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Climate Change in the ABPU region (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay): Threats and opportunities

Ernesto F. Viglizzo

Introduction Climate change is overwhelming the planet and demands sensible decisions from the international community. Twenty years ago, there were so many scientific certainties regarding this. Today climate change is considered a full scientific truth and must be faced accordingly. The implications of climate change are cause of increasing concern within the scientific community. Facts are occurring at a rate faster than those that science predicted, and most countries do not seem to be properly prepared to undertake the challenge. Nor the southern cone of South America will escape from its consequences, and new threats as well as new opportunities raises for the region. The implications go beyond national boundaries and should necessarily be addressed under a regional view. A common regional strategy is needed to jointly prevent negative impacts and take advantage of positive opportunities that will open. The evidence suggests that some South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay (ABPU region) will play a key role in global food security. The challenge should be addressed through a common strategy to face the challenge. Climate change is one of the various critical issues that should be handled on regional basis, not only to be aware of regional vulnerabilities, but also to jointly resolve basic problems such as adaptation and mitigation. The following GPS analysis on climate change in the ABPU region is essentially based on the information released by the recent 5th IPCC Report (2014) and other sources. The following report is divided in four main sections: i) global issues on climate change; ii) vulnerability of ABPU region to climate change; iii) adaptation options; iv) mitigation strategies; v) a call for global common sense. Climate change: ten concerning global issues The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most influential organization that undertakes one of the most concerning issues of the global community nowadays: global warming and climate change. As it happens in previous reports, key issues in its 5th Report (2014) were based on recent scientific findings. Ten outstanding statements in the IPCC 5th Report are the following:

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(1) Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. (2) Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over the millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. (3) Anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since the beginning of the industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) that are unprecedented in at least the last 800 000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century. (4) Projections of GHG emissions vary over a wide range, depending on both socioeconomic development and climate policy, but their warming effect will last beyond the current century. (5) Changes in many extreme weather and climate-dependent events have been observed since the 1950s. Some of these changes include a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions (see Figure 1).

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(6) Continued emission of GHG will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in GHG emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks. (7) Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise. (8) Many associated impacts may continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases. (9) Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities at all levels of development. (10) Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades can smooth the climate risks in the 21st century and beyond, increase prospects for effective adaptation, reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term, and contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development. Effective decision making must recognize the importance of governance, ethical dimensions, equity, value judgments, economic assessments and diverse perceptions and responses to risk and uncertainty.

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Vulnerability of ABPU region to climate change The ABPU region shows a large variety of agro-eco-climatic areas and gradients, which change rapidly in response to climate, land-use and development changes. Poor rural communities are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. This is a concerning issue because poverty is still decreasing slowly despite what is declaimed by populist governments in the region. On the other hand, grain crops, beef production and bio-fuel crops are quickly expanding at the expense of natural and traditional grazing areas. Thus, climate change, human activities and policy decisions are subjecting the region to a highly dynamic scenario. Based on an extensive literature review, a recent report from Magrin et al. (2014) highlights observed changes in climatic and other environmental factors in very relevant areas of South America. A vast amount of evidence demonstrates that extreme climatic events have sharply increased during the last decades in the Southern Cone of South America (see Figure 2). The vulnerability of the region can be summarized as follows: 1) Considering both Central and South America, 613 weather and climate extreme events between 2000 and 2013 have led to 13,883 fatalities and 53.8 million people affected, with estimated losses of US$ 52.3 billion.

