge required
-
- + Time
Phases of the Colombian ProcessPhases of the Colombian Process
TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)
INCUBATION (2000-2002)INCUBATION (2000-2002)
FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)
STRATEGIC SECTORSSTRATEGIC SECTORS
2005-2006
2. Transition Focus 2005-2006
2003-2004
Development of national
capacities in technological and industrial
foresight
2005-2006
Orientation of national capacities in technological and industrial foresight
for the development of strategic areas in science, technology and innovation.
These areas should be applied to the knowledge economy
Future VisionFuture Vision
Strategic sectors
Strategic sectors Data base of
Methods, case studies
Data base of Methods, case
studies
CallsCalls
Agenda of Activities
Agenda of Activities
TrainingTraining SensibilitationSensibilitationWEB Site WEB Site
PlatformPlatform
DataBaseDataBase
Basic Components of the Program
Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344
Strategies of the National Program on Industrial and Technological Foresight
Six exercises for Six exercises for new STI areas in new STI areas in
ColcienciasColciencias
Four exercises Four exercises for Excellence for Excellence
Centers of Centers of ColcienciasColciencias
Four exercises for Four exercises for Agricultural Agricultural
Productive ChainsProductive Chains
Two Two demonstrative demonstrative exercises for exercises for
Water & EnergyWater & Energy
Strategies
Development of Nation’s Development of Nation’s Vision, in transition toward Vision, in transition toward
society and economy of society and economy of knowledgeknowledge
Technological watch and Technological watch and foresight exercisesforesight exercises
Formation of Trainers & Formation of Trainers & Social Appropriation of Social Appropriation of Foresight KnowledgeForesight Knowledge
Sensitivity Sensitivity Meetings Meetings
International International Seminars Seminars
Analysis of Surroundings,Analysis of Surroundings,Delphi Exercise of strategic Delphi Exercise of strategic
sectors,sectors,Analysis of sector and territorial Analysis of sector and territorial
transformation,transformation,Scenarios & StrategiesScenarios & Strategies
3. Benefits of the focus shift: Global Cooperation
Instituto PRESTInstituto PRESTInstituto PRESTInstituto PREST
(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris
World Futures World Futures Studies FederationStudies Federation
World Futures World Futures Studies FederationStudies Federation
Millenium ProjectMillenium Project
United Nations United Nations UniversityUniversity
Millenium ProjectMillenium Project
United Nations United Nations UniversityUniversity
Georgia TechGeorgia TechGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech
George George Washington Washington UniversityUniversity
George George Washington Washington UniversityUniversity
Iale TecnologíaIale TecnologíaIale TecnologíaIale Tecnología
TrizTriz XXI XXITrizTriz XXI XXI
PREST: PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel GodetMichel Godet (2005). WFSF: (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-BaudimentFabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (2004). Millenium Project (UN): (UN): Jerome GlennJerome Glenn (2005-2006). (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech: Alan PorterAlan Porter (2006), George (2006), George Washington University: Washington University: William HalalWilliam Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere EscorsaPere Escorsa (2004- (2004-2005), Triz XXI: 2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel VicenteFernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005) (2005)
PREST: PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel GodetMichel Godet (2005). WFSF: (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-BaudimentFabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (2004). Millenium Project (UN): (UN): Jerome GlennJerome Glenn (2005-2006). (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech: Alan PorterAlan Porter (2006), George (2006), George Washington University: Washington University: William HalalWilliam Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere EscorsaPere Escorsa (2004- (2004-2005), Triz XXI: 2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel VicenteFernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005) (2005)
Consolidation of Infrastructure: Unit for Technological Watch and Competitive
Intelligence Analysis of patents and
science-metric and semantic analysis
Prospective
Internet
RemoteAccess and Safety
Broadening of portfolio of foresight methods and processes
The development of skills has been generated from a process of accumulation of experiences, intellectual production, processes, and methodologies.
