Climate Change - UNEP

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Climate change and the forestry sector: where are we now?

Presentation by UNEP - Mr Jaco Tavenier

Istanbul 20 September 2010

UNECE/FAO meeting Specialists on Forest Policy in

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

1



Overview

1- Climate Change : facts, science, causes and impacts

2- International climate change policy framework

3- Mitigating climate change (focus on forestry sector)

4- Sources of financing to address climate change with focuson the forestry sector



Climate Change Science, Causes and

Impacts

1



The Climate Change Challenge in a Nutshell

Average temperature of the earth has risen by 0.74 degrees

Celsius since 1900 Expected to rise by about 4 o C by mid-century if no action is

taken

Temperature rise results in extreme weather events andimpacts (e.g. flooding, droughts, sea level rise, etc.)

Human action mainly responsible for observed and projectedclimate change

Risk of major economic and social disturbances particularly indeveloping countries

Swift action required to:� Reduce the causes of climate changes (mitigation)

� Prepare for the impacts of climate change (adaptation)

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1



What is the Greenhouse Effect?




Complexity of the Global Climate System




Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Caused by Humans

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) CFC·s




Globally averaged CO2 concentration at the

surface.



Majors Sectors Emitting Greenhouse

Gases


Source: IPCC



Examples of Observed Climate Change

Floods: The frequency of floods hasincreased by nearly 300% in the past30 years

Droughts/heat waves: The mostextreme three heat waves/droughts in50 years occurred in Europe in 2003,Australia in 2009 and China in 2010

Extreme events/storms: Storms,

including hurricanes have beenmeasured to have increased intensitysince the 1980s


Source: UNEP



Observed Impact: Changes in Physical and

Biological Systems




Projected Impact on Ecosystems

Biodiversity: decreases in the Amazon rainforest will

lead to loss of species

Protective function: loss of mangrove forests leave

coastal regions vulnerable to storm surges Loss of habitat: warming temperatures on mountains

mean climatic habitats shift in altitude

Agriculture: Loss of productivity as crops fail in warmer

temperatures mean that between 5 million and 170million additional people are predicted to be at riskof hunger by 2080

Freshwater: Less security of water supply as moredroughts and less rain occurs




Projected Impact on Forests (Europe)

Forest area is expected to expand in the north,

decreasing the current tundra area by 2100, but

contract in the south;

Native conifers are likely to be replaced by deciduoustrees in Western and Central Europe;

The distribution of a number of typical tree species is

likely to decrease in the Mediterranean;

Tree vulnerability will increase aspopulations/plantations are managed to grow outside

their natural range




Projected Impact on Forests (Europe)

cont«

In northern Europe, climate change will substantially increase net

primary productivity (NPP) and biomass of forests;

In the northern and maritime temperate zones and at higher

elevations in the Alps, NPP is likely to increase. However, by theend of the century in continental Central and Southern Europe, NPP

of conifers is likely to decrease due to water limitations and higher

temperatures;

Negative impacts of drought on deciduous forests are also likely;

Abiotic hazards for forest are likely to increase, although

expected impacts are regionally specific.




Economic Implications of Climate

Change


Climate change could cost from 5 to 20 percent of globalGDP if no action is taken. Source: Stern Report, 2006

Costs arise from preventing, preparing for and repairingthe damage from climate change impacts

Industries particularly affected� Timber

� Fisheries� Tourism

� Travel

� Agriculture



International Climate Change Policy

Framework

1



The Growing Importance of Climate Change

T

erritorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

´Climate change, and how we address this issue, is a

defining issue of our era.µ

Ban Ki-moon, Secretary General of the United Nations, 2007

´The battle against climate change can not be won without theworld·s forests - this is now clear·

Ban Ki-moon, 2009



The Need for a Global Approach to

Address Climate Change


Climate change is a global problem that requiresglobal solutions

GHG emission contribute to climate change

irrespective of their origin Majority of countries will be negatively affected if

no action is taken

Need for a (new) global regime to� Regulate global reduction of GHG emissions

� Provide support to developing countries to adapt toclimate change

�

Create a sustainable development path in all countries



What is the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)?

First international framework agreement governingglobal efforts to combat CC

Complemented by a protocol specifying details

(Kyoto Protocol) Entered into force in 1994

Currently has 194 Parties: 193 States and 1 regionaleconomic integration organization (EU)

Objective: to stabilize the greenhouse gas (GHG)concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that wouldprevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with theclimate system«..µ




Two-Track Approach under the Convention


Mitigation

�Actions taken to cut net emissions

of greenhouse gases to reduce

climate change

Adaptation

�

Actions taken to help in copingwith changing climate conditions

and impacts

Source: UNITAR

Source: UNEP



What is the Kyoto Protocol?


