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Clean Energy Technology, R&D Clean Energy Technology, R&D and Innovationand Innovation
Dr. Harlan WatsonSenior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative
U.S. Department of State
Climate Change and Sustainable Development:An international workshop to strengthen research
and understandingSession 5: “Options for Response Measures”
Magnolia Hall, Indian Habitat CentreNew Delhi, India
April 8, 2006
OverviewOverview• Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the
atmosphere—the “ultimate objective of the UNFCCC confronts several realities, including:
Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a Long-Term Issue.Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for Decades.Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption for the Foreseeable Future.Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required. Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable
• U.S. domestic and international efforts to develop and deploy cleaner technologies.
Reality 1Reality 1——Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations is a LongConcentrations is a Long--Term IssueTerm Issue
• Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs is a very long-term issue—decades to a century or more time scale.
• Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.
Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle)
Reality 2Reality 2——Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for DecadesDominant Energy Source for Decades
• ScenariosWorld Energy Demand ProjectionsWorld EnergyWorld Energy--Related CORelated CO22 Emissions ProjectionsEmissions Projections
• Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Not Go Away On Its Own.
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear powerHydro power
Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
eIEA World Energy Outlook 2004Reference Scenario:
Source: Fatih Birol (IEA)Fatih Birol (IEA)
• Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the ~60% growth in energy demand between now and 2030.
World Primary Energy DemandWorld Primary Energy Demand
IEA World Energy Outlook 2004Reference Scenario:
Source: Fatih Birol (IEA)Fatih Birol (IEA)
• Global emissions projected grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s.
World EnergyWorld Energy--Related CORelated CO22 EmissionsEmissions
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
2
Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Plentiful Fossil Fuels Means Problem Will Not Go Away On Its OwnNot Go Away On Its Own
Unconventional Liquids and Gases
Coal
14
Carbon Reservoirs
BiomassBiomass~500 ~500 GtCGtC
SoilsSoils~1,500 ~1,500 GtCGtC
Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004)
OilOil~270 ~270 GtCGtC2
N. GasN. Gas~260 ~260 GtCGtC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels: 15,000 to 40,000 GtC
CoalCoal5,000 to 8,000 GtC5,000 to 8,000 GtC
Sources: Jae Edmonds (Battelle) and NebojNebojšša Nakia Nakiććenovienovićć (IIASA)(IIASA)
Reality 3Reality 3——CanCan’’t Expect Developing t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption
for the Foreseeable Futurefor the Foreseeable Future
• Overriding priority for developing countries, is poverty reduction => Economic growth => Increase in Energy Consumption => Increase in Emissions.
In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.Source: Fatih Birol Fatih Birol
(IEA)(IEA)
Reality 4Reality 4——No No ““Silver BulletSilver Bullet””: Broad : Broad Portfolio of Technologies RequiredPortfolio of Technologies Required
Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels• Energy intensity• Nuclear• Renewables
The “Gap”
“Gap” Technologies• More of All of the
Above• Biological
Sequestration• Carbon Capture and
Disposal• Hydrogen and
Advanced Transportation
• Biotechnologies
Source: Jae Edmonds (Battelle)
Atmospheric GHG Concentrations Stabilized
Global Carbon Emissions
Reality 5Reality 5——ChallengeChallenge is Formidableis Formidable
Source: Rob Socolow (Princeton)
Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton/year of Mitigation• Coal: Carbon capture and storage at 800 1 GW coal power plants.
• Nuclear: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power
• Geologic Sequestration: 3,500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr (~100 x U.S. CO2injection rate for EOR).
• Biofuels: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland)
• Efficency: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
• Wind: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. (Today~50,000 MW).
• Solar PV: 2000 GWpeak (700 times current capacity) and 2 million hectares of land.
U.S. Climate Change U.S. Climate Change Policy Policy ComponentsComponents
• Slowing the Growth of Net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions.
National Goal: Reduce GHG Intensity by 18% Over 10-Year Period (2002-2012).
140
150
160
170
180
190
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
No Improvement (183 tons in 2002)
Current Efforts (14%)
National Goal (18% decline to
151 tons in 2012)
Met
ric T
ons C
arbo
n Eq
uiva
lent
Per
M
illio
n D
olla
rs G
DP,
200
1 D
olla
rs
• Laying the Groundwork for Current and Future Action: Investments in Science and Technology.
Climate Change Science Program (~$2 billion/year)Climate Change Technology Program (~$3 billion/year)
• Promoting International Cooperation.
Address climate change within a broader development agenda—one that promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security, reduces air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.
NearNear--Term Domestic ActionsTerm Domestic Actions• More than 60 Federal mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs
designed to help reduce emissions by more than 500 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent from BAU through 2012. Examples of mandatory and incentive-based programs include:
Fuel Economy Standards Clean Air RulesEnergy Efficiency Standards Biological SequestrationRenewable Energy/CHP Tax Incentives Nuclear Plant RelicensingHybrid/Fuel Cell Vehicle Tax Incentives Nuclear Power 2010
• Numerous U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) voluntary programs to help consumers andcorporations reduce their GHG emissions, such as:
ENERGY STAR Methane Programs CHP* Partnership SmartWay Transport Partnership Climate Leaders Climate VISION
• U.S. Fiscal Year 2007 budget request of about $5 billion for climate change programs plus energy tax incentives:
Supports the near-term objective and future actions through major investments in science and technology.