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2) Increases in warm days and nights are occurring in most countries of South America, and frequent and intense rainfall extremes have increased. In mountain areas, deforestation has intensified the process of land degradation, increasing the vulnerability of communities to floods and landslides. 3) Changes in weather and climatic patterns are negatively affecting human health in Central and South America through the emergence of diseases in previously non-endemic regions. Increase in the frequency and extension of dengue fever, yellow fever, and malaria is recorded in some vulnerable areas. Multiple factors intensify the region’s vulnerability to climate change in poor rural areas: precarious health systems, malnutrition, inadequate water provision and sanitation services, population growth, deficient wastecollection and treatment, and air and water pollution. Climate change and climate variability may exacerbate future risks to health. 4) Vulnerability in terms of water supply in semi-arid zones is expected to increase. A warmed scenario will affect water supply in large cities and small communities, but also the hydropower generation of electricity. What trends are evident nowadays and are likely to increase over coming decades? An increasing warming trend during the last century was recorded throughout the ABPU region and will consolidate in the middle term. The expansion of pastures and croplands is expected to continue, particularly due to the increasing food and biofuel demand. It is expected that deforestation and agricultural expansion will continue at a decreasing rate in Amazonia, North Eastern Brazil and Southeastern areas of South America. It is highly likely that insect vectors of tropical diseases will expand their habitat to subtropical and temperate areas of South America. Other climate-dependent events such as rainfall, runoff, floods and droughts will show frequent ups and downs across time. In Amazonia extreme droughts were reported in 2005 and 2010, and severe floods were recorded in 2009 and 2012. The Amazonian forests tend to show a strong interaction between deforestation, fire and drought, potentially leading to losses of carbon storage and change in the regional precipitation patterns and river discharge (Davidson et al., 2012). The Amazon River showed marked flows variability during the last two decades. There are worrying signs of a transition from a wet in NW to a drought-dominate regime in SE Amazon basin. This transition to drier conditions has led to the hypothesis of the “savannization” of the Amazon, which is an expansive encroachment of the tropical forest by vegetation typical of the cerrado (Silvério et al., 2013). See Figure 3. Because of air circulation patterns in the Southern Cone, it is argued that the decrease of forest evapotranspiration in Amazonia will reduce the rainfall regime in Southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and NE of Argentina (García-Carreras and Parker, 2011).

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A slight tendency to reduce rainfall, runoff and rivers and streams flows has been recorded in North Eastern Brazil since the middle of 1970s, and the risk of drought is likely to increase in the middle term. Episodes of extreme drought affected this region in 2012–2013. As a consequence, agricultural productivity could decrease in the short term threatening the food security of the poorest population. But on the contrary, increases in precipitation were recorded in Southeastern South America, mainly the so-called South American Pampas. Various recent investigations based on long-term trends (1950-2010) show that wetter conditions have increased on those plains. This trend was accompanied by a significant agricultural expansion of agricultural areas (even on marginal climatic zones) and a substantial increase of agricultural yields (Viglizzo et al., 2011). Average crop productivity could increase until the middle of the 21th century, but inter-annual and decadal climate variability may trigger drought episodes, especially in sub-humid and semiarid areas. This area will consolidate as one of the most important region for grain production and feedstocks for biofuel production, mainly through sugarcane and soybean cultivation. On the other hand, due to sporadic heavy rain episodes, stream and river flows will probably increase in sub-basins of Del Plata River Basin causing severe flood in vast rural areas (e.g. the Salado River watershed in Argentina) and important cities like Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires. Flooding events may become more frequent because the inter-flooding periods are shortening, and urban coastal areas on the eastern coasts will be particularly affected. Beach erosion is expected to increase in southern Brazil. Sea level rise varied from 2 to 7 mm yr–1 between 1950 and 2008 in extensive coastal areas of South America, which is a

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reason for concern because of the dense population living by the coast. Likewise, there is an increased probability of seawater intrusion into the coastal freshwater aquifers, affecting both the water supply to coastal cities and the irrigation of peri-urban agricultural bests. A fully different scenario is expected in vast areas of Central Andes and Patagonia. There are perceptible and large-scale drying trend on vast areas of central and western Argentina (Andean mountains, Cuyo and Western Patagonia). There is growing evidence that Andean glaciers and ice fields in central and western areas of Argentina have been retreating since the second half of the 20th century in response to warming and drying conditions. Climatic records show that the warming process averages 4ºC, ranging from 2.0°C to 5.0°C, with a rainfall reduction up to 15% on vast Andean lands. As a result, the productivity of irrigated agricultural lands could be at risk in the short term, threatening food security and commercial activities. In addition, the increasing water scarcity due to glaciers retreating will affect the flow of Andean rivers and the level of dams, and will be cause of increasing conflict between up- and down-stream communities in the region. Hydropower production in Cuyo and Patagonia could be increasingly affected in the region.