Strengthens the UNFCCC by providing detailedtargets and timelines for GHG emission reductions

Adopted in 1997; entered into force in 2005

Will expire in 2012 192 Parties (191 States and 1 regional economic

integration organization (EU))

Key concepts:

Legally binding reductions in GHG emissionsestablished only for industrialized countries;

Developing countries are exempt of GHG emissionsreductions (Non-Annex I Parties)



Mitigation Commitments of industrialized

countries


Industrialized countries (Annex B KP) shall

individually or jointly:

�Reduce their emissions by at least 5 % below 1990

levels by the 2008 to 2012 period

Reduction of Emissions: key categories

� Energy

� Industrial processes, solvent and other product use

�Agriculture

� Land use change and forestry

�Waste



The 3 Kyoto Mechanisms


Three Kyoto Mechanisms create flexibility for emissionreductions1. Emission Trading ² known as ´the carbon marketµ

2. Joint Implementation (JI)

3. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Basic concept and rationale

� Emission reduction can be more cost-effective in somecountries/facilities than others

� Creates potential for market exchange and win-winsituations

Designed to boost the cost-effectiveness of mitigation



Further obligations of industrialized countries


Responsibility to provide additional financial

resources to developing countries

Assist particularly vulnerable developing countries

to meet costs of adaptation

Facilitate the transfer of climate-friendly

technologies



Commitments of All Parties (industrialized and

non industrialized)

Develop national inventories of greenhouse gasemissions

Formulate mitigation and adaptation measures

Cooperate in technology transfer Promote sustainable development

Take into account climate changeconsiderations into development planning

Promote and cooperate in research

Cooperate in information exchange

Promote and cooperate in education, training

and public awareness Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1



Key Elements of 2009 Copenhagen Accord


Global commitment to keep temperature increase below 2°C

Emission reduction

� Submission of commitments of all Parties

� Voluntary action by LDC and SIDS on basis of support

provided Principle financial commitments from developed countries� USD 30 billion for period of 2010-2012� USD 100 billion a year by 2020� New additional funding for REDD+

Technology transfer and forestry support� Recognition of REDD to allow mobilization of financial

resources from developed countries

� Establishment of a Technology Mechanism



The Path to COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico


October 2010: 4-9 AWG sessions in Tianjin, China

Cancun, Mexico, 29 Nov -10 Dec 2010

� 16th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 16)

� 6th COP Serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the KyotoProtocol (CMP 6)



Mitigation options for the forestry sector

Mitigating Climate Change

1



What is Climate Change Mitigation?


Mitigation is any actions that cuts

net emissions of greenhouse gases

by:

� reducing sources of greenhousegases

� Increasing sinks of greenhouse

gases

Includes but is not limited to

technological, political, structural

or financial action

Source: FAO



The Forestry Sector: deforestation and

climate change


Deforestation results in the release of the carbon stored in

trees as CO2 emissions. It is estimated it contributed

globally to approximately 20 % of annual GHG emissions

in the 1990s.

Source: FAO



How forest related activities can reduce GHG

emissions?


1. Establishing, enhancing or protecting forests ecosystems.

2. Managing forests in a sustainable way:a. Management for conservation (prevent emissions)

b. Management for storage (short-term measures over the next 50years )

c. Management for substitution (long-term measures).

3. Sustainable producing wood fuel from forests, which can displacefossil fuels.



Mitigation measures applicable to Forestry sector


Maintaining or increasing forest area� Increase plantations (wood energy)

� Eliminate illegal logging

Maintaining or increasing site carbon density

Promote voluntary certification schemes forsustainable forest management

Increasing off site carbon stocks in woodproducts and enhancing product and fuel

substitution Monitoring vulnerable forest areas

(avoiding forest fires and pest attacks)

Source: Scientific American



Co-Benefits Resulting from Mitigation in

the Forestry Sector


Enhanced diversity of energy mix and energy

supply security

Improved local employment, e.g. through

decentralized energy production and development

of the forestry industry

Improved local industrial development Better use of the ecosystem services provided by

forests



UN REDD Programme: Reducing Emissions from

Deforestation and Forest Degradation


Seeks to create a financial value for the carbon storedin forests

Offers incentives for developing countries to reduceemissions from forested lands and invest in low-

carbon paths to sustainable development The REDD Fund contains over 74 million US dollars

for forest projects

REDD+ projects can include:� Preventing deforestation and forest degradation

� Conservation of forests� Sustainable management of forests

� Enhancement of forest carbon stocks



Sources of Financing to Address Climate

Change in the Forestry Sector

1



Overview of Sources to Finance Climate

Action


1. National and Sub-national

Budgets (public)

2. Multilateral Funds and OfficialDevelopment Aid (ODA) (public)

3. Market-Based Mechanisms /

Carbon Financing (public /

private)4. Private Funds

Source: Fotolia



1.National and Sub-National Budgets


Tax incentives to promote certain investments

Support for research and development

(e.g. for new technology)

Loan guarantees for private investment

Funding of basic infrastructure development (e.g.

transport)

Feed-in tariffs, etc.



