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Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives. Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives. PHYC 40050 Peter Lynch Meteorology & Climate Centre School of Mathematical Sciences University College Dublin. Lecture 8. Climate Change and Wind Energy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Climate, Climate ChangeNuclear Power and the
Alternatives
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
PHYC 40050
Peter Lynch
Meteorology & Climate CentreSchool of Mathematical Sciences
University College Dublin
Climate, Climate ChangeNuclear Power and the
Alternatives
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Climate Change and Wind Energy
[Based in part on PhD work of Paul Nolan]Supervisor: Peter Lynch
Lecture 8
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Overview
Greenhouse gas emissions are having a significant effect on the Earth’s climate.
Globally, the 11 of the 12 warmest years on record were in the 1990s and 2000s.
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Temperatures in Ireland have mirrored this global trend
Changes in the wind climatology are expected
New increased target of 40% of electricity from renewable resources by 2020
It is vital to model the impact of climate change on future wind patterns over Ireland.
Overview
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
• 50 year world outlook: context population stablized or declining, oil and gas running out, coal restricted, nuclear?
• Nearer term oil limited to transport sector
• Global energy demand and resources of renewables available.
Wind Energy – the next 50 years
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
USA W Europe China India
kWh/person.year
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Carbon Emissions per Capita, Top TenEmitting Nations, 1996
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
U.S. Canada Germany Russia U.K. Japan S. Korea Italy China India
Compiled by Worldwatch Institute
Ton
s C
arbo
n pe
r P
erso
n
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
ESTIMATED LAND WIND RESOURCES
The world’s wind resources are about 53,000 TWh/year.
Australia 3,000North America 14,000 Latin America 5,400Western Europe 4,800Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union 10,600Rest of Asia 4,600Africa 10,600
Ref: Windforce 12 GreenpeaceSource: Wind resources from Michael Grubb and Niels Meyer, 1994
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Onshore Wind Farm
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Onshore Wind Farm
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Offshore Wind Farm
Arklow Bank
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Typical wind field over Europe
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
European average wind power generation between 1965 and 1998, over 60 well-
distributed sites
Ref: G.Giebel
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Typical 24 hour Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
29-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 5-Oct 7-Oct 9-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct
Po
we
r [M
W]
24hr Forecast Actual
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
The Wind Supergrid
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Wind versus Nuclear Costs
Wind On land:Range 30 euro1 to 80 euro2 per MWh
Wind Offshore:Range 90 euro3 to 110 euro per MWh
Nuclear43 euro4 and 54.3 euro5 per MWh
Stern Review: 58 to 52 euroSustainable Development Commission, UK: 33.9 to 51.6 euro
References1. Airtricity US 4. UK Energy Review July 2006 Nuclear
Cost Benefit2. Germany 5. UK Energy Review Synthesis of Cost
Benefit Analysis July 20063. Current North Sea
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
• The impact of greenhouse gases on climate change can The impact of greenhouse gases on climate change can be simulated using Global Climate Modelsbe simulated using Global Climate Models
• The typical resolution of Global models is 50km or The typical resolution of Global models is 50km or greatergreater
Global Modelto Regional Model
• We are using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the coarse information from the global models.
Modelling the Winds
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
The IPCC Green house Gas Emission Scenarios
Total global annual CO2 emissions from all sources from 1990 to 2100 (in gigatonnes of carbon (GtC/yr))
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
– 90*94 grid boxes → resolution of 7 km
– Global → CLM 18km → CLM 7km– Wind fields output every hr– 32 vertical levels– Validation run:
ERA-40; 1981-2000– Future Projections:
ECHAM 2021-2060 A1B
CLM Experiment Setup
CLM Model Domain
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
CLM Setup
The CLM 7km simulations were run on the The CLM 7km simulations were run on the ‘Stokes’ Linux cluster at the Irish Centre ‘Stokes’ Linux cluster at the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC)for High-End Computing (ICHEC)
Each compute node has two Intel Xeon Each compute node has two Intel Xeon E5462 quad-core processors and 16GB of E5462 quad-core processors and 16GB of RAM.RAM.
See See http://www.ichec.iehttp://www.ichec.ie
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Validation of the CLM Regional Climate Model
• The CLM was validated by The CLM was validated by performing a 20-year climate performing a 20-year climate simulation (1981-2000)simulation (1981-2000)
• ERA-40 and ECHAM5 ERA-40 and ECHAM5 boundary data were usedboundary data were used
• We compared the results We compared the results with observations and ERA-with observations and ERA-40 data 40 data
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
• At each grid point At each grid point (i,j)(i,j) we fit a Weibull we fit a Weibull distributiondistribution
Weibull Distribution
0,),,0[)( 1
xforexxWx
Birr Observatory:
Buoy 60kmWest of Galway
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
CLM Validation at Casement Station (1981-2000)
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Observed Wind Rose at Casement Station (1981-2000)
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
Location of Casement Station
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
CLM Validation at Casement Station (1981-2000)
Observed CLM ERA 18km
CLM ERA 7km CLM ECHAM5 7km
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
RCA Future Climate Projections 2021-2060ANNUAL (A1B, A2, B1 & B2) Scenarios
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
CLM Future Climate ProjectionsWinter A1B Scenario (2021 – 2060)
% Change in 60m Mean Wind Speed % Change in 60m Mean Wind Power
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
RCA Future Climate Projections 2021-2060Winter (A1B, A2, B1 & B2) Scenarios
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
CLM A1B Scenario Winter Projections:Probability of wind speeds between 4m/s and 25m/s
Past Future
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
RCA A2 Scenario Winter Projections:Probability of wind speeds between 4m/s and 25m/s
Past Future
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
The method of Regional Climate Modelling was used to simulate The method of Regional Climate Modelling was used to simulate the wind climatology of Ireland at high spatial resolution. the wind climatology of Ireland at high spatial resolution.
The models were validated by performing past simulations of the The models were validated by performing past simulations of the Irish climate and comparing the results to observations. Irish climate and comparing the results to observations.
Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period downscaling for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-20602021-2060
Results show an overall increase in mean wind speeds for the Results show an overall increase in mean wind speeds for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months.future winter months and a decrease during the summer months.
The projected changes for summer and winter were found to be The projected changes for summer and winter were found to be statistically significant over most of Ireland. statistically significant over most of Ireland.
Summary & Conclusions
PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics
End of Lecture 8