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Climate Change Science Underpinning Adaptation
Ralph Trancoso,Jozef Syktus,
David Arhens,Nathan Toombs,Kenneth Wong,
Ramona Dalla Pozza.
Global climate models typically use a grid cell size of 100-200km so they will project the same climate for any place within a given grid cell up to 200 km across, without reference to local conditions.
Global climate models attribute the same climate to a large extent ignoring local topography and sea-land contrasts due to coarse spatial resolution limitations.
GayndahMin Temp: 14.5 ˚CMax Temp: 28.7 ˚CPrecipitation: 676 mm
BundabergMin Temp: 16.4 ˚CMax Temp: 26.7 ˚CPrecipitation: 1017 mm
Downscaling GCMs to provide climate change projections at regional scale
In order to improve local climate simulations, a smaller grid cell size is required, which is done through a process called downscaling. With recent advancements in computation we can now simulate future climate with higher spatial resolution state-wide.
By improving spatial resolution, regional climate models better simulate local climate. Sea-land distinction and topography-driven processes like orography are clear advantages.
sea-land contrast
Orographic precipitation
GayndahMin Temp: 14.5 ˚CMax Temp: 28.7 ˚CPrecipitation: 676 mm
BundabergMin Temp: 16.4 ˚CMax Temp: 26.7 ˚CPrecipitation: 1017 mm
Precipitation
Potential evaporation
Humidity
Temperature
1980
2099
1980
2099
1980
2099
1980
2099
Emergency services
Built environmentand infrastructure
Agriculture
Human healthand wellbeing
Industry and resources
Small and medium business
Tourism
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Bridging the gap between regional projections and policy needs
Bias correction
Heatwaves
Extreme temperature
Extreme rainfall
DroughtsSummary statistics
Time-series
Interactive maps
Customised reports
Interactive plots
Animations & infographs
Data access
Trends in heatwave characteristics from observations (1945-2014)
Trends in heatwave characteristics within Queensland (1945-2014)
Trends in heatwave characteristics within SEQ (1945-2014)
Trends in heatwave characteristics within Queensland from climate simulations (1981-2098)
Continuous projections for heatwaves within Queensland State (1981-2098)
Long-term steady state shifts in heatwave characteristics within Queensland (1986-2098)
Heatwaves: a summary of observations and projections for SEQ
More frequent
Longer lasting
Providing quality data for decision making
Queensland Future Climate Dashboard
• Fully interactive online platform to provide climate change simulations at regional scale
• 6 climate themes
• 30 variables
• Calendar seasons, wet and dry periods and
• 5 regional divisions with spatially aggregated data
• Support to local and regional planning, biodiversity and water management and emergency services
Screen temperatureMaximum temperatureMinimum temperatureRainfallPotential evapotranspirationHumiditySurface windRadiation
Heatwave frequencyHeatwave durationTemperature of heatwave amplitudeNumber of days with Tmax > 40 ˚C
Hot daysHot nightsCold nightsWarm spell durationCold spell duration
Maximum 1-day precipitationExtremely wet day precipitationSimple daily intensityConsecutive dry daysConsecutive wet days
Drought frequencyDrought durationDrought timing
Capture plots as PDF
Capture plots as PNG
Get raw data matrix as CSV
Get raw data matrix as XML
Zoom inZoom out
Zoom to full extentShow/hide grid borders
Capture map as PDFCapture map as JPEG
Set transparency
Capture dashboard as pdf
Download shapefile
Show/hide model averages
Show/hide models rangeShow/hide individual models
Click on a region to see regional stats
Click on plot elements to see raw data matrix
Interactive plot control
Griddedand vector
datasets
Time-series
Customized reports
Summary statistics
WHAT?Which data?
WHERE?Which location?
WHO?Which users?
TERN (netcdf),dashboard (shapefile)
Climatologists, hydrologists, spatial modellers and other spatial data specialists
dashboardOther non-spatial scientists, statisticians and high skilled data analysis people
dashboardFarmers, stakeholders, decision-makers, managers
dashboardGeneral public, general stakeholders
Climate change projections data access
Dat
a co
mp
lexi
ty
Future climate data
Risk
Assets
Water supply
Grazing
Cropping
Biodiversity
Infectious diseases
Tourism
Epidemiologic models
Species distribution
models
Hydrological models
Plant growth models
Economic model
Industry
Climate models do not answer all the questions
Website as a tool to bridge climate science and policy
Future projects
1. Regional climate change reports and time-series in the website;
2. Fire weather indices, droughts and floods refinement and storm surges;
3. Shifts in recurrence interval (Annual Exceedance Probabilities) of significant past events under future climate change;
4. Water security risk under future climate change;
5. Shifts in tropical cyclone intensity under future climate change.