The Program has progressively diversified its portfolio of services:
Executes pilot exercises Strategic and demonstrative exercises Sensitivity meetings on foresight and technological
watch designed for companies and conducted with local “strategic partners”
Conferences by invitation only, and Seminars for the Formation of Trainers motivated by the
Program Agenda. During the process new practices have been
introduced
Development of twelve (12) different types of intervention in foresight
Formulation of Strategic Re-orientation of a Program with governmental, institutional, and entrepreneurial participation: National Bio-technology Program
Exploration of a sector and re-direction of a centre for technological development: CIDET – Electrical Sector
Construction of a cluster: Export Health - Valle del Cauca Strategic Orientation of a sub-sector: Lacteous Sector-territorial Orientation: Tourism in Cartagena, Fique (palm fiber)
in Santander Exploration of expert opinion: Colciencias Thematic Areas Development of skills and Agendas I+D+I: Excellence Centers Strategic Re-orientation of a Public Institution: Fomipyme Scenarios of international co-operation: (Andres Bello Accord) CAB –
Scope 2015 Scenario strategies of transition to a Society and Economy based on
Knowledge Demonstrative Exercises: Water (EPM-EAAB) National Plan on Science, Technology, and Innovation 2019
4. Lessons
1st = Collective Learning
State of art International
Networks, Contacts
Expertise and Pluralism Levels of incertitude,
different traditions
Support for the existent infrastructure
Convergent Facts Seminaries, calls,
anchor institutions, materials and adapted
methodologies
Data base of methods, case
studies and tools
Critical Mass, Diffussion
Current Priorities
Construction of a long term vision of the country, and the place of science, technology and innovation in the knowledge economy
Growing support toward strengthening works of the regions
Training of Trainers
Sustainability of priorities in thematic areas and/or productive sectors of strategic interest for Colombia
Fortifying flows, regional clusters : Sector territorial exercises
Construction of regional systems of innovation
Universities and Centres as exchange agents multiplying the scope of the program
5. Conclusions
Tecnological and Industrial Forecast is an excellent institutional opportunity for reflecting on: The future of strategic sectors of the
country The possibilities to transform the
productive structure of the country and, The role of science and technology in such
transformation processes
Conclusions
Unstable environments, incertitudes and high level conflicts require greater use of foresight
Such environments need the development and gathering of capacities as well as the elaboration of progressive learning exercises
Technical profficiency sponsors colaboration. Learning is gained through international cooperation. We have established a wide synergy with international organizations
Foresight is not about predicting!... It is about identifying alternatives. Colombia seeks future alternatives and better decisions!!
Bibliography
Gómez Villasante, David & Bernal, Henry (2004) Plan of Joint Action in Science and Technology of the countries in the Andrés Bello Accord, Technical Commissions, Andrés Bello Accord, Bogotá.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2000) “Function of long-term thought: action and institutional re-dimensioning of the ILPES”, Notes from the ILPES, N. 46.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2001) “Function of long-term thought: significant experiences at the global level”, High-level Seminar on basic functions of planning and successful experiences, Latin American and Caribbean Institute of Economic and Social Planning, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Regional Planning Council, Santiago de Chile.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005a) for a foresight for unstable, uncertain, and highly conflictive environments: The experience of the Colombian Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight. Conference Proceedings the Fistera Conference, IST at the Service of a Changing Europe by 2020: Learning from World Views, European Union - IPTS, 16 -17 June, Seville.
Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005b) Technology with a future vision, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Andina de Fomento, Caracas.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (1997) Foresight: Social construction of the future, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) - Universidad del Valle, Cali.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (2006) Manual on Foresight and strategic decision: Theoretical Bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), Santiago de Chile.
Bibliography
Miles, Ian (2005) Foresight: a long breath path, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Medina Vásquez, Javier & Rincón, Gladys (2006) Technological and industrial foresight: context, fundamentals, and applications, Colciencias–CAF, Bogotá.
Medina Vásquez, Javier & Sánchez, Marcela (2006) Foresight and technological watch: integrated focuses, Colciencias, Bogotá (in process of being published).
Miles, Ian & Popper, Rafael (2004) Recommendations to the Colombian NFP, PREST–Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester.
National Planning Department (2003) Construction of a future for Colombia stemming from its territories, Memories of National Seminar, DNP – UNDP – ACCI – CAF, Bogotá.
Popper, Rafael & Medina, Javier (2006) Foresight in Latin America. Case Studies: Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, in “International Handbook on Foresight and Science Policy: Theory and Practice”; PREST Institute - Edward Elgar (book coming soon).
Sánchez, J. Marcela & Palop, Fernando (2002). Software tools for the practice of Competitive Intelligence in the business place. Ed. Triz XXI. Madrid.
Thank you!
[email protected]@telesat.com.co