2. Multilateral Funding and Official

Development Aid

UN:

A. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol (GEF administered)i. GEF funding under UNFCCC ² climate change focal area

ii. GEF Trust Fund - Strategic Priority on Adaptation

iii. Special Climate Change Fund (UNFCCC, 2001)iv. Least Developed Countries Fund (UNFCCC, 2001)

v. Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund (KP, 1997)

B. UN Funds and Programmes

Multilateral Financial Institutions (Multilateral DevelopmentBanks (MDBs)

Bilateral Development Aid Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1



Global Environment Facility (GEF)


Established in October 1991 to assist in the protection of the globalenvironment and to promote environmental sustainable development

Provides grants for projects related to six focal areas: biodiversity,climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone

layer, and persistent organic pollutants

Designated financial mechanism for several multilateralenvironmental agreements (MEAs) including

Conventions like CBD, UNFCCC, UNCCD & Stockholm Convention onPersistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)

Governing bodies of the GEF (GEF Council and the GEF Assembly)receive guidance from MEAs



Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)


Long-term adaptation measures (top priority)

A catalyst to leverage additional resources frombilateral and other multilateral sources

T

he SCCF has four different windows:1. Adaptation

2. Transfer of technologies

3. Energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry,and waste management

4. Activities to assist developing countries whoseeconomies are highly dependent of fossil fuels andassociated energy-intensive products in diversifyingtheir economies



Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund

Financed mainly by 2% levy on

Clean Development Mechanism credits

Expected total amount by 2012:

USD260 million ² USD400 million In May 2010: USD 96 million

Plus Euro 45 million from Spain

Projects must be submitted through agencies accredited by theAF Board, national or multilateral (WB, UNDP) ² more or less

than USD1 million

Operational policies and Guidelines


Source: dfid.gov.uk)



Multilateral Development Banks


MDBs include

�World Bank

� Regional Development Banks

African Development Bank

Asian Development Bank

European Bank for Reconstruction

and Development

Inter-American Development

Bank Group



The Forest Investment Programme - FIP

(World Bank)


The FIP supports developing countries· efforts to reduce deforestation

and forest degradation (REDD) and promotes sustainable forest

management that leads to emission reductions and the protection of

carbon reservoirs.

It achieves this by providing scaled-up financing to developing countries

for readiness reforms and public and private investments, identified

through national REDD readiness or equivalent strategies.

FIP investments also mainstream climate resilience considerations and

contribute to multiple co-benefits such as biodiversity conservation,

etc« Source: World Bank



Bilateral Climate Change Funds


Dedicated funds established by

a country/group of countries to

support Non-Annex 1 countries

in implementing the globalclimate change regime

Usually managed directly by the

country which provided the

financing



3. Market Mechanisms and Carbon

Markets


Market mechanisms and carbon markets place

financial value on the reduction of GHG

GHG reduction may take place in any country (Annex

1 or Non-Annex 1)

Carbon Financing Schemes under the UNFCCC/Kyoto

Protocol

�

Joint Implementation� Emission Trading

� Clean Development Mechanism



Potential of the Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM)


CDM is a market mechanism under the Kyoto protocol toencourage mitigation

Allows countries with emission-reduction commitments under theKyoto Protocol to implement an emission-reduction project indeveloping countries concrete examples««..

Funding is provided by the Annex I country Projects must provide emission reductions that wouldn·t

normally occur Approved CDM project can earn saleable certified emission

reduction (CER) credits

´The CDM enables sustainable development projects indeveloping countries that reduce emissions or enhance sinks

through afforestation or reforestation.µ ² UNFCCC



Examples of Joint Implementation

JI projects might involve, for example,

Fossil fuel switch replacing a coal-fired power plant

with a more efficient combined heat and power

plant

Landfill gas projects (61)

Wind energy (31)

Afforestation/reforestation (1)

Source: UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development (URC)



Number of JI projects by type in %

Graph shows that renewables & CH4 take most of

the projects, whereas afforestation is only 0.3 %



Host country for JI projects, number of projects and

kERUs (September 2010)

http://www.cdmpipeline.org/ji-projects.



Climate change and the forestry sector: where are we

now?

More information onhttp://ji.unfccc.int/JI_ Projects/

http://www.cdmpipeline.org/ji-projects.htm#1

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Climate Change - UNEP