Climate Related Problem at Indramayu

Kusnomo Tamkani and Rizaldi Boer

Dinas Pertanian Indramayu,

Bogor Agricultural University

OUTLINE

• Introduction• Climate Problems

– What is the problem ?– For whom is this a problem ?– Why is this a problem ?– When and how does the problem occur ?

• Impacts– What kinds of data illustrate the problems ?

• Process of Data Collection

NORTH

MIDDLE

SOUTH

Java sea

• Located in north coastal area of West Java with total land area of about 214 thousand hectares

• It has 28 sub-districts and 310 villages

INTRODUCTION

• Land use is dominated by rice paddy field (58%)

• 95% of area has elevation of between 0-3 m a.s.l. and 5% between 3-100 m a.s.l (part of the south region)

• Mean daily temperature is between 26 and 27oC

• Annual rainfall is about 1430 mm with 75 rainy days.

• Population is 1.6 million with growth rate of about 1.6% per annum

Others14%

Forest17%

Agriculture plantation

3%

Fish Ponds

8%

Paddy Field58%

• The main economic activity of Indramayu’s people is agriculture

• About 65% of population depend on this sector. Of this, about 95% engages in rice-based farming system. Mean annual planting area of rice is about 205 thousand ha and total annual production is about 1.2 million ton (Contribute to about 27% of West Java)

• Contribution of agriculture sector to total gross regional domestic product is quite significant

NORTH

MIDDLE

SOUTH

North area is mainly end tail irrigated areas and fish pond, salt mining

Middle area is mainly irrigated areas (dominated by rice)South area is mainly

rainfed areas (upland crops and horticultures)

Contribution of sectors to the total GRDP at Indramayu in 2001

Services13%

Finance, rental & company

services4%

Transporatation & Comm.

8%

Trading, Hotel & Rest. 26%

Buildings2%

Electricity, gas & clean water

2%

Processing Industry

5%

Agric, Livestock, Forestry &

Fishery40%

Mining and Digging

0%

Services5%

Finance, rental & company

services2%

Transportation & Comm. 3%

Trading, Hotel & Rest.10%

Buildings1%

Electricity, gas & clean water

1% Processing Industry

20%

Agric, Livestock, Forestry &

Fishery16%

Mining and Digging

42%

1

With Oil and Gas

Without Oil and Gas

Contribution of agriculture sector to total Gross

Regional Domestic Product is 16% if oil and gas included

and 40% if oil and gas is excluded

Contribution of agriculture sector to total Gross

Regional Domestic Product is 16% if oil and gas included

and 40% if oil and gas is excluded

Climate Related Problems• Flood and Drought are two main climate-related problems in

Indramayu• Rice is the main crop that is severely affected by the two events.• Contribution of the two events to production loss at Indramayu is

about 86%, while due to pest and diseases is 14% (Based on data from 1997-2003)

Flood & Drought

86%

Pest and Diseases

14%

Climate Related Problems• Flood seasons is between January and February (Probability

of occurrence and Drought season between June-August

0

15

30

45

60

75

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Prob

abili

ty (%

)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Average of Drought Area

ProbabilityDrought Area

0

15

30

45

60

75

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Prob

abili

ty (%

)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Average of Flood Area (Ha)

ProbabilityFlood Area

ProblemDelay monsoon: normally caused rice production loss of less than 6000 ton

Early onset of dry season: normally caused rice production loss of more than 150,000 ton

Flood caused rice production loss of more than 60,000 ton

Flood will flush out fish and shrimp to ocean (no yield expected)

Early onset and delay wet and dry season, reduce salt production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Rata-R

ata Curah H

ujan (mm

)

Kab. Indramayu

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Agu Sep

Luas

Tan

am (h

a)

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

Pla

ntin

g A

rea

(ha)

Mean R

ainfall (mm

)