*Combined Heat and Power
Domestic Clean Air PolicyDomestic Clean Air Policy• CLEAR SKIES: Reduce Power Plant Pollution (Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen
Oxides, and Mercury) by 70% below 2003 levels by 2018Market-Based Cap and Trade SystemUS Fleet of Coal-Fired Power Plants — 1,300 NationwideTwo Phases Provides Regulatory Certainty for Capital Planning Decisions Promotes Technology Innovation and Cost ReductionPromotes Clean Coal and Relieves Pressure On Natural Gas Usage$50+ Billion in Pollution Controls, Efficiency Upgrades$100+ Billion Health SavingsHigh Compliance — Low BureaucracyMinimal electricity price impact (~ 1,7-3%)
• CLEAN DIESEL RULES — Reduce Diesel Engine Pollution by 90%+Performance Standard — Promotes InnovationFuel Sulfur Dioxide Reduced 99+% in 2007New Engine Nitrogen Oxide Reduced 90%Large Trucks, Construction and Farm Equipment, Locomotives, Marine Vessels Commercially Feasible TimelinesAssures Reliability and Affordability of New EnginesEnables Larger U.S. Market in Fuel Efficient Vehicles (up to 30% improved fuel economy)
Energy Policy Act of 2005Energy Policy Act of 2005Tax IncentivesTax Incentives
Incentives: $14.5 billionOffsets: $3 billionTotal: $11.5 billion
Climate Change TechnologyClimate Change TechnologyProgram (CCTP)Program (CCTP)
• ~ $3 Billion/Year
• Goals
Reduce Emissions from Energy End-Use and InfrastructureReduce Emissions from Energy Supply Capture and Sequester CO2Reduce Emissions of Non- CO2 GHGsImprove Capabilities to Measure and Monitor GHG EmissionsBolster Basic Science Contributions to Technology Development.
• CCTP Vision & Framework provides:
Overall Guidance and Strategic DirectionVision, Mission, Goals and ApproachesGroundwork for Portfolio Prioritization“Next Steps” for CCTPOversight & Management Controls
www.climatetechnology.gov
Near-Term Mid-Term Long-TermCCTP GoalsGoal #1 Energy End-Use& Infrastructure
Goal #2 Energy Supply
Goal #3 Capture, Storage& Sequestration
Goal 4 Other Gases
• Hybrid & Clean Diesel Vehicles• High-Efficiency Appliances• High-Performance Buildings• High-Efficiency Industrial
Processes & Boilers• Modernized Grids
• Wind, Hydro, Solar & Geothermal
• Biomass, Biodiesel, Clean Fuels• Distributed Electric Generation • IGCC Coal Plants• Stationary H2 Fuel Cells • Enhanced Nuclear Power
• CSLF & Regional Partnerships• Oxy-Fuel Combustion• Enhanced Oil Recovery• Reforestation• Soils Conservation
• Methane to Markets• Alternatives to High GWP
Gases• Bioreactor Landfill Technology
• H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles• High-Efficiency Aviation• Net-Zero Buildings • Expanded Solid-State Lighting• Transformational Technologies for
Energy-Intensive Industries• Advanced Energy Storage &
Controls
• Large-Scale Wind Power• Community-Scale Solar• Bio-Fuels, Bio-Refineries• Advanced Bio-Refining of Cellulose
& Biomass• FutureGen Scale-Up• Gen IV Nuclear Energy
• Improved CO2 Capture• Safe Geologic Storage • Environmental Guidelines• Bio-Based & Recycled Products• Soils Uptake & Land Use
• Methane Emissions Reduction• Precision Agriculture• PFC Substitutes
• Net-Zero Communities• Low-Emission Intelligent Transport
Systems• Low-Emission Industrial Production• Closed-Cycle Products & Materials• Low-Loss Energy Transmission &
Distribution
• Widespread Renewable Energy• Bio-Inspired Energy & Fuels• Zero-Emission Fossil Energy• H2 & Electric Economy• Widespread Safe Nuclear Energy• Fusion Power Deployment
• CO2 as Commodity Chemical • Large Global CO2 Storage• Large-Scale Sequestration• Carbon-Based Products & Materials
• Low Emissions of Other GHGs• Low-Emission Agriculture• Genetically Designed Forages &
Bacteria
Roadmap for CC Technology DevelopmentRoadmap for CC Technology Development
H2 + Fuel Cells
Clean Fossil
Sequestration
Nuclear Energy
Fusion Energy, ITEREnergy Efficiency RD&D
Transmission & Distribution
Renewable Energy
Other CCTP RD&D Areas
Deployment**
CCTP Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request*Portfolio of RD&D and Deployment: $2.987 Million
($649 M)
($25 M)
($395 M)
($103 M)
($320 M)($319 M)
($397 M)
($137 M)
($321 M)
($322 M)
** Deployment is 79% Energy Efficiency*All CCTP Federal Agencies Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request
Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request:Fiscal Year 2007 Budget Request:CCTP PortfolioCCTP Portfolio
International PartnershipsInternational Partnerships• Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)―22 members:
Focused on CO2 capture & storage technologies.
• International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE)―17 members: Organizes, coordinates, and leverages hydrogen RD&D programs.
• Generation IV International Forum (GIF)―1 members: Devoted to R&D of next generation of nuclear systems.
• Methane to Markets Partnership―17 members: Recovery and use of methane from landfills, mines, and oil & gas systems.
• ITER―7 members: Project to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy.
• Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP)―17 countries working to enhance the delivery of clean and secure energy through the use of renewable resources and energy efficiency programs in the developed and developing world.
• 49.0% of World GDP (Purchasing Power Parities)
•• 45.4% of World Population
• 46.2% of World Total Primary Energy Consumption
• 50.2% of World CO2 Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Consumption and Flaring
Six Partners in 2003: (Australia, China, India, Japan,Republic of Korea, and the United States) accounted for:
• 64.4% of World Coal Production
• 63.6% of World Coal Consumption
• 45.6% of World Petroleum Consumption
• 49.3% of World Total Net Electricity Generation
• 49.4% of World Total Net Electricity Consumption
Sources: International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions for Fuel Combustion: 1971-2003. 2005 Edition; and Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003
AsiaAsia--Pacific Partnership on Clean Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and ClimateDevelopment and Climate
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
• Voluntary practical measures taken by these six countries in the Asia-Pacific region to create new investment opportunities, build local capacity, and remove barriers to the introduction of clean, moreefficient technologies.
• Help each country meet nationally-designed strategies for improving energy security, reducing pollution, and addressing the long-term challenge of climate change.
• Promote the development and deployment of existing and emerging cleaner, more efficient technologies and practices that will achieve practical results in areas such as:
Energy EfficiencyClean CoalNatural GasBioenergy
Methane Capture/UseCivilian Nuclear PowerGeothermalAgriculture/Forestry
Rural/Village Energy SystemsAdvanced TransportationHydro/Wind/Solar PowerBuilding/Home Construction/Operation
• Seek opportunities to engage the private sector.
FocusFocus
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
Policy and Implementation Committee(USA, Chair)
CleanerFossil
EnergyTask Force
Australia (Chair)China
(Co-Chair)
PowerGeneration
AndTransmission
USA(Chair)China
(Co-Chair)
AluminiumTask Force
Australia(Chair)
USA(Co-Chair)
Coal MiningTask Force
USA(Chair)India
(Co-Chair)
RenewableEnergy
and DistributedGenerationTask Force
Korea(Chair)
Australia(Co-Chair)
SteelTask Force
Japan(Chair)India
Co-Chair)
CementTask Force
Japan(Chair)
BuildingsAnd
AppliancesTask Force
Korea(Chair)
USA(Co-Chair)
Administrative Support Group(USA)
OrganizationOrganization
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
Next StepsNext Steps• Policy and Implementation Committee and Task Forces will meet April
18-21 in Berkeley, California.
• Task Forces to begin development of Action Plans — “blueprints” for action — for the private sector and governments.
Strategic framework for identifying opportunities (technologies and practices) and implementing priority actions to advance clean development and climate goals.Identification of specific opportunities (technologies and practices) for cooperation and barriers to these opportunities.Establishment of ambitious and realistic results-oriented goals for both immediate and medium-term specific actions, with measurement systems to gauge progress toward achieving the goals.
• We are seeking actions that are both broad and deep, including both technology development and deployment.
• Action Plans to be completed by mid-2006, with implementation to begin at start of Fiscal Year 2007 (October 1, 2006).
SummarySummary• Stabilization of greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations in the atmosphere—the
“ultimate objective of the UNFCCC confronts several realities, including:
Reality 1—Stabilizing GHG Atmospheric Concentrations Is a Long-Term Issue.Reality 2—Fossil Fuels Will Remain the Dominant Energy Source for Decades.Reality 3—Can’t Expect Developing Countries to Reduce Energy Consumption for the Foreseeable Future.Reality 4—No “Silver Bullet”: Broad Portfolio of Technologies Required.Reality 5—Challenge is Formidable.
• U.S. addresses climate change within a broader development agenda—one that promotes economic growth, reduces poverty, provides energy security, reduces air pollution, and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.
• Seeks to accelerate near-term deployment of cleaner technologies through a mix of mandatory, incentive-based, and voluntary programs, and working through international partnerships, with emphasis on public-private partnerships.
• Seeks to develop “breakthrough” cleaner technologies through government-funded RD&D programs domestically, and working through international partnerships, again emphasizing public-private partnerships where feasible.