Climate Change and the Red Meat Industry in Wales

Dr. Martin J. Hodson

Hybu Cig Cymru- Meat Promotion Wales annual conference at Venue Cymru, Llandudno (12th November 2009)

The Threats

1) Climatic Impacts2) Increasing Vegetarianism3) Government Legislation

Climatic Impacts

The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere

17Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

CO2 is the major contributor to global warmingCurrent emissions, effect over next 100 years

Methane24%

Carbondioxide

63%Nitrous

oxide 10%

Others3%

UK climate projections (UKCP09)

Medium emissions, middle of the century, mid-range of predictions

Medium emissions scenario for Wales by the 2080s

• The central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.8ºC.

• ...... in summer mean temperature is 3.5ºC.• ...... in winter mean precipitation is 19%.• ...... in summer mean precipitation is –20%.• ...... for sea level rise in Cardiff by 2080 is 36.2 cm.

UK climate projections (UKCP09)

Climate change and bluetongue in Europe

• Bluetongue, a disease of ruminants, was restricted to Africa, occasionally getting into the fringes of Europe.

• However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across Europe and into the UK by 2007.

• This spread has been linked to warmer weather allowing increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of the midge Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector.

• Other vector-borne pathogens (e.g. Rift Valley Fever) might spread in a similar way in the future.

Increasing Vegetarianism

Climate chief Lord Stern: give up meat to save the planet

• Lord Stern of Brentford said: “Meat is a wasteful use of water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian diet is better.”

• “I am 61 now and attitudes towards drinking and driving have changed radically since I was a student. People change their notion of what is responsible. They will increasingly ask about the carbon content of their food.”

The Times October 27, 2009

Two methods of investigation

1) Emissions (methane)2) Power (Energy use)

Emissions from

Agriculture

“UN figures suggest that meat production is responsible for about 18 per cent of global carbon emissions, including the destruction of forest land for cattle ranching and the production of animal feeds such as soy.”

Anthropogenic Methane Production

Methane in Tg(CH4)/yr)

45

98

7539

18

96 LandfillsRuminantsRiceBiomass burningOtherEnergy

Source IPCC 2001

Methane and Cattle

• Enteric fermentation = 86 million tonnes Methane per year

• Animal manure = 18 million tonnes Methane per year

Ruminant Impact• Methane is responsible for 24% of

anthropogenic global warming.• Of that ruminants are responsible for 26.4%

of methane.• Worldwide ruminants are directly

responsible for 6.3% of global warming.• In the UK agriculture generates around 38%

of UK methane emissions, around 2.9% of the total global warming potential from all UK emissions.

Global Warming Potential of a Rangeof Agricultural and Horticultural Products

Product GWP Kg of CO2e per kg(over a 100yr period)per tonne of product

Bread wheat 520Oilseed rape 1,200Potatoes 460Tomatoes 7,000Beef 13,000Pig meat 6,500Poultry meat 3,100Sheep meat 19,000

Source: DEFRA

Power• David MacKay (2009) Sustainable Energy

— without the hot air.• David MacKay was appointed to be Chief

Scientific Advisor of the Department of Energy and Climate Change in September 2009 to take up the post on 1 October 2009.

• In his book he uses kWh/d per person as the units of Power.

Healthy Human Diet• Vegan= 3.0 kWh/day• Milk/Cheese= 1.5 kWh/day• Eggs= 1.0 kWh/day• Vegetarian= 5.5 kWh/day• Meat= 8.0 kWh/day• Typical meat eating consumer = 12.0 kWh/day• Fertilizers= 2.0 kWh/day• Farm vehicles, machinery, heating (especially

greenhouses), lighting, ventilation, and refrigeration= 0.9 kWh/day

• TOTAL = 15.0 kWh/day MacKay (2009)

Welsh sheep and MacKay

• “Do these calculations give an argument in favour of vegetarianism, on the grounds of lower energy consumption?

• It depends on where the animals feed.• Take the steep hills and mountains of Wales, for example. • Could the land be used for anything other than grazing? • Either these rocky pasturelands are used to sustain sheep,

or they are not used to help feed humans. • You can think of these natural green slopes as

maintenance-free biofuel plantations, and the sheep as automated self-replicating biofuel harvesting machines.”

MacKay (2009)

MacKay (2009)4%

Government Legislation

1) Reduce the number of animals2) Reduce emissions from each animal3) Manure4) RMP/5142 Analysis of Policy Instruments

for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Land Management (ADAS, May 2009)

Mitigation

• Improved diet and genetics• Increased digestibility of foodstuff• Advanced technologies in development:

stimulation of certain bacteria to decrease hydrogen production; decrease certain protozoa; vaccination to reduce methanogens

• Manure- anaerobic digestion- biogas

Conclusion• Climate Change is likely to have major effects on the Welsh

meat industry this century.• Agriculture (and meat production) is one of the major, but

not the only or the largest, contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

• There are a number of possible mitigation measures.• The industry faces climatic, scientific, political and publicity

issues.