Climate and Its Impact on Global Crop Production

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UTERATURE CITEDBarai, V. N. 1997. Development of rainfalll

intensity-frequency-duration relationshipfor Rahuri and Solapur. M. Tech. thesissubmitted to the M. P. K. V., Rahuri.

Mockus, V. 1960. Selecting a floodfrequency method. Trans. ASAE 3: 48-51,54.

Nemec, J. 1973. Engineering Hydrology.Tata-McGraw Hill Pub. Co. Ltd. NewDelhi.

Ogrosky, H. O. and Mockus. 1957. NationalEngineering Handbook. Sec. 4.Hydrology Supp. A. 18-11 to 14. Soil

Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities

Cons. Serv., U. S. D. A.Papamichail, D. M. and Z.G. Papaza firiou.

1992. Multiple single output linearfunctional models for river flow routing.J. Hydrol 133 : 365-377.Ram Babu, B. L., K. G. Tejwani, M. C.

Agrawal and L. S. Bhushan. 1979.Rainfall intensity - duration - returnperiod equations and nomographs ofIndia. Bull. No.3. Central Soil andWater Cons. Res. and Training Insti.,Dehradun :1-70.

Ram Babu B. L., K. G. Tejwani, M. C.Agrawal and L. S. Bhushan. 1980.Rainfall intensity-duration-return period

J. Maharashtra agric. Univ., 32 (1) : 133-139 (2007)

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equations and nomographs of India.Statistical Climatology. Developments inAtmospheric Science 13. ElsevierScientific Pub!. Co., Amsterdam. pp.359-374.

Ram Babu, B. L. Dhyani, R. Tondon and N.Kumar. 2001. Rainfall intensity-duration-return period equations andnomographs of Madhya Pradesh. IndianJ. Soil Cons. 29(3) : 200-205.

Senapati, P. c., S. K. Shakya and J. P.Nema. 1976. Nomograph of intensity,duration and recurrence interval ofrainfall at Bombay (Colaba). Irrig. PowerJ. 33(4) : 525-528.

Climate and its Impact on Global Crop ProductionP. S. Sehra1

Department of Agronomy and Agrometeorology,Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana -141 004 (India)(Received: 19-11-2005)

ABSTRACTRecent changes such as the increase in global temperature are largely attributable to human

activities linked to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,nitrous oxide, methane, etc., by burning of fossil fuels, crop residues, industrial and transportpollution, firecrackers pollution and pollution due to wars. Global mean surface temperaturescould thus rise by, 1.4 to 5.8C from 1990 to 2100. Depletion of stratospheric ozone layer bythe emission of chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFCs) from supersonic aircrafts, use of sprays, etc., hascaused an ozone hole over Antarctica leading to health hazards. Our changing climate plays akey role in global crop production. Consequently in 2002, wheat production increased in some

chosen to highlight the need toprotect climate as a resource for thewell being of present and futuregenerations, besides its impact onglobal crop production.Climate change: Changes inclimate are known to have occured

in the past due to natural causes.


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to the growth in the concentrationof greenhouse gases in theatmosphere. Carbon dioxide, amajor greenhouse gas, has grownfrom about 280 parts per million byvolume (ppmv) in 1750 to 380ppmv at the end of 2001, anincrease of over 32 per cent. Overthe same period, atmosphericconcentrations of methane andnitrous oxide increased by 15 and17 per cent respectively.

As a result of the warming, theglobal mean sea-level has risen bybetween 10 and 20 cm. The risehas been estimated to be as much as10 times the averag!increase in thelast 3000 years. Over the past 50years, the extent of sea ice in thenorthern hemisphere has decreasedby about 10 to 15 per cent. The

'. durationof annuallakeand, river icewas shortened by about two weeksover the last century. There hasbeen a 40 per cent decline in Arcticsea ice thickness in late summer toearly autumn in the past 45 to 50years and a widespread retreat ofmountain glaciers in non-polarregions was observed in the last

Sehra P.S.

economy nearly 100 billion USDollars. Statistics compiled frominsurance companies for the period1950 to 1999 show that the majornatural catastrophes which aremainly weather and climate relatedcaused estimated economic losses ofabout 960 billion US Dollars asgiven in Table 1 . Most of the losseswere recorded in the recent decades(Cornford, 2003).

