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College of Engineering
Discovery with Purpose www.engineering.iastate.edu
January 24, 2011
Introduction to Wind Energy
James McCalley ([email protected])Honors 322W, Wind Energy Honors Seminar
College of Engineering
Overview• Some preliminaries• Background on Wind
Energy in US• Grand challenge questions
2
College of Engineering
Some preliminaries• Power: MW=1341HP.• Energy: MWhr=3.413MMbtu (106btu); 1btu=1055joules• E=P×T• Run 1.5 MW turbine at 1.5 MW for 2 hrs: 3 MWhrs.• Run 1.5 MW turbine at 0.5 MW for 2 hrs: 1MWhrs
3
Power, P Time, T Energy, ECapacity, Prated
T
P(t)dtE0
Time, t
Power, P(t)1.5 MW
8760
8760
0
ratedP
P(t)dt
CF
• If P varies with t: • Capacity factor:
A lawnmower engine is 3HP (2.2kW or 0.0022 MW).Typical car engine is 200 HP (150kw or 0.15MW).Typical home demands 1.2kW at any given moment, on avg. 1MW=106watts106w/1200w=833 homes powered by a MW.Ames peak demand is about 126MW.The US has 1,121,000MW of power plant capacity.
1 gallon gasoline=0.0334MWhr; Typical home uses 11000kWhrs=11MWhrs in 1 year.1 ton coal=6MWhrs.
Actual annual energy production as a percentage of annual energy production at Prated
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in USU.S. Annual & CumulativeWind Power Capacity Growth
Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 4
But what happened in 2010?
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
2010 is different!
Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report 5
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
Percentage of New Capacity Additions.
Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 6
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
US Generation mix
Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 7
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
U.S. Wind Power Capacity By State
8
Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
U.S. Wind Power Capacity By State
9
Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report
Source: AWEA Wind Power Outlook 2010
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
Market share of total 2008 wind installations
Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 10
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
Ownership by company and by regulated utility
Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 11
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
Wind plant size
Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 12
College of EngineeringBackground on Wind Energy in US
29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)
13
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
CA: 33% by 2020
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025☼ MA: 15% by
2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
☼ MD: 20% by 2022
☼ DE: 20% by 2019*
☼ DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states & DC have an RPS
6 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
WV: 25% by 2025*†
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
Tax incentives
• Federal Incentives:• Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA• 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour PTC or 30% investment tax credit (ITC)
• State incentives:• IA: 1.5¢/kWhr for small wind, 1¢/kWhr for large wind• Various other including sales & property tax reductions
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College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in USCongressional bills
15
Waxman-Markey Energy & Climate Bill (House, passed)
Kerry-Graham Climate Bill (Senate)
2012 renewables target 6% of electric energy renewableIn separate bill (Bingaman)
2020 renewables target 20%
2012 Emissions target Cuts by 3% (2005 baseline)
2013 Emissions target Cuts by 4.25% (2005 baseline)
2020 Emissions target Cuts by 17% (2005 baseline) Cuts by 20% (2005 baseline)
2030 Emissions target Cuts by 42% (2005 baseline) 42% (2005 baseline)
2050 Emissions target Cuts by 83% (2005 baseline) 83% (2005 baseline)
Emissions reductions are “economy wide” but there is interest to focus on utilities first, and perhaps only.