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Adaptation to climate change The study of adaptation processes is relatively recent, and there is still a lack of sufficient literature assessing how to reduce the vulnerability of societies in South America. However, real cases with lessons of effective and poor adaptation to climate change and climate variability are being documented (Debels et al., 2009). Adaptation to climate change requires long-term policies at all scales, as well as actions applicable at small spatial and temporal scales. According to IPCC 5th Report (2014), adaptation can reduce the risk of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness. Many adaptation options can help address climate change, but no single option is sufficient by itself. At broader scales, effective adaptation will depend on policies and measures across multiple levels: international, regional, national and sub-national. But at the same time, policies and measures require effective institutions and governance, innovation and investments in infrastructure and environmentally sound technology. Furthermore, adaptations for agriculture and forestry can substantially be improved through trade reform and investment that open the market access to both small/middle-scale and large-scale production systems. Broad-scale adaptation is generally known as “planned adaptation”. Planned adaptation policies promoted by governments have been strengthened by the increasing participation of countries and regions in international networks. On the other hand, at smaller scales, the redesign of production systems and the incorporation of technology are key issues to face the climate-change risk. The adaptation at lower scale is generally known as “autonomous adaptation”. Some examples of autonomous adaptation are the following:

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1) The redesign of the production system comprises well-known risk-spreading strategies like crop diversification, crop rotation, forestry and livestock integration and integrated pest management into the farming plan. This last agronomic view can also be quite effective to reduce the risk of pest and disease outbreaks associated with climatic factors. 2) The design of the production system can be critically important in water-scarce areas that require water management. This includes strategies like the incorporation of irrigation devices, areas for rainfall-water harvesting, and strategies of land use/land cover that minimize water loss by evaporation. 3) In areas exposed to negative water excesses and flood impacts, the design of the production system can be quite helpful to spread risk. The integration of natural and artificial wetlands into the system can be a powerful mean to regulate the frequency and intensity of water flows. The incorporation of forest plots can also be helpful to regulate flows and remove water excesses by transpiration. 4) In terms of technology for water-scarce areas, the incorporation of well-known agronomic practices such as those of crop varieties tolerant to high-temperature and drought conditions, introduction of pest- and disease-resistant genotypes, reduced tillage and no till, fallow and cover-crop schemes, water-table management, and early-warning systems can be quite effective to smooth the climatic and environmental risk. A constraint to be overcome in the region is that responses to climate-driven disasters are still mainly reactive rather than preventive. However, there are sufficient planning and technological resources in the region to convert reactive into preventive strategies. Warming mitigation The IPCC 5th Report (2014) states that “without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high/very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible global impacts”…“Mitigation options are available in every major sector. Mitigation can be more cost-effective if using an integrated approach that combines measures to reduce energy use and the GHG intensity of end-use sectors, de-carbonized energy supply, reduce net emissions and enhance carbon sinks in land-based sectors”. IPCC indicates that “there are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to preindustrial levels... These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century... Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges … on different timescales”.

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Even if we agree on that reasoning line, a key question is quite pertinent. How much have South American countries contributed to current levels of warming at the global planet scale? A proper answer is necessary to define the limits of responsibility, commitment and future strategies in ABPU region. In order to find an answer, we need to put the regional figures in a global context. Firstly, it is necessary to have a clear idea about the participation of ABPU region in the total GHG global emissions. Secondly, it is necessary to get a comparison between ABPU region and major GHG emitting countries. As Figure 4 shows, there is a positive correlation between per capita income and per capita GHG emission. Latin America countries are generally located on the middle of income and emission ranges. But it can be appreciated that countries having high development and high per capita income also show higher GHG emission levels per capita. However, the absolute and relative gap between high- and low-emission countries is very notable. Table 1 shows GHG figures that help answer the above released question. Differences are enormous when we compare the emission levels of the ABPU countries with the major global emitters. When the comparison is extended to country groups, the difference between the four ABPU countries and the four high-emission countries extends to 15 times. It is quite clear that global emissions will only have significant effects if concrete mitigation actions are primarily implemented by the largest emitters. Then, international pressure on low-emission countries (like ABPU) to reduce emissions will not have any measurable effect on global warming mitigation.

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But what about the emission profile of those countries? The analysis of the composition of emissions (see Table 2) reveals that the weight of the rural sector is certainly more important in the ABPU region than in the other four high-emission countries. The largest share of methane (CH4) on total agricultural emissions in ABPU region indicates the high importance that ruminant population has with respect to other livestock species. The share of CH4 emission tends to be substantially lower in high-emission countries, where mono-gastric species (such as pigs and poultry) dominate over the ruminant ones like the cow and the sheep. However, this aspect deserves an additional reflection.

