ClimWood2030: What is the climate impact of substituting ... · 7/15/2020 · Estelle Vial, Anne-Laure Levet. Rüter et al. (2016) 15/06/2020 page 11 Sebastian Rüter What Climate

15/06/2020page 0 Sebastian Rüter

What Climate Strategy for European Forests – ClimWood2030

ClimWood2030: What is the climate impact of substituting fossil resources with wood-based biomass in EU?

Dr. Sebastian RüterThünen Institute of Wood Research | Work area ‘Impact of Wood Utilization on Environment and Climate’

Webinar by Fern and Canopée15 July 2020

What Climate Strategy for European Forests? Rethinking their contribution to climate neutrality



Thünen Institute of Wood Research | ‘Impact of Wood Utilization on Environment and Climate’

GHG balances of the wood sectorDevelopment of climate protection strategies (forest/wood) for policy, society and industry

Participation in climate talks (UNFCCC) as part of the German delegation (EU IG AFOLU)

Authorship for IPCC (TFI): KP Supplement and 2019 Refinement on Harvested Wood Products (HWP)

Implementation of the national GHG inventory reporting on HWP

Numerous expert statements as part of the government administration (e.g. on draft legislation), research projects and publications regarding the topic

UNFCCC IPCC Thünen NIR

EU / DE



Thünen Institute of Wood Research | ‘Impact of Wood Utilization on Environment and Climate’

Conduction of life cycle assessment of wood products for the use in environmental productdeclarations (EPD) and public databases, e.g. for sustainability assessment of buildings

Participation in Round Table Sustainable Building (Federal Ministry of Interior) developmentof the German federal assessment scheme sustainable building (BNB)

Editor for wood-based building products for the governmental ecologicalbuilding product information system WECOBIS

Expert contact for wooden building products in the governmentalLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) database ÖKOBAUDAT and supply ofrepresentative and standard compliant LCA data

Preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPD)for wood industries (companies and associations)

Member in the European standardization process (CEN) on sustainable building assessment (TC 350)

Research projects and numerous expert statements regarding the topic (federal ministries)



Conceptual & methodological background

‘ClimWood2030’ study commissioned by EU COM DG CLIMA

Further developments and outlook (German forest climate fund project “GHG wood construction”)

Overview



Carbon stock HWPCarbon stock FOREST

ATMOSPHERE

Substitution ENERGETIC USE

Substitution MATERIAL USE

fossil CO2e emissions

Forest growthIndustrial residues &

Semi-finished wood products Finished wood productsEnd of life of material

wood utilizationFuel wood &Industrial roundwood

Slash &Harvest


C sequestration biogenic CO2 emissions

Four GHG-relevant impact mechanisms:

• C-stock in forest pool• C-stock in HWP pool• Material GHG-substitution potential• Energy GHG-substitution potential

Scheme of GHG balance of the forest-based sector



ATMOSPHERE

Biogenic carbon storage effectsConceptual & methodological background

Estimating annual ‘CO2 emissions by sources and their removals by sinks’ from forests and harvested wood products in the sector „Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry “ (LULUCF) on the basis of carbon stock-changes in line with the methodological guidelines provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

C sequestration biogenic CO2 emissions

Carbon stock FOREST Carbon stock HWP



ATMOSPHERE

Fossil CO2e emissions

GHG substitution effects due to different fossil GHG emission budgetsConceptual & methodological background

Fossil GHG emissions of alternative products systems

Substitution potential

Comparison of different product systems along their entire life cycle& estimating their GHG substitution potentials only on the basis ofstandard compliant life cycle assessments (ISO 14040/44, ISO 21930, EN 15804) Functional equivalence of defined product systems is a key requirement LCA results only representative for the selected functional units




Estimating GHG implications of changes in timber supply and/or wood consumption (demand) on the basis of scenarios

Case 1 (higher wood consumption / harvest) results in higher GHG positivesubstitution effects and carbon sink in HWP, but lower sink / higher emissions in forests

now

e.g. 2030

reference/BaUhistoric

scenario 1

scenario 2

forests

Harvest and traded wood

HWPfunctional equivalents (LCA)

pools emissions markets

Case 2 (lower wood consumption / harvest): larger carbon sink in forests, but lower HWP pool and substitution effects


How to merge these different levels of detail, the different methods and sources of data

consistently?




Estimating GHG implications of changes in timber supply and/or wood consumption (demand) on the basis of scenarios

Case 1 (higher wood consumption / harvest) results in higher GHG positivesubstitution effects and carbon sink in HWP, but lower sink / higher emissions in forests

now

e.g. 2030

reference/BaUhistoric

scenario 1

scenario 2

forests

Harvest and traded wood

HWPfunctional equivalents (LCA)

pools emissions markets

Case 2 (lower wood consumption / harvest): larger carbon sink in forests, but lower HWP pool and substitution effects







Overview



…commissioned by EU COM DG CLIMA‘ClimWood2030‘ study

Study on “climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: perspective 2030” Duration: 11/2013 – 11/2015 Study Contract N° 071201/ 2013/664709/ETU/CLIMA.A2

The main objective of the study was to provide reliable data and analysis on the overall climate change mitigation potential associated with the use of forest biomass in the EU to substitute products composed of other raw materials and the potential increase of the carbon stock in harvested wood products (HWP) and forests.