Fish/shrimp culture

Salt mining

Vegetables/upland crops

rice rice Fallow

Flood DroughtDrought

North/Middle

North

North

South upland rice

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400O

kt-

90

Nov-9

0

Dec-9

0

Jan-9

1

Feb-9

1

Mar-

91

Apr-

91

May-9

1

Jun-9

1

Jul-91

Aug-9

1

Sep-9

1

Cu

rah

Hu

jan

(m

m)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Lu

as (h

a)

CH

Tanam

Mea

n R

ainf

all (

mm

)P

lanting Area (ha)

Case-1: Drought development (PS 1990/1991)Problem – early onset of dry season

CH-NormalTerkena

PusoCH Musim Rendeng jauh di bawah normal

CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Okt-

99

Nov-9

9

Dec-9

9

Jan-0

0

Feb-0

0

Mar-

00

Apr-

00

May-0

0

Jun-0

0

Jul-00

Aug-0

0

Sep-0

0

Cu

rah

Hu

jan

(m

m)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Lu

as (h

a)

CH

Tanam

Planting A

rea (ha)

Mea

n R

ainf

all (

mm

)

Case-2: Flood Development (PS 1999/2000) ~ Rainfall in January was far above normal

CH-Normal

Terkena

Puso

CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall

Impact of Drought on Status of Family Welfare

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Nu

mb

er o

f H

ou

seh

old

Pra KS KS I KS II KS III KS IV-up

Income Status

2001

2003

2001

Pra KS34%

KS I21%

KS II25%

KS III15%

KS IV-up5%

2003

Pra KS37%

KS I32%

KS II18%

KS III10%

KS IV-up3%

Severe floods and Severe floods and drought will increase drought will increase

number ofnumber ofPra-KS: Case in 2003, Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact the devastating impact of drought (long dry of drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in

2002-2003 increase the 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS by about 14% (Pra-KS

and KS1)and KS1)

Severe floods and Severe floods and drought will increase drought will increase

number ofnumber ofPra-KS: Case in 2003, Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact the devastating impact of drought (long dry of drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in

2002-2003 increase the 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS by about 14% (Pra-KS

and KS1)and KS1)

Why is the problem ?

• There was no early warning system for drought and flood

• Climate forecast was not used to anticipate the events due to no knowledge in using climate forecast information

• Farmers planted rice paddy in area which were not recommended (outside of area which not scheduled to receive irrigation water)

• High sediment in the downstream (river) and poor maintenance of the drainage system

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

IMPACT

1997

Crop Failure due to flood and drought

0

5000

1000015000

20000

25000

30000

3500040000

45000

5000019

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Flo

od

or

Dro

ug

ht

Are

a (h

a) Flood

Drought

Total area destroyed by drought increased significantly in El-Nino years. Total area destroyed by flood was much less than that by drought

Other Impact of El-Nino events on agriculture production • In addition to rice, Indramayu is also known as Mango City.

– Population of Mango tree more than 860.000 trees– Average annual production was about 35.000 tons– Potentially, one mango tree could produce 400 kg/tree/annum– During El-Nino years, Mango production and the quality normally

increased.– It was estimated in El-Nino years, annual production could increase up to

15% ~ 40.000 tons but the price normally decreased• El-Nino also affect either upstream or downstream agribusiness activities

– Agriculture inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides can not be absorbed– Many agriculture machines such as hand tractors, rice mills were not

operated. Some farmers get income from renting the hand tractors.– Income and purchasing power of farmers decreased significantly ~ may

affect economy of Indramayu as a whole

Data Collection Process

Head of Village

All agriculture data, damaged data, refugees number, etc

Head of Sub Districts

Extension Workers

Local Agency for extension

Pest and Diseases Observer/ Head of Agriculture Section/

Head of Statistic Section

Raksabumi (Water and agriculture)Lebe (Welfare), Lurah Polisi (Security)

Task Force for Refugees and Hazards

District OfficesDistrict

Offices

REGENT

GOVERNOR

NATIONAL

Task Force for Refugees and Hazards

Task Force for Refugees and Hazards