Supporting LDCs to advance their National Adaptation Plans Africa Regional Training Workshop (Anglophone)

UN Conference Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 14-17 April 2014

Julia Wolf Natural Resources Officer (Climate Change), FAO

Session 3: Element A: Lay the groundwork for the NAP process and address gaps

Connecting Element A with principles, approaches, methods and tools

Climate impact and vulnerability assessment from an

agriculture sector perspective UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Element A: Lay the groundwork for the NAP process and address gaps

Approaches to Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate

Change and Adaptation Options

Link: NAPS guidelines Element A, Step A 2 and A 3

What for?

1) Creating an evidence base to inform planning:

o assessment of key changes in climate

o impacts on different (sub-) sectors

o type and location of the vulnerability of livelihoods

2) Assessment of different adaptation options’ effectiveness to identify best options

Supporting LDCs to advance their National Adaptation Plans Africa Regional Training Workshop (Anglophone)

Session 3: Element A: Lay the groundwork and address gaps

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Importance of agriculture sector in NAPs .. There are major challenges for the agriculture sectors

which need to be addressed in the NAPs process:

• Need for: more food, in quantity, quality and diversity, everywhere for everyone

(availability, accessibility, utilization, stability, sustainability)

• Adapt to Climate Change (sustain productivity, food security)

• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change

– Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions

– Needs to be part of the solution ...

Climate change impacts on the sector: short and medium long run

Short run: Increased variability, Increased frequency,

and intensity of shocks.

Medium- Long run: major changes in

temperature &

rainfall patterns

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Change in African growing periods in

a +2 - 4 ºC world

5

Productivity trends by 2050

Source: IPCC (2007)

Categorizing methodologies and methods under two

vulnerability frameworks

AMICAF Framework: Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

(Step1)

Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

at household level (Step2)

Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change

(Step3)

Institutional Analysis and Awareness Raising (Step4)

Global Guideline for Implementation in other

countries (Global delivery)

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Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over weather stations networks (AR4 and AR5 data available)

Crop yield projections under climate scenarios

(WABAL and AQUACROP)

Simulation of the country’s hydrology

and estimation of water resources

Economic impact and analysis of policy

response at national level

MOSAICC Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of

Climate Change

Menu containing containing the different functions/tools of MOSAICC including

the built-in data interpolation tools (e.g. Kriging, AURELHY)

Model:

Direct impact of climate shocks to farm productivity (and caloric intake?) and then to food insecurity

Inputs:

Household survey data

Climate/Weather data at community-district-regional level

Outputs:

Channels of transmission of shocks to food insecurity are identified

Profile of vulnerable population groups (e.g. chronically vs. temporarily food insecure)

Exploring the relative efficiency of different policy tools in reducing vulnerability

Step 2 Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

Current FIVIMS Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System

in the Philippines

Step 2 built upon past work on analysis and mapping of food insecurity by incorporating climate change-related factors.

Current FIVIMS

Climate Change Impacts

AMICAF

Step 3 Livelihood Adaptation to Climate

Change

• Community–based adaptation using current vulnerabilities (and later making best use of information from Steps 1 and 2)

• Identification, validation, field-testing, and evaluation of good adaptation practices at the local context through participatory processes and capacity development under the framework of Farmer Field Schools

• In the Philippines, field-testing sites are Camarines Sur, Luzon Island and Surigao del Norte, Mindanao Island with drought, flooding and saline intrusion --

Farmer Field Schools- looking at climate adaptation options

Typhoon tracking by FFS participants

Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day

Community hazard assessment

Step 4: Institutional analysis and awareness raising

• Institutional analysis

• Knowledge management, communication and capacity development

• Interactive fora

• Institutional mechanism and produce guidance materials

• Policy analysis

Element A: Lay the groundwork for the NAP process and address gaps

Challenges ahead

• How to build on existing and make lessons learned from the project/programme level relevant for national planning across sectors?

• How to bring together/Map vulnerability assessments from various sectors/ source?

• What’s the best combination of tools to support countries in this matter?

• Countries views on agriculture sectors entry points for NAPS planning

• Identification of capacity and institutional capacity building needs and finance gaps of countries to move ahead with an integrated approach for NAPs process.

Supporting LDCs to advance their National Adaptation Plans Africa Regional Training Workshop (Anglophone)

Session 3: Element A: Lay the groundwork and address gaps