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Climate change adaptation initiatives in Kerala (India) under the humid tropics
G. S. L. H. V. Prasada Rao Associate Director of Research
Centre for Climate Change ResearchKerala Agricultural University
Thrissur- [email protected]
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
Background
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change Adaptation
Awareness
Integrated Agromet Advisory Services based on weather forewarning
Human Resources Development
Future directions
Temperature increase by 2100 AD will be around 3°C
Wheat and rice production are likely to decline
The adverse impact of drought is more significant on food grainswhen compared to that of floods
Area under agriculture is declining
Crop productivity is stagnated sincelast one decade
Attributed to frequent occurrences of weather extremes
Climate change/variability impacts onAgriculture in India
50
75100
125
150
175200225
250
1950
-51
54-5
5
58-5
9
62-6
3
66-6
7
70-7
1
74-7
5
78-7
9
82-8
3
86-8
7
90-9
1
94-9
5
98-9
9
2002
-03
2006
-07
Year
Food
grai
ns p
rodu
ctio
n(m
illio
n to
nnes
)
Droughts(1965-66-67)
Drought(1979-80)
Droughts(1972-73-74-75)
Drought(1987-88)
Drought(2002-03)
Drought 2004-05
Impact of droughts on Indian food grains production from 1950-51 to 2008-’09
National action plan on climate change in India
Eight missions, for sustainable development.1. Solar energy2. Enhanced energy efficiency3. Sustainable habitat4. Conserving water5. Sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem6. Creating a “Green India”7. Sustainable agriculture, and 8. Establishing a strategic knowledge platform for
climate change
The Green India mission will enhance ecosystem services including carbon sinks to be called Green India
Sustainable agriculture mission intends making agriculture more resilient to climate change by identifying and developing new varieties of crops.
Price rise – Food crisis – Food security
Kerala is popularly known as “Gateway of monsoon”
Latitude: 8°15’N to 12°50’NLongitude: 74°50’E to 77°30’EMSL: Below MSL to 1500mRivers: 44, 41flows from east to west Forest cover: 24%Average annual rainfall: 3000 mmMean annual temp. : 20-27°C
Thrissur CentreThrissur Centre
Overview of biophysical resources over Kerala
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Monthly normal rainfall over Kerala (1871Monthly normal rainfall over Kerala (1871--2008)2008)
Altitudinal sequence of crops in Kerala
Decline in forest area
Forest fires
Declining in wetlands
Indiscriminate sand mining
Indiscriminate land filling
Groundwater depletion
Floods and droughts
Landslides
Rainfall decline
Temperature rise
Rice, cashew, cocoa, coffee, tea, cardamom and black pepper are under threat
Climate related issues over Kerala and impacts on crops
0.040.04Tea
51.3155.24Index in Food grains
105.24103.69Index in Non –food grains
0.080.08Coffee
0.040.04Cardamom
0.900.90Coconut
0.240.22Black pepper
0.490.48Rubber
0.080.09Cashew
0.280.29Rice
2005-062003-04
Area in million haCrops
Shift in major crops over Kerala
(1870-2009)
8-Jun
10-May
15-May
20-May
25-May
30-May
4-Jun
9-Jun
14-Jun
19-Jun
1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Year
Dat
e of
ons
etOnset of Indian summer monsoon from 1870 to 2009
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Normal: 2833 mm
Annual rainfall (mm) over Kerala from 1871 to 2008
88.283.6
69.0
53.7
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
1901-30 1931-60 1961-90 1991-2008
Im (%
)
B1
B2
B3
B4
Decadal shifts in climate over Kerala
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Se
p
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2003-04 1982-83
Early drought-2003-04
Late drought-1982-83
Water deficit from September to May over Kerala during 1982-83 and 2003-04
mm
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
1/2/2004 9/2/2004 17/02/04 25/02/04 4/3/2004 12/3/2004 20/03/04 28/03/04
Max
. tem
p(°C
)
Mean maximum temperature
2004
March of maximum temperature (°C) at Vellanikkara duringFebruary and March 2004
Climate projections at selected stations over Kerala
Warming with decline in rainfall
Ambalavayal (coffee, tea and
black pepper)
Warm days with cool nights and increase in rainfall except during southwest monsoon. Increase in temperature range is also expected.
Pampadumpara(cardamom, tea and black pepper)
Cool days with warm nights (except in summer) and decline in rainfall. Decline in temperature range is also expected.
Vellanikkara
Cooling with decline in rainfall
Pilicode
ProjectionsLocations
1.1. Kasaragod2. Kannur3. Wayanad4. Kozhikode5. Malappuram6. Palakkad7. Thrissur8. Earnakulam9. Idukki10. Kottayam11. Alappuzha12. Pathanamthitta13. Kollam14. Thiruvanathapuram
KERALAKERALA
y = 49.588x + 2379.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1949
-50
53-5
4
57-5
8
61-6
2
65-6
6
69-7
0
73-7
4
77-7
8
81-8
2
85-8
6
89-9
0
93-9
4
97-9
8
2001
-02
2005
-06
Prod
uctio
n (m
illio
n nu
ts)
Coconut production over Kerala from 1949-50 to 2007-2008
Source:CPCRI,ICAR,Kasaragod
Impact of climate change on coconut over India
Awareness
Deforestation reduction
Conservation and protection of Wetlands
Judicious use of natural resources
Demarcation of landslide zonation
Integrated Agromet Advisory Service based on Weather Forewarning
Protected cultivation (Olericulture and floriculture)
Biotic and abiotic stress tolerant varieties (Biotechnology tools)
The green economy and development
Human resources development
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation(Action Plan)
Integrated Agromet Advisory Service – A Multi – institutional programme
India Meteorological Department (IMD)Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)Kerala State Planning BoardCochin University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of AgricultureKerala Agricultural University (Nodal Agency)
Integrated Agromet Advisory Service
Weather forewarning Dissemination
Short RangeMedium Range
Long Range
Seasonal/Climate forecast
Agroclimatic Analysis
Direct delivery
Print media
e media
Village Resource Centers
(Space tools)
Climate variability/ change – projections
Crop growth stimulation models
Future crop projections
SPACE & GIS Tools
Awareness programmes on climate change adaptation
Mathrubhoomi dated 21.3.2008
Mathrubhoomi dated 22.3.2008
New Indian Express dated 21.3.2008
New Indian Express dated 21.3.2008
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.
Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.
Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).
Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.
Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).
Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.
Use of Biotechnology tools in breeding programs to develop improved cultivars adapted to climate change.
Future Directions
Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.
Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.
Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).
Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.
Use of Biotechnology tools in breeding programs to develop improved cultivars adapted to climate change.
Strengthening climate studies teaching and research at KAU through international collaboration.
