Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine

Species

Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback

24 October 2006

McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre

• Gail Chmura

Huntsman Marine Science Centre• Lou Van Guelpen• Gerhard Pohle

Workshop schedule

1:00 – welcome, overview

1:10 – presentation of report results• Sea surface temperature changes NW Atlantic – Chmura• Impacts on commercial marine species – Van Guelpen & Pohle

2: 10 – interpretation of results – Dr. Fred Page, DFO St. Andrews

3:00 – break (catered)

3:20 – open forum - audience feedback

4:30 – closing remarks

Project objectives

• changes in distribution of commercially important species greenhouse warming increase in average global air temperature of 4Co by ~2090

• vulnerability to climate change/barriers to their adaptation

• fishing & aquaculture industries and resource managers - initial information

enable consideration of economic consequences and adaptations to upcoming changes

identify new opportunities

Organization

Part A:Sea Surface Temperatures – Present and Future

Part B:1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions

2. Sensitivity analysis

3. Synthesis

4. Commercial impacts

1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions

Methods

• Species

33 marine species of economic importance to Atlantic Canada

capture fishery, aquaculture, bio-invader, or trophically basal prey

northern or southern limit in Canadian Atlantic waters

thermal sensitivities at each life stage

Map legendCLIMATE FORCING

SCENARIOS :

• A2 = high pop. growth, less environmental concern

• B2 = low pop. growth, more

environmental concern

MODELS = 4

COLOURS:

• red = loss of thermal habitat

• green = increase

• blue = no change

• cross hatching = present distribution

Results

Every species – distribution will change

Species groups:

1. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, NS, NF, Lab.

2. LESSER HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, southern NS

3. LEAST HABITAT LOSS– in southern part of species range (~Cape Cod southward)

4. HABITAT GAIN– in GSL, NF, Lab.

Species examined with GREATEST HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

serrated wrack capelin

Atlantic salmon

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSS

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod to tail

of Grand Bank, GSLno northward gain (study

does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with LESSER HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

knotted wrack Calanus finmarchicus American plaice

kelp (3 species) northern shrimp

green sea urchin

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod

southward; perhaps GSL, Labrador

no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with LEAST HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

rockweed black clam Atlantic wolffish

Atlantic rock crab Atlantic menhaden

eastern oyster Atlantic herring

American lobster Atlantic cod

Atlantic long-fin squid Atlantic halibut

quahog haddock

soft-shelled clam silver hake

blue mussel

Atlantic deep-sea scallop

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic cod

(Gadus morhua)

LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod

(Gadus morhua)

• Distribution: loss of southern habitat

(southern New England southward); perhaps Labrador

no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with HABITAT GAIN:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

blue crab

green crab

Japanese shore crab

common periwinkle

HABITAT GAINJapanese shore crab

(Hemigrapsus sanguineus)

HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus)

• Special status: invasive species (Pacific); 1988 rapid dispersal, high densities

• Distribution: loss of southern habitat

(Chesapeake to Delaware Bay or

Long Island Sound large northward gain throughout

Canadian Atlantic should extend into Canada w/o

climate change

2. Sensitivity Analysis

Objective• to examine relative sensitivity (vulnerability) of each species to increasing SSTs

Methods

• literature on sensitivity to temperature: incomplete variable - geographic region, season, population, and source (i.e.,

experimental versus observational)

• considered a function of three parameters (in order of importance): mobility during each life history stage absolute temperature range experienced by a species =“stenothermalness” north/south distribution

• each scored• scores added• higher value = less sensitivity

Plants mostsensitive

Fishesgenerally leastsensitive

Sensitivefishes

Leastsensitiveinvertebrates

SensitivityResults

Lesssensitive invert.

3. Synthesis of analyses

Conclusion: degree of impact on distribution ~ stenothermal & N/S distribution

4. Commercial impacts

• project = 33 species• to date - 10 fishes, 5 invertebrates, 0 plants examined • examples following – represent species examined (mostly)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSS

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

• negative impact - recreational fishery:

mortalitymore frequent closures of

rivers due to warm temps.

• may override progress of recovery and restoration programs

• positive impact - aquaculture longer growing season, faster

growth rate, lower winter mortality

expansion to other waters

b

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSCapelin

(Mallotus villosus)

GREATEST HABITATLOSS

Capelin (Mallotus villosus)

• negative impact – commercial fishery in most regions:

southern Gulf of MaineScotian ShelfGrand BankGulf of St. Lawrenceperhaps Labrador

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp(Pandalus borealis)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

southern GoM perhaps in southern GSL perhaps Labrador

LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice

(Hippoglossoides platessoides)

LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice

(Hippoglossoides platessoides)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

southern GoM perhaps GSL perhaps Labrador

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop

(Placopecten magellanicus)

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop

(Placopecten magellanicus)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

approx. NJ southward perhaps Labrador

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring

(Clupea harengus)

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring

(Clupea harengus)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

approx. NJ or Cape Hatteras southward

perhaps Labrador

HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)

HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

minimal south of Cape Cod southern GoM may become

suboptimal perhaps GSL

• positive impact – potential new fishing

Labrador

HABITAT GAINBlue crab

(Callinectes sapidus)

• fishing – not yet examined• Important in US (comm. & recr.)• positive impact – potential new

fishing in Canada

Project funding:

Natural Resources Canada

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

Project A515

Interpretation of Results

Dr. Fred PageSection Head

Ocean Sciences DivisionOcean SciencesDFO

St. Andrews Biological Station