Perhaps the most strikingevidence of the. effects of globalwarming are the changes in theflora and fauna. In the southernocean, vegetation is thrivingon themost southerly islands and isexpanding. on the AntarcticPeniosula.

In 1979, WMO convened thefirst World Climate Conferenceleading to the establishment of theWorld Climate Programme (WCP)and its component parts. In 1988,in the lightof the growing concernabout the impactof human activitieson climate and the potential impact

of the climate change on thenational economies, especially onthose of the developing countries,WMO, in collaboration with theUnited Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP) established theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC). The Panel's (IPCC)tasks include assessment of scientificinformation on climate change andits environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as theformulation of appropriate responsestrategies.

Since itsestablishment,the IPCChas issuedthree assessment reports.The first assessment report of theIPCC issued in 1990 led to thecommencement by WMO andUNEP of negotiations for afamework convention on climatechange which was signed in Rioduring the United NationsConference on Environment andDevelopment (UNCED) in 1992.The second assessment reportissued in 1995 contributed to thenegotiations of the Kyoto Protocol

Table 1. Fatalities and economic losses in 15 major weather events in 2002.


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to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). It is the IPCC's thirdassessment report issued inSeptember 2001 from which theIPCC concluded that there is newand stronger evidence that most ofthe warming observedover the last50 years is attributable to humanactivities.Such conclusions as wellas future climate projections arebased on the output of completeatmosphere-ocean generalcirculationmodels and on scenariosof energy use and greenhouse gasemission projections. While thereare many uncertainties in futureprojections, the confipence in theability of the. climate models toprovide useful estimates hasimproved significantly.WMO/WMD theme for2003: "Our future climate" :

The third IPCCAssessment Reportindicates that the global meansurface temperature would rise by1.4 to 5.8C over the period 1990to 2100. This projected rate ofwarming is much higher than theobserved change during the 20th


may become more prevalent.Current projections show littlechange or a slight increase in theamplitude of EI-Ninoevents over thenext 100 years. But with highertemperatures, the extreme of floodsand drought generally associatedwith El-Nino events would be moresevere. It is also likely that therewould be greater Asian monsoonprecipitation variability.

Northern hemisphere snowcover and sea-ice extent areprojected to diminish further andglaciers and ice caps willcontinue toretreat. Climate change will alsoaffect human health. throughmultiple pathways, including directeffects and indirect effects thatoperate through changes in therange of disease vectors (e.g.mosquitoes), water borne pathogensand water and air quality, etc.

While these projections are forthe next 100 years, a greaterconcern is that human inducedclimate change will persist for manycenturies as some greenhouse gases(e.g. carbon dioxide) are long-lived.Human activities leading to climate

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temperature record since 1861. Thewarmest year remains 1998 whensurface temperatures averaged0.55C above the same 30-year.mean. The five warmest years inthis period of record now are indecreasing order: 1998, 2002,2001, 1995 and 1997. Averageannual temperature anomalies forthe globe are shown in Fig. 1 withtemperature anomalies from0.36C to 0.76C, approximately(Horton et 01. 2003). Abnormallyhigh temperatures were observedduringApril 2002 across India anda prolonged heatwave over itsnorthern regions from mid-Apriluntil the third week of May causedmore than 1000 fatalitieswith themaximum temperatures reachingaround 49C.Drought conditions: The

seasonal rainfallduring,the summersouthwest monsoon from June toSeptember in India as a wholewas19 per cent belownormal qualifying2002 as the first all-Indiadroughtsince 1987. RainfalldeficitsduringJuly were most noteworthy at ahistoricallow of 49 per cent below


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below median rainfall.Hurricanes, typhoons and

tropical cyclones: During theAtlantic hurricane season (June-November) in 2002. 12 namedtropical storms were observed,somewhat higher than the averageof 10. September 2002 was themost active tropical storm month onrecord in the North Atlantic Basin.In the western North Pacific. 26named storms were observed nearthe 1971-2000 average of 26.7.Typhoon Rusa made landfall on theKorean Peninsula at the end ofAugust resulting in flooding andmore than 240 dead or missil!g.The one-day rainfall of about 870mm. the greatest since 1911. wasrecorded at G~mgneung there.The cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean was

characterised by a slightly higherthan average number of cycloneswith 13 formations versus 10 for anormal year. An intense tropicalcyclone named Dina brought arecord 24-hour precipitationamount of 745 mm over Mauritiusin 24 hours with winds reaching228 km per hour.

G~oq"'-\00'-'" -0.4u~ -06'"::s :-0.8o

Sehra P. S.U.tI0.6 (a) Globe. 1861 - 20020.4

1880 . ..1900 2000920 1940 1960 1980

0.8G 0.6" (b)N.Hemisphere,1861- 2002~ .o 0.40'8 0.20'- 0.0E -0.2.B ~ 4c .'"~ -~6'3 ~B

0.8~ 0.6~ 0.4-\00'-c 0.02~ -0.2'"g -0.4'" .~ -0.6is -08

1880 , .1900 J.1920 2000,... ~ .~ ; ~- ...,~ : '- -.. - -. .1940 1960 1980

(c) S. Hemisphere. 1861 - 2002j .

.. . ~.. "_~."'h.. _.~--- n"'-"_- . - ..---1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Fig. 1. Annual combined land surface air and sea surface temperature


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west monsoon in Bangladesh,eastern India and Nepal was alsoactive leading to severe flooding inparts of the region with about 1000fatalities.

Stratospheric ozone and theantarctic ozone hole: Very lowtemperatures activate chemicalprocesses which in the presence ofsunlight result in rapid depletion ofstratospheric ozone, for whichemissions from supersonic aircrafts.chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFCs) andenvironmental pollutiuo, etc., aremainly responsible. It causes serioushealth hazards due to solar ultra-violet (UV) radiation reaching theearth's surface which otherwise isabsorbed by the ozone.Depletion of stratospheric ozone

causes a hole in the atmospherethrough which the solar UVradiation can pass and reach theearth's surface resulting ir variousdiseases including skin cancer forthe living beings. The creation ofAntarctic Ozone Hole is an exampleof this phenomena.During 2002, the Antarcticozone hole was the smallest since

1988. In early September. the hole


o.aU (J.nLo0:' 0.4....~ 0.2....E 0.0g80.2c~ 04.~6 0.6

0BU Of,L~ 01\....~ 0.2....E 002- .0.2Q)u&5 0.1\~ -066 .0.8

o'"~ 00'"....E .02o..:: OA~c~ () 6~

(d) Tropics, 1861 - 2002137

1880 1900.. - . .. . .J._.- ...,-, -

2000-", _..~ - --., -'" -1920 1940 1960 1980

(e) N. Hemisphere, N of 20N, 1861 - 2002

'" -...--......-....

1880 1900- - l ' o J,.1980

Q.4

1920 .,2000940 1960

(f) S. Hemisphere, S of 205, 1861 - 2002

":'.~;::~~W;i"


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observation period since 1978. Themost significant climatic anomaliesand events which took place overthe globe in the year 2002 arediscussed by Anonymous (2003e).

Global crop production in2002: In 2002, wheat productionincreased in countries in theEuropean Union. Kazakhstan.Russia, Turkey, India, the IslamicRepublic of Iran and Pakistan anddeclined in Argentina, Australia,Brazil. Canada, China. EasternEurope, Mexico. Morocco. SouthAfrica. Tunisia, Ukraine and theUSA, as shown in Fig. 2(Anonymous. 2002). Likewise.coarse grain production increased inAustralia, China. South Africa.Turkey and Ukraine and declined inAlgeria. Argentina. Brazil, Canada,Eastern Europe, Countries of theEuropean Union. India. Kazakhstan,Mexico, Morocco. Russia and theUSA

In the USA wheat productionwas down by 17 per cent from the2001 level. Drought on the greatplains contributed to the sharpproduction decline. US wheatproduction was the lowest since

SehraP.S.

by 8 per cent from the previous yeardue to improved growing conditionsin the main producing province ofOntario. Mexican corn productiondecreased by nearly 7 per cent dueto lack of summer rains.