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Opportunities for ABPU region and global common sense World demographic trends indicate that food demand will increase over the coming decades. Important nations in Asia and Europe have increased their demand for food, and another group of nations (such as the ABPU countries) that are traditional food suppliers to the world market, faces the opportunity and the challenge of meeting such demand. However, GHG emissions from agriculture are cause of increasing concern, worldwide especially between well-informed people in developed countries. Global warming and climate change were recurrent arguments used for questioning current methods of food production in agricultural-based economies. Inevitably, traditional food suppliers like Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay are on suspicion under this view. A question raised by the most elementary common sense should be the following: in quantitative terms, how much ABPU agriculture contributes to the current levels of global GHG emissions? Figures in Table 3 shed light on this. Less than 3% of global GHG emissions can be attributed to ABPU agriculture, which certainly is a negligible figure. Then, the inevitable question is how valid are the arguments to put ABPU agriculture on suspicion because of their food production schemes?

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It is argued that emission levels in some South American countries could be dramatically reduced if ruminants (more specifically, bovines) are removed from production systems and replaced by other livestock species. But bovines are a basic component in the ABPU agricultural economies because of the quality and competitiveness of their meat in sophisticated world market. Given that this was the result of a long process of technological improvement, it is unlikely that this competitive advantage can graciously be set aside. Moreover, bovine production in South America will persist as long as people in high-income countries demand its high-quality beef. On the other hand, it must be accepted that, in biological terms, the high CH4 emission by ruminants is the result of their evolutionary advantage to digest fiber-rich forages, not usable by other species. Forages of this type are abundant in South America, and there is no reason to set aside such valuable resource. This natural condition cannot be changed, at least in the short term. Given that ruminants have co-evolved and share lands with humans, it is likely that the net balance of CH4 in the atmosphere should not have suffered major change over the last millennia. Therefore, loading ruminants with the burden of GHG emissions sound unjust when we realize that well-known non-agricultural sectors (energy, transportation, buildings) have dramatically altered the atmosphere composition over the last three centuries. Another critical argument generally used to question some South American countries is focused on current deforestation rates and the conversion of natural into agricultural lands. This argument was certainly valid some decades ago, but not now when deforestation rates persistently decreased in the region due to effective national policies (Magrin et al., 2014). On the other hand, if declining deforestation deals with a remarkable increase in agricultural productivity, the

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carbon footprint in the ABPU countries has been declining at noticeable rates, especially in countries like Brazil and Paraguay (Viglizzo, 2014). Beyond arguments against agriculture in the region as a source of GHG, common sense indicates that the aspects mentioned above should seriously be taken into account each time agricultural countries are unjustly stigmatized by their “theoretical” contribution to the global-warming process. References Davidson EA, de Araújo AC, Artaxo P, Balch JK et al. (2012). The Amazon basin in transition. Review. Nature 481: 321-328. Debels, P., C. Szlafsztein, P. Aldunce, C. Neri, Y. Carvajal, M. Quintero-Angel, A. Celis, A. Bezanilla, and D. Martínez, 2009: IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability. Natural Hazards, 50(2), 211-233. EPA (2012). documents on GHG emissions from USA agriculture. USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/agriculture.html. García-Carreras L, Parker DJ (2011). How does tropical deforestation affect rainfall? Gephysical Research Letters 38: LI9802, doi: 10.1029/2o11GL049099. IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32. Magrin, G.O., J.A. Marengo, J.-P. Boulanger, M.S. Buckeridge, E. Castellanos, G. Poveda, F.R. Scarano, and S. Vicuña (2014). Central and South America. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1499-1566. OFDA/CRED (2013). International Disaster Database. http://www.emdat.be/database Silvério DV, Brando PM, Balch JK, Putz FE, Nepstad DC, Oliveira-Santos C, Bustamante MMC (2013). Testing the Amazon savannization hypothesis: fire

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effects on invation of a neotropical forest by native cerrado and exotic pastures. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B368: 2012047. USDA (2010). Documents on GHG emissions from USA agriculture. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/140711/eb15_1_.pdf. Viglizzo, E.F., Frank, F.C., Carreño, L.V., Jobbágy, E.G., Pereyra, H., Clatt, J., Pincén, D., Ricard, F.M. (2011). Ecological and environmental footprint of 50 years of agricultural expansion in Argentina. Global Change Biology 17: 959–973. Viglizzo, E.F. (2014). Carbon footprint and sustainable intensification in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. GPS (Group of Producing Countries from the Southern Cone) documents. Buenos Aires, 20 pp. www.grupogpps.org World Bank (2014). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator