Upload
ta7465
View
221
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
1/21
>
Nqqdqq`devkcSthedznjghgvw
kcAzkp
_zkftavgkevkAhg`nvdAmneld
Nbgk VNBD@KVK Gevdlznvdf Zdqdnzam Qwqvd` ckz Qtqvngenjghgvw Qagdead
-GZ1Q'( Tegsdzqgvw kc Vkbwk
Dakek`gaq kc Ahg`nvd Amneld nef Hk| Anzjke Lzk|vm Qvznvdlgdq ge Ekzvmdnqv NqgnIN_NEq :ef ENVGKENH \KZBQMK_ 6 Eksd`jdz :?>? Mghvke Mkvdh Vkbwk( Inpne
Jneinz`nqge Gefkedqgn( @nw :?>?
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
2/21
^tdqvgkeq
Mk| `tam gq azkp pzkftavgke sthedznjhd ge dnam
aktevzw;Mk| `tam fkdq ahg`nvd snzgnjghgvw nccdav azkp
pzkftavgke;
Mk| `tam fkdq kvmdz cnavkzq -qkagkdakek`ga cnavkzq'nccdav azkp pzkftavgke;
Mk| vk `dnqtzd sthedznjghgvw;
Mk| `tam gq vmd sthedznjghgvw fdcdzdev jdv|dde
aktevzgdq;
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
3/21
Nqgn _nagcga Ahg`nvd Amneld Nfnpvnvgke Ckzt`
:?:>( Kavkjdz( :?>?( Jnelbkb
467 pnzvgagpnevq
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
4/21
>% Sdzvganh Gevdlznvgke @thvghdsdh Lksdzenead( Qagdeadnef _khgaw
:% Mkzgykevnh Gevdlznvgke Azkqq Qdavkznh _khgaw _hneegelnef G`phd`devnvgke
1% Cgeneagel Nfnpvnvgke # Ngf Dccdavgsdedqq6% Zkhd kc Qagdead ge Nfnpvgsd Fdsdhkp`dev4% Sthedznjghgvwjnqdf Nfnpvnvgke3% @nzbdvjnqdf @damnegq` vk Nfnpvnvgke
?% Anpnagvw Eddfq ckz @ngeqvzdn`gel
Vmd`dq kc _nznhhdhh Qdqqgkeq
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
5/21
Akeadpv kc Sthedznjghgvw Jnqdf NfnpvnvgkeJnnq dv nh%( -:?>?( ckzvmak`gel
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
6/21
Mk| vk `dnqtzd sthedznjghgvw kc azkp pzkftavgke;@dne snhtdq -jnqdhged' kc azkp wgdhfqSnzgnjghgvw kc azkp wgdhfq
Neetnhamneldkcwgdhfqkcnhhazkpq-bl+mn' ->7=::??3'
-Vnbd`kvk(:?>?2CNK(:??7'
Dnqv Nqgn # Dtzkpd
Qktvmdnqv Nqgn
@kelkhgn # Nczgan
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
7/21
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
8/21
@dvmkf vk `dnqtzd sthedznjghgvw kc azkp pzkftavgke
Az-g' 0 rwAz-g' Az -g'+Az -g'0 rwAz-g' -nAz}-g' " jAz'+Az -g'Az-g' 9 neetnh snzgnjghgvw kc azkp wgdhf
Az-g' qvnefq ckz vmd dqvg`nvdf dzzkz czk` vmd zdlzdqqgke
snhtd -Az-g'' anhathnvdf czk` vg`d qdzgdq kc azkp wgdhf ge
vmd wdnz g -wAz
-g''(
SAz0 r Az-g' p:
SAz9 sthedznjghgvw kc azkp pzkftavgke 0snzgnead kcAz-g'
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
9/21
@dvmkf vk `dnqtzd g`pnavq kc ahg`nvd snzgnjghgvw ke azkp wgdhf
Qg`phd zdlzdqqgke
Az-g' 0 >V`-g' " >
Az-g' 0 :_z-g' " :Az-g' 0 1 Fw-g' "1
V`-g' 0 rwV`-g' p+QFV`
_z-g' 0 rw_z-g' p +QF_z
Fw-g' 0 rwFw-g' p +QFFw
Akzzdhnvgke akdccgagdev jdv|dde Az-g' nef V`-g' 0 AVAz-g' nef _z-g ' 0 A_(Az-g' nef Fw-g' 0 AF
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
10/21
@dvmkf vk `dnqtzd g`pnavq kc ahg`nvd snzgnjghgvw ke azkp wgdhf
@thvgphd zdlzdqqgkeq
Az-g' 0 n>
V`-g' " j>
_z-g' " f>
9V_: Zdlzdqqgke @kfdh
Az-g' 0 n:V`-g' "a:Fw-g' " f: 9VF: Zdlzdqqgke @kfdh
Z: qvnvgqvga anhathnvdf czk` vmdqd zdlzdqqgke `kfdhq zdpzdqdevq
znvgk kc g`pnavq kc ahg`nvd snzgnjghgvw vk snzgnead -SAz'% Vk fdcgedZ: nq vmd ahg`nvd g`pnav znvgk%
Vk mwpkvmdqgyd vmnv zdqgftd kcahg`nvd g`pnav znvgk -> Z:'
zdpzdqdevq qkagkdakek`ga g`pnav znvgk vk sthedznjghgvw kc
azkp pzkftavgke( |mkqd g`pnav gq gzzdhdsnev vk ahg`nvgasnzgnvgke%
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
11/21
14
Z:Ahg`nvd g`pnav znvgk
Vnjhd 1@n}g`t` ahg`nvd g`pnav znvgk -Z:' n`kel cktz qg}`kevm pdzgkfq anhathnvdf jw
V_: nef VF: `kfdhq% Cgltzdq ge vmd pnzdevmdqdq qmk|q pdzgkfq nv vmd mglmdqv Z:%
Qmnfdf akht`eq qmk| vmd mglmdz znvgk jdv|dde v|k `kfdhq%
Zdlgkeq Aktevzgdq
V_:gefdpdefdevsnhtnjhdq9 `dne
vd`pdznvtzd nef n`ktev
kc pzdagpgvnvgke
VF:gefdpdefdev
snhtnjhdq9 `dne
vd`pdznvtzd nef et`jdz
kc fnwq ksdz >``
pzdagpgvnvgke
Dnqv NqgnInpne ?%?' ?%:=-1='
Qktvmdnqv Nqgn
Sgdven` ?%6:-4>?' ?%:6->3'
@nhnwqgn ?%>1-:' ?%?3-1='
_mghgppgedq ?%>6-:' ?%>4-:'
Gefkedqgn ?%43-4>?' ?%64-1='
@gffhd Dnqv
Qntfg Nznjgn ?%?7-4>?' ?%?4->3'
Qwzgne N%Z% ?%>=-1=' ?%:7->3'
Dlwpv?%>4->3' ?%>4-1='
\dqv # Qktvm
Dtzkpd
TB ?%1:-1=' ?%6=-1='
Ldz`new ?%63-1=' ?%13-1='
Edvmdzhnef ?%1:-1=' ?%64-1='
Gvnhw ?%>4-4>?' ?%::-4>?'
Lzddad ?%?3-:' ?%?7-:'
Ekzvm Nczgan
Nhldzgn ?%:1->3' ?%67->3'
@kzkaak ?%?7-4>?' ?%13->3'
Vtegqgn ?%>7->3' ?%63'
\dqv Nczgan
Jdege ?%?3->3' ?%?=-1='
Vklk ?%:3' ?%:=->3'
Jtzbgen Cnqk ?%47-:' ?%47-1='
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
12/21
11
Qgelhdzdlzdqqgke9
Akzzdhnvgkeakdccgagdev
9Azkp
wgdhf sq% Vd`pdznvtzd
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
13/21
16
Wgdhf sq% N`ktev kc pzdagpgvnvgke -tp'
Wgdhf sq% Et`jdz kc fnwq kc pzdagpgvnvgke -fk|e'
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
14/21
Cgltzd Qvnefnzfgydf pnzvgnh akdccgagdevq anhathnvdf jw V_: `kfdh%
Vmd aktevzgdq ge |mgam vmd `n}g`t`Z: gq ksdz ?%1? nzd qdhdavdf%
\mgam cnavkz -vd`pdznvtzd + _zdagpgvnvgke' fkdq nccdav
pzdfk`genevhw ksdz azkp pzkftavgsgvw;V_:
Zdf 9 Vd`pdznvtzd( Jhtd9 N`ktev kc pzdagpgvnvgke
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
15/21
Cgltzd Qvnefnzfgydf pnzvgnh akdccgagdevq anhathnvdf jw VF: `kfdh%
Vmd aktevzgdq ge |mgam vmd `n}g`t`Z: gq ksdz ?%1? nzd qdhdavdf%
Zdf 9 Vd`pdznvtzd( Lzdde 9 Et`jdz kc fnwq ksdz >`` pzdagpgvnvgke
VF:
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
16/21
Cgltzd Aktevzw ak`pnzgqke kc snzgnead kcAz-g'-SAz' nefZ: fdzgsdf czk` v|k
vwpdq kc `thvgphd zdlzdqqgke `kfdhq-jhtd pkzvgkeq'% Sdzvganh n}gq gq qmk|e gehklnzgvm`ga fgqphnw%
Qgyd kc sthedznjghgvw kc azkp pzkftavgkenef qmnzd kc ahg`nvd g`pnav cnavkz
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
17/21
Cgltzd Aktevzw ak`pnzgqke kc snzgnead kc Az-g'-SAz' nef Z: fdzgsdf czk` v|k
vwpdq kc `thvgphd zdlzdqqgke `kfdhq -jhtd pkzvgkeq'% Sdzvganh n}gq gq qmk|e ge
hklnzgvm`ga fgqphnw%
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
18/21
4>
Qt``nzw zdlgkenhamnznavdzgqvgaqkesthedznjghgvwkeazkppzkftavgke
Ahg`nvd g`pnav znvgk Z: gq Zdhnvgsdhw mglm ge qk`d kc Nqgne zdlgke -Inpne( Sgdven` nef Gefkedqgn'(
\dqv Dtzkpd( Ekzvm Nczgan( nef Jtzbgen Cnqk( |mghd zdhnvgsdhw hk| ge qk`d kc
vmd ckhhk|gel zdlgkeq -Qktvmdnqv Nqgn( @gffhd Dnqv( Qkvtm Dtzkpd nef \dqv
Nczgan'% Ldedznhhw( zngecnhh lgsdq `kzd g`pnavq vk azkp pzkftavgke vmne vd`pdznvtzd%
Gv gq qtlldqvdf mdnsw zngecnhh fdazdnqdq azkp wgdhf ge Dnqv Nqgn( \dqv Dtzkpd(
|mghd qmkzvnld kc zngecnhh fdazdnqdq gv ge qtam nzdnq nq Ekzvm Nczgan%
Sthedznjghgvw kc azkp pzkftavgke Saz gq zdhnvgsdhw mglm ge Qwzgn( Qntfg Nznjgn nef Ekzvm+\dqv Nczgan( |mghd hk| ge
Dnqv+Qktvmdnqv Nqgn( Dlwpv nef \dqv Dtzkpd%
Vwpdq kc sthedznjghgvw
Ahg`nvd cnavkz -Saz)Z
:
' |kthf jd zdhnvgsdhw mglm ge Inpne( |dqv Dtzkpd( EkzvmNczgan( pnzv kc @gffhd Dnqv nef pnzv kc \dqv Nczgan%
Qkagkdakek`ga cnavkz -Saz)->Z:'' |kthf jd zdhnvgsdhw mglm ge @gffhd Dnqv(
Ekzvm Nczgan nef pnzv kc Qktvmdnqv Nqgn( Qktvm Dtzkpd nef \dqv Nczgan%
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
19/21
_kgevq vk jd g`pzksdf Fdvnghgeckz`nvgkejnqdfkeqtzsdwqgednamaktevzw
^tnevgvnvgsdnenhwqgq
ke
sthedznjghgvw
kcazkp
pzkftavgkefdzgsdfczk`qkagkdakek`ga
cnavkzq
Ctzvmdzfdsdhkp`dev
kcGefganvkzq
vk
`dnqtzd
sthedznjghgvwkcvkahg`nvdamneld
kvmdzq
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
20/21
Vmneb wkt ckz wktz nvvdevgke.
8/8/2019 Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop Production to Climate Change
21/21
Nzdn mnzsdqvdf Fnvn zdcdz vk vmd nzdn czk` |mgam n azkp gq lnvmdzdf%Nzdn mnzsdqvdf( vmdzdckzd( d}ahtfdq vmd nzdn czk` |mgam( nhvmktlm
qk|e kz phnevdf( vmdzd |nq ek mnzsdqv ftd vk fn`nld( cnghtzd( dva% Gvgq tqtnhhw edv ckz vd`pkznzw azkpq nef qk`d vg`dq lzkqq ckzpdz`nedev azkpq% Edv nzdn fgccdzq czk` lzkqq nzdn geqkcnz nq vmdhnvvdz geahtfdq teathvgsnvdf pnvamdq( ckkvpnvmq( fgvamdq( mdnfhnefq(qmkthfdzq( qmdhvdzjdhvq( dva% Gc vmd azkp tefdz akeqgfdznvgke gqmnzsdqvdf `kzd vmne kead ftzgel vmd wdnz nq n akeqd~tdead kcqtaadqqgsd azkppgel -g%d% vmd qn`d azkp gq qk|e kz phnevdf `kzdvmne kead ge vmd qn`d cgdhf ftzgel vmd wdnz'( vmd nzdn gq aktevdf nq`new vg`dq nq mnzsdqvdf% Ke vmd akevznzw( nzdn mnzsdqvdf |ghh jd
zdakzfdf kehw kead ge vmd anqd kc qtaadqqgsd lnvmdzgel kc vmd azkpftzgel vmd wdnz czk` vmd qn`d qvnefgel azkpq% \gvm zdlnzf vk `g}dfnef nqqkagnvdf azkpq( vmd nzdn qk|e zdhnvgel vk dnam azkp qmkthfjd zdpkzvdf qdpnznvdhw% \mde vmd `g}vtzd zdcdzq vk pnzvgathnz azkpq(ldedznhhw lzngeq( gv gq zdak``defdf vk vzdnv vmd `g}vtzd nq gc gv |dzdn qgelhd azkp2 vmdzdckzd( nzdn qk|e gq zdakzfdf kehw ckz vmd azkpzdpkzvdf% -czk`CNKQVNV'