College of Engineering
Background on Wind Energy in US
16
College of Engineering
Solar, 0.09
Nuclear, 8.45
Hydro, 2.45
Wind, 0.51
Geothermal 0.35
Natural Gas 23.84
Coal22.42
Biomass 3.88
Petroleum37.13
26.33
8.58
27.39
20.9
Unused Energy
(Losses)57.07
Electric Generation
39.97
12.68
Used Energy42.15
Residential
11.48
Commercial
8.58
Industrial23.94
Trans-portation
27.86
8.45
6.82
20.54
6.95
LightDuty: 17.12QFreight: 7.55QAviation: 3.19Q 17
College of Engineering
US ENERGY USE IS 68% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION
US CO2 EMISSIONS* IS 60% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION
GREENING ELECTRIC & ELECTRIFYING TRANSPORTATION SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM
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* Anthropogenic
College of Engineering
Solar, 1.0
Nuclear, 15
Hydro, 2.95
Wind, 8.1
Geothermal 3.04
Natural Gas 23.84
Old Coal10.42
Biomass 3.88
Petroleum15.13
26.33
8.58
25.7
8.5
Unused
Energy (Losse
s)43.0
Electric Generation
49.72
12.68
Used Energy42.15
Residential
11.48
Commercial
8.58
Industrial23.94
Trans-portation
15.5
15
6.82
20.54
6.95
INCREASE Non-CO2
12Q to 30Q
USE
11Q E
lectric for transportation
4.5Q
19
IGCC, 3
RE
DU
CE
CO
AL
21Q
TO
12Q
REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q15Q LightDuty: 8.56QFreight: 3.75QAviation: 3.19Q 19
College of Engineering
20
Technolgy
ForecastedNERC, 2018
Hi Eff&RenewableUCS (NEMS),
2030
Hi IGCC/CCSNAE, 2035
Hi WindISU, 2035
∆GW Overnight cost
Trillion $
∆GW Overnight cost
Trillion $
∆GW Overnight cost
Trillion $
∆GW Overnight cost
Trillion $
Con Solar 20.4 0.102 238 1.195 - 0 65.5 0.329
PV solar - 0 174 1.051 - 0 58.9 0.356
Nuclear 14.8 0.049 4.4 0.015 100 0.332 60.9 0.202
Wind onshore
229 0.440 670 1.288 350 0.673 630 1.211
Wind offshore
- 0 62 0.239 - 0 80 0.307
Geothrml 0.4 .002 31.8 0.127 - 0 106 0.424
Coal convntnl
19 0.039 red 0 red 0 red 0
IGCC+seq - 0 7 0.024 400 1.400 29.5 0.103
NGCC 107 0.103 - 0 - 0 - 0
Biomass - 0 157 0.591 - 0 - 0
TOTALS 389 0.735 1344 4.516 850 2.405 1031 2.930
College of Engineering
Grand Challenge Question For Energy:
What investments should be made, how much, when, and where, at the national level, over the next 40 years, to achieve a sustainable, low cost, and resilient energy & transportation system?
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College of Engineering
NUCLEAR
GEOTHERMALSOLAR
WindBIOMASS
CLEAN-FOSSIL
Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect?
College of Engineering
Grand Challenges For Wind:1. Move wind energy from
where it is harvested to where it can be used
2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid.
3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues).
4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture.
23
College of Engineering
How to address grand challenges
24
#1. Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used.• Transmission
• National Superhighway at 765 kV AC and/or 600/800 kV DC• Right of way: Rail, interstate highways, existing transmission• Conductor technologies: overhead/underground, materials
• Bulk storage• An energy capacity issue• Pumped storage, compressed air, heat, other novel approaches• A control and coordination problem
College of Engineering
How to address grand challenges
25
College of Engineering
How to address grand challenges
26
#2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accom-modate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid.• Increase geodiversity• Improve forecasting/handling uncertainty in dispatch• Increase gas turbines• Wind turbine control• Load control• Storage
• A power capacity issue• Pumped storage, compressed air, batteries, flywheels• A control and coordination problem
College of Engineering
How to address grand challenges
27
#3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues).• Improve manufacturing and supply chain processes• Enhanced energy extraction from wind per unit land area
• Improved turbine siting• Inter-turbine and inter-farm control• Increased efficiency of drive-train/generator/converters• Lighter, stronger materials and improved control of rotor blades• Taller turbines
• Improve monitoring and evaluation for health assessment and prediction
College of Engineering
How to address grand challenges
28
#4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture.• Migratory birds and bats: mainly a siting issue• Aesthetics: a sociological issue• Agriculture: Agronomists indicate wind turbines may help!
These issues have not been significant yet. Today, in Iowa, there are 2100 turbines, with capacity 3700 MW. At 2 MW/turbine, a growth to 60 GW would require 30000 turbines, and assuming turbines are located only on cropland having class 3 or better winds (about 1/6 of the state), this means these regions would see, on average, one turbine every 144 acres.