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Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality
Elnara Mehdiyeva Anaa SaleemAndrea Cecchi
Environmental and Natural Resources Policy- Case study
AGENDA
• The objectives of the case• Introduction• The main motivations for travelling• The ways how weather is characterised by different type
of leisure• Tourism Seasonality• The Tourism Climatic Index• Conceptual framework of tourism climate distributions• Methods & Results• Conclusion• Questions
THE OBJECTIVES OF THE CASE
1
• To assess the potential implications of projected climate change on international & regional tourism flows throughout the 21 c.
2
• To assess the implications of projected climate change on tourism seasonality in the summer European market
INTRODUCTION
• Climate change as a significant social& environmental issue
• The rise of temperature since 1861 as the proves of Global Climate change
• The rise of global sea level • Possible changes in the future
THE MAIN MOTIVATIONS FOR TRAVELLING
• The impact of psychological needs • The ‘’push’’ & ‘’pull’’ factors• A strong relationship between the weather
and tendency to travel
THE WAYS HOW WEATHER IS CHARACTERISED BY DIFFERENT TYPE OF LEISURE
• The IISD’s point of view distinction between tourism and recreation
• Smith’s discrimination of climate- dependent & weather-sensitive tourism
Climate change Time
Changes in climatic
seasonality
TOURISM AND SEASONALITY• The seasonality caused by:
Natural factorsExamples:
TemperaturePerception
Depth of Snow
Institutional factors Examples:
Timing of religious (i.e. Christmas)
Timing of school Annual festival
THE CORE OF SEASONALITY Negative
to the profits, the attraction of investment capital, and the
employment situation.
Positiveto the opportunities for ecological
and community recovery which provided during the offseason.
THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)
• TCI allows quantitative evaluation of the world’s climate for the purpose of general tourism activity.
• TCI designed to indicate the level of climatic comfort for tourism activity but NOT the tourism infrastructures (e.g. transportation).
THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)• THE TCI IS BASED ON: 5 COMPONENTS OF TOURISM
CLIMATIC INDEX
TCI= 4CID +CIA+2R+2S+W• Maximum daily temperature (ºC) • Minimum daily relative humidity (%)
1- Daytime comfort index
• Mean daily temperature (ºC)• Mean daily relative humidity (%)2- Daily comfort index
• Precipitation (mm)3- Precipitation
• Daily duration of sunshine (hours)4- Sunshine
• Average Wind speed (m/s or km/h)5- Wind speed
THE TOURISM CLIMATIC INDEX (TCI)• TCI index has rating numbers of the comfort
level of tourism activities, and thus, a region with a high TCI may experience low levels of tourism arrivals, and on the other hand, a region with a low TCI may experience high levels of tourism arrivals, because a multitude of other factors besides climatic conditions influence tourism activity.
Value of index 90-100 Ideal
comfort of Tourism Activity
Value of index 50-59
Acceptable comfort of
Tourism Activity
Value of index 10-19
extremely unfavorable comfort of
Tourism Activity
Value of index below 9
Impossible comfort of
Tourism Activity
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF TOURISM CLIMATE DISTRIBUTIONS
• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions or general tourism activity occur in the dry season; applies, e.g., to the monsoon regions of Asia
• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions for general tourism activity occur in the spring and autumn (shoulder) months
• TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions for peak general tourism activity occur in the (northern) winter months
• TCI includes the most favorable climate conditions for general occur in the (northern) summer months
Summer Peak
Winter peak
Dry season peak
Bimodal
shoulder peaks
METHODS
TCI calculated for a series of current and future time spans
We consider two different scenarios:• A1: rapid and successful economic
development; high rates of innovation and investments
• B1: environmentally and socially conscious future, globally approach to sustainable development
RESULTS
We focus the results on:
Northern hemispheric summer
Number of locations included in “good months”
Changes will be based on the two climate change scenarios
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC SUMMER
• Strong correlation between TCI index and currently popular summer destinations
• FUTURE A1: pronounced poleward movement in tourism comfort
ideal conditions: northern Europe and Canada• FUTURE B1: less dramatic poleward shift• ideal conditions: northern France, southern
parts of UK and southern Scandinavia
TCI VALUES FOR SUMMER 2080S, A1
NUMBER OF GOOD MONTHS (TCI > 70)
VALUES, A1
GOOD MONTHS ( TCI > 70)NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
CURRENTLY>10 months (Egypt, Morocco, Mexico, and Perù)6/7 months (Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey …)2/3 months (Denmark, Sweden, Finland …)
FUTURE (by 2080s)A1 No more high comfort placesB1 Just a handful of comfortable condition areas
GOOD MONTHS ( TCI > 70) SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE:
Regions of high confort shifting southwards
• i.e. From the coast of Peru to that of Chile
• i.e From the north of Australia to the south side
Trends repeated across both A1 and B1 scenarios
IMPLICATIONS: European tourism is moving northwardsSouth of Europe from 7 to 4 “good months”North of Europe will increase its level of comfort
CONCLUSION
• Climate is a principal resource for tourism & a principal driver of global seasonality in tourism demand
• Climate affects a wide range of the environmental resources that are critical attractions for tourism, such as snow conditions, wildlife productivity and biodiversity
• The countries that experience better summer conditions would face large increases in visitation without being able to shift some additional demand to the shoulder seasons
• Climate change bring some relief to extreme cases of seasonality, but institutions & tourists should be sensitive
• Is TCI a proper index to assess to most comfort places? Is the empirical view agreed with the results of index?
• Do you think that the climate changes will negatively influence on willingness to travel to habitual destinations?
Resources: • Implication of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality
(Bas Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner)
Journal of Travel Research 2007 45:285
• Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285
• B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D.. (2007, January 1). TCI Values. Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Retrieved December 5, 2012, from Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285 http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210-journal.pdf