In Russia. winter wheat typicallyaccounts for about 50 per cent oftotal wheat production with springwheat contributing the remaining50 per cent. An increase in areaplanted to winter wheat, along withanother season of overall favourablegrowing conditions resulted in a 6per cent from increase in total

virtually unchanged from theprevious year. Spring barleyproduction rose by 3 per cent whilecorn production rose by 11 per centfrom the previous year due to moreadvantageous weather conditions atpollination.

In K~zakhstan, most of thewheat grown in the country is springvarieties, which increased by 3 percent from the previous year due totimely rains during the growingseason.

However, coarse grain


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respectively. In Germany, however,wet weather during the filling andharvest periods caused wheatproduction to decrease by nearly 9per cent despite increase in area andthe coarse grain production declinednearly by 16 per cent due toexcessively wet weather duringmaturation and harvesting. InFrance, favourable weather boostedcoarse grain production by nearly 7per cent. On the whole, EuropeanUnion's 2002 grain production wasvirtually unchanged from its 2001levels.Across Eastern Europe, wheat

production decreased by 11 percent due to decreased planting areaand adverse weather, whereas thecoarse grain production (mainlywinterbarleyand corn)decreasedby-nearly5 per cent fromthe lastyear'slevels due to the same reasons. InHungary, drought reduced cornproductionby 22 per cent.In north-western Africa and the

middle east, timely growing seasonrainfall in Morocco kept wheatproductionat the 2001 levels,while


coarse grain production rose by 32per cent. However, the combinationof drought and lower planting areasresulted in a decline of 30 and 62per cetn in wheat production and30 and 53 per cent in coarse grainproduction in Algeria and Tunisia,respectively.In South Asia, wheat production

in India rose by 5 per cent in 2002due to an increase in area and goodwinter weather conditions, whereascoarse grain production was lowerby 21 per cent.

UTERATURE CITEDAnonymous, 2003 a. The global climate

system in 2002. WorldMeteorol.Org.Bullet.52 (3):290-295.~Anonymous,2003 b. Globalcropproductionreview, 2002. World Meteorol. Org.Bullet.52 (3): 295-299.

Boodhod, Y. 2003. Our future climate.WorldMeteorol. Org. Bullet. 52 (3) :224-228.Cornford, S. G. 2003. The socio-economlcimpacts of weather events in 2002.WorldMeteorol.Org. Bullet.52 (3) :269-290.Fischer. A. and J. Staehelin, 2003 C. TheAntarctic ozone hole: 1996-2002.

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World Meteorol. Org. Bullet. 52 (3) :264-269.Folland. C. K, N. A. Rayner, S. J. Brown, T.

M. Smith. S. S. P. Shen, D. E. Parker, 1.Macadam, P. D. Jones, R. N. Jones, N.Nicholls and D. M. H. Sexton. 2001.Global temperature change and itsuncertainties since 1861. GeophysicalRes. Lett. 28 : 2621-2624.

Horton, E. B., D. E. Parker and L. V.Alexander. 2003. Global and regionalclimate in 2002. Weather. 58 (9) : 324-336.Jones, P. O. 1994. Hemisphericsurface airtemperature variations: A reanalysisandan updateto 1993.J. Climate,1 :1794-1802.

Jones. P.D., T.J. Osborn,K R.Briffa,C.KFolland, E. B. Horton, L. V.Alexander,D. E. Parker and N. A.Rayner. 2001. Adjustingfor samplingdensity in grid-boxland ocean surfacetemperature time series. J. GeophysicalRes. 106: 3371-3380.

Parker,D. E., C. K Follandand M.Jackson.1995. Marine surface temperature:Observed variations and datarequirements. Climatic Change. 31 :559-600.

Sehra, P. S. 1976. Atmosphericstructure:Exploration over Antarctica andInterhemispheric comparison. Ph. D.thesis. Submited to Gujarat University,Ahmedabad,India,pp. 286.

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Climate and Its Impact on Global Crop Production