Following aspects had been considered:

Changes in forest carbon pools inside and outside EU (28)

Changes in the harvested wood products (HWP) carbon pool

Effects of material substitution by using more/less wood

Effects of substitution of fossil fuels due to an increased/diminished use of forest biomass, residual wood from industry and post-consumer wood.

Project partners

Sebastian Rüter Nicklas ForsellEstelle Vial, Anne-Laure Levet

Rüter et al. (2016)



…commissioned by EU COM DG CLIMA‘ClimWood2030‘ study

Analysis of GHG implications of five defined scenarios across all levels by means of a consistent model framework

G4M (IIASA/Forsell)Global biophysical model to describe growth anddecay of forest biomass (forest carbon model)

GLOBIOM (IIASA/Forsell)Global economic forest & agriculture equilibriummodel (supply/demand calculations)

WoodCarbonMonitor (Rüter)Country-specific HWP carbon model to estimate emissions/removals and to calculate snapshots

Forest-Based Functional Units Model (Werner)Model to determine displacement factors and indices based on life cycle assessment methodology

WoodCarbonMonitorEmissions/removals from HWP

GLOBIOMTimber supply and trade

G4MEmissions / removals

from forests

FBFU ModelSubstitution



Defined scenarios‘ClimWood2030‘ study

ClimWood2030 reference scenario (I)

based on the official EU Reference scenario, and assuming achievement of official EU energy and climate targets for 2020, with continued business as usual trend until 2030

Increase forest carbon stock in existing EU forests (II)

exploring the consequences of a decision to focus policy on increasing the carbon stock in EU-28 forest, notably by reducing domestic (EU28-wide) harvest rates

Cascade use – increase recovery of solid wood products (III)

exploring the consequences of decisions to encourage cascade use by improving the recovery of solid wood products, for material and energy purposes

Cascade use – prevent first use of biomass for energy (IV)

exploring the consequences of decisions to encourage cascade use by ensuring that wood of sufficient quality and dimensions harvested in EU-28 forests is first used as raw material, and only subsequently as a source of energy

Strongly increase material wood use (V)

exploring the consequences of success in increasing wood consumption in its major markets, especially the construction sector, by innovation, investment and promotion



Substitution potentials (inside EU28 on basis of selected functional units only)

k Energy substitution l Material substitutionl Material substitutionk Energy substitution

Emissions/removals

c Forest emissions/removalsj Emissions/removals from HWPj Emissions/removals from HWPc Forest emissions/removals

GHG relevant parameters that could/can be assessed with the model framework‚ClimWood2030‘ study

ib

jc

l

k

h

gf

e

d

a

WoodCarbonMonitor (2016)Carbon flows

a Gross annual incrementd Harvest for energy usee Harvest for material usef Extra-EU net trade of HWP

and their feedstock (INDRW+, pulp)g Extra-EU net trade of wood for energyh HWP carbon pool inflow

Carbon pools

b Forest carbon pool (inside/outside EU28)

i HWP carbon pool (inside EU28 only)

Calculation of snapshots #1: 2000-2010 (status quo) #2: 2011-2020 #3: 2021-2030



…parameters that could/can be assessed by the model framework‚ClimWood2030‘ study

ClimWood2030 reference scenario (I) (absolute values) Snapshot alternative scenario (relative values)

Reference scenarioAlternative scenario

Material substitution potential

Net emissions from HWP

Reference scenarioAlternative scenario



Extract of results [in Mt CO2e yr-1]

‚ClimWood2030‘ study

Results relative to reference scenario





Results relative to reference scenario

Deviating CO2 emissions/removals

GHG substitution potential










Annual average impact on emissions/removals from EU and non-EU forests

→ Leakage effects (here: only forest carbon pools) are to be considered, when estimating GHG impact on the basis of consistent/unchangeable demand for products (material) and energy (functional equivalence also on scenario level!)




Extract of conclusions‚ClimWood2030‘ study

The ClimWood2030 approach was new and should be widely reviewed and discussed

By means of consistent modelling, different scenarios (i.e. thought experiments) and their GHG implications could be assessed

Relevant policy instruments to achieve the scenarios have been considered

To assess the potential of wood to climate change mitigation, it is important to consider all potential GHG implications

https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn056927.pdf

Wood consumption can and does play a positive role in climate change mitigation

Timing of effects is essential (time frame under study)

Underlying assumptions (e.g. on population growth & expected future demand for energy and services, e.g. buildings) set the framework

Functional equivalence of scenarios & selection of reference case is essential but also ‘the stumbling block’

Linking LCA data (functional units) with market information/assumptions and their relevant statistics (e.g. buildings) is crucial






Overview



Carbon stock HWP

German forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“ (GHG wood constructions)GHG-relevance of wood consumption in building sector

(Laufzeit: 10/2014 – 09/2016 | FKZ: 28W-B-3-054-03)

Estimating the GHG mitigation potential of the utilization of wood by means of scenarios on the basis of LCA data and statistics on building activities

MATERIAL substitution potential

Estimating the material substitution potential of wood use in residential buildings by means of standard conform and representative LCA data (ÖKOBAUDAT database „average DE“)

as well as the associated impact of biogenic carbon storage in HWP

and the demand for raw timber (harvest) with impact on the forest carbon stocks Hafner et al. (2017)


https://wfs.swst.org/index.php/wfs/article/view/2682



Estimation for Germany (Thünen Institute)

Methodological approachGerman forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

Calculation on building level (RUB)

Standard compliant building product LCA datafrom ÖKOBAUDAT (EN 15804)

1. Selection of functional equivalent buildings(GFA, Energy Saving Ordinance-standard, fire protection and sound insulation requirements, thresholds for VOC et al.)

2. Standard-compliant calculation of building LCA (incl. review process acc. to ISO 14044and ISO/TS 14071)

3. Classification types of buildings

1. Calculation of averagesa) Material lists of building products / cost groupsb) LCA results / GBV & GFA

2. Merge with statistics:a) Production & tradeb) Completion of buildings

3. Definition ofa) Reference scenariob) Alternative scenarios

4. Calculation ofa) Raw timber demandb) C-storage effectsc) Substitution effects

LCA „Average DE“ (Thünen Institute)



Building level: GHG mitigation (i.e. substitution) potentialGerman forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

0,56

0,35

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

Subs

titut

ions

fakt

or i

n [k

g CO

2 äq

./kg

CO

2 äq

.]

Wertekorridor

GHG mitigation potential of wooden buildings between 35% und 56%

kg CO2e per m2 GFA* GHG mitigation potential by means of substitution factor

(here EZFH)

Single- & semi-detached houses

77 – 207Multi-family houses

18 – 178

* Gross floor area



THG-Bilanzen der Gebäude ÖKOBAUDAT Datensätze

Holzbauprodukte (Durchschnitt DE) Verbaute Holzmengen nach

Gebäudetyp und Lebenszyklusabschnitt nach Modulen

Verschneidung mit Statistiken

National scale for DE: definition of reference case and alternative scenariosGerman forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

Reference scenario on basis of ‚Housing Market Forecast 2030‘ of the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning(BBSR 2015): Population size, number of households, residential building activity on community level, structural peculiarities of the

German housing market (BBSR-residential building market survey, German Federal Statistical Office and ZENSUS 2011) Regional projection results on the future demand for living space as basis to estimate the future demand for new housing Combination of statistical time series on ‚building completion acc. to main type of building material‘

(Federal Statistical Office 2016) Assumption of a constant building material ratio (Ø 2011 – 2015)

REF

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Definition of alternative scenarios Increased demand for wood in the load bearing construction of new residential

buildings (here: market share up to 55% single/semi-detached and 15% multi-family houses in 2030)



National scale: projected demand for new residential buildings in GermanyGerman forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

based on BBSR (2015)



Abschätzung für DE: Ergebnisse für Szenario ‚55/15 steigend‘German forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

Biogenic CO2 emissions/removals in HWP

Ø 2016-2030:- 0,65 Mt CO2 /yr

∑ 2016-2030:- 9,76 Mt CO2



Abschätzung für DE: Ergebnisse für Szenario ‚55/15 steigend‘German forest climate fund project „THG-Holzbau“

Additional timber demand:

Ø 2016-2030:+1,92 Mm³/yr∑ 2016-2030:+28,7 Mm³

Material GHG substitution potential:

Ø 2016-2030:- 0,78 Mt CO2e/yr

∑ 2016-2030:- 11,7 Mt CO2e Material GHG substitution potential



…based on ClimWood2030 model framework and standard compliant building informationIntended pilot study for Germany

Similar model framework as in EU ClimWood2030 study in combination with detailed information on buildings

WoodCarbonMonitorEmissions/removals from HWP

GLOBIOMTimber supply and trade

G4MEmissions / removals

from forests

Standard compliant LCA data + detailed informationon the use of wood biomass

in the building sector and for energy purposes in Germany

Allows for a consistent calculation of GHG implications of scenarios on the forest carbon pool and trade

Scenarios could include Increased use of wood in the

building sector Increase / decrease of wood use

for energy purposes Assumptions on different forest

management options



Thank you for your attention

Contact:Dr. Sebastian RüterThünen Institute of Wood Research

[email protected] www.thuenen.de


Documents

ClimWood2030: What is the climate impact of substituting ... · 7/15/2020 · Estelle Vial, Anne-Laure Levet. Rüter et al. (2016) 15/06/2020 page 11 Sebastian Rüter What Climate