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André Lucena, Bruno Borba, Roberto Schaeffer, Alexandre Szklo, Pedro Rochedo, Rafael Kelman, Pedro Ávila, Bernardo Bezerra
Climate change impacts on hydropower genera4on in Brazil
IntroducAon – Brazilian Energy System • The Brazilian energy system is highly dependent on
renewable energy, especially hydropower • Renewables accounted for around 40% of primary energy
supply in 2014 – Hydropower was 80% of all electricity producAon in the country in
average over the last ten years – 15% of fuel consumpAon in the transportaAon sector was ethanol in
2014 – Wind energy is sAll low, but has increased sharply over the last few
years (currently 4.8% of total installed capacity)
How is that impacted by future climate change?
Hydrological Seasonality in Brazil (Historical data 1931 – 2009)
Source: Silva (2012)
NaAonal Interconnected System (SIN)
h[p://www.ons.org.br/
Previous Studies on Climate Change Impacts-‐AdaptaAon
What’s new? • Project hired by Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República – Colabora4on COPPE-‐PSR – New scenarios – RCPs 8.5 and 4.5
• MiAgaAon vs. AdaptaAon – New GCMs (HadGEM and MIROC) – StochasAc dispatch modeling
• Research quesAons: – What are the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian Interconnected System?
– What would be the best alternaAves to compensate hydropower loss? • What is the best way to adapt: operaAon vs. expansion?
– To what extent miAgaAon policies may affect these best alternaAves?
Methodology and Results
Climate Change Data • RCPs – 4.5 – 8.5
• GCMs – HadGEM – MIROC
• Dowscaling – ETA: INPE (Chou et al., 2014)
• Hydrological Model – SMAP (water balance model): University of Ceará (MarAns et at., 2014)
Projected Riverflow Brazilian River Basins
Projected Riverflow Brazilian River Basins – Paraná
Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to Itaipu hydropower plant – RCP 8.5 HadGEM MIROC
Projected Riverflow Brazilian River Basins – TocanAns Araguaia
Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to Tucuruí hydropower plant – RCP 8.5 HadGEM MIROC
Projected Riverflow Brazilian River Basins – São Francisco
Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to Sobradinho hydropower plant – RCP 8.5 HadGEM MIROC
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
Opera4on/Expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal cost of operaAon • Deficit probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs • Second order effects
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal cost of operaAon • Deficit probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs • Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
Baseline Scenarios
Baseline scenarios: RCP comparison – Electricity
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW year
Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar
Premisses: RCP 8.5 • BAU expansion – no explicit miAgaAon assumed
RCP 4.5 • Energy efficiency • Lower fossil expansion • 100$/tCO2 Carbon tax aoer 2030 (ETP, 2015)
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal cost of operaAon • Deficit probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs • Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
Results OperaAon: Risk of shortage
HadGEM MIROC
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
Results – OperaAon Costs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Base HadGEM MIROC
Billion
USD
RCP 8.5
Base HadGEM MIROC
RCP 4.5
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal cost of operaAon • Deficit probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs • Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
Results – AdaptaAon RCP 8.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW m
ed
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa Eólica Solar
Results – AdaptaAon RCP 4.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW m
ed
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa Eólica Solar
Results – AdaptaAon Costs
• Accumulated invesAment costs up to 2040: – HadGEM • RCP 4.5: USD 79 billion • RCP 8.5: USD 280 billion
– MIROC • RCP 4.5: USD 3 billion • RCP 8.5: USD 158 billion
Discussion
• Detailed dispatch modeling requires detailed hydrological modeling
• OperaAonal impacts can be severe and costly if there is no adaptaAon through system expansion
• MiAgaAon policies do impact opAmal adaptaAon strategies – AdapAng to a reduced hydropower availability may further increase Brazil’s emissions if no other acAons are taken
– AdaptaAon can be achieved by fossil fuels or by a combinaAon of energy efficiency, renewable energy, etc.
LAMP Climate Policy Scenarios Electricity GeneraAon
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2 price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50% abatement (FF&I)
TWh/year2030
Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2 price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50% abatement (FF&I)
TWh/year
2050
Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
Next Steps
• Second stage of LAMP – impacts/adaptaAon – To what extent a more detailed dispatch analysis is relevant for adaptaAon-‐miAgaAon assessment?
– What are the uncertainAes related to the miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon interacAons? • What is the role of Brazil in a given climate goal? • How will adaptaAon take place in such circumstances?
• JGCRI – impact analysis • Several IAMs looking at miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon – GCAM, TIAM-‐ECN, IMAGE, EPPA, MESSAGE-‐Brazil
Thank you [email protected]