This report is produced quarterly by the City of Thornton’s Policy Planning Division to provide up-to-date details on three subjects regarding

the city’s growth: an estimate of the city’s population, the city’s current housing count, and an assessment of anticipated housing unit

construction.

*The City’s quarterly estimating process has been adjusted to better align with third party population estimates produced by the US Census

and the Colorado State Demographer’s office. To achieve this, staff has adjusted tenure rates, vacancy rates, average household sizes, and

housing unit counts.

*A certificate of occupancy certifies that a building is in compliance with applicable building codes and is suitable for occupancy.

4Q’17 QUARTERLY HOUSING & POPULATION REPORT

CITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT

DATE PUBLISHED: January 11, 2018

Please contact the Policy Planning Division with any feedback or questions, 303-538-7295.

October 1, 2017 - December 31, 2017

SUMMARY:

The total population estimate at the end of the fourth quarter 2017 is 137,443, which reflects

an addition of 869 people since the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, 303 new Certificates of Occupancy (COs) were combined with

existing housing unit counts, bringing Thornton’s residential unit total to 47,801

HIGHLIGHTS:

Ward 1: Had no COs for the tenth quarter in a row.

Ward 3: 142 SFD COs, a slight increase from the previous quarter.

Ward 3 & Ward 4 continue to see the greatest share of development gains in residential COs.

Overall: 20 MF COs, a slight increase from the previous quarter.

Overall: 303 COs: Higher than the 4th quarter average of 157 (2006-2016).

Table 1

Certificates of Occupancy Issued in Each Ward, fourth Quarter, 2017

SFD SFA MF Total

Ward 1 0 0 0 0

Ward 2 23 8 20 51

Ward 3 142 37 0 179

Ward 4 44 29 0 73

Total 209 74 20 303

FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT

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I. POPULATION ESTIMATE

The population estimate for the quarter is updated based on the number of Certificates of

Occupancy (COs) issued during the previous three months. A CO is a document that certifies a

building is in compliance with applicable building codes and suitable for occupancy. For each CO

issued, a new housing unit is added to the housing count. The housing unit count is then combined

with estimated rates by housing type to produce a population count.

Figure 1. indicates the total population

in each ward at the end of the fourth

quarter 2017. The number of people

estimated to have moved into the ward

is in parentheses and is included in the

total.

Figure 1

Population Increase by Ward, fourth Quarter 2017

Population

Estimate: 137,443

Change: +869

Pop: 36,031

(+210)

Pop: 33,550

(+513)

Pop: 33,366

(+0)

Pop: 34,496

(+146)

FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT

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II. HOUSING ESTIMATE

Quarterly housing growth is determined by tracking Certificates of Occupancy (COs) issued during

the previous three months. The number of new COs issued is then added to the city’s existing

housing count to provide the new housing estimate. Figure 2 and Table 2 below include total COs by

housing type over the previous 5 years.

Table 3 Housing Counts by Ward fourth quarter, 2017

Housing By Ward

Table 3 below indicates housing counts by ward at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017. Single-

family detached units continue to constitute the majority of Thornton’s housing at 62 percent.

Figure 3 on the following page displays the geographic distribution of housing types by ward.

Wards 2, 3, and 4 each have a majority of single-family detached units, while Ward 1 has a more

balanced distribution of housing types.

Fourth Quarter 2017

Housing Inventory Count: 47,801

Quarterly Housing Unit Change: +303

FIGURE 2

COs Issued By Housing Type, Previous 5 Years

Table 2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Quarter 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

SFD 73 80 79 63 82 66 61 66 79 58 69 55 101 145 89 113 128 139 128 114 199 209

SFA 5 11 0 4 0 2 3 3 5 16 14 28 24 23 22 14 21 24 59 9 27 74

MF 0 0 25 50 55 90 0 0 0 72 0 6 9 3 45 95 93 48 224 11 16 20

Total 78 91 104 117 137 159 64 69 84 146 83 89 134 171 156 222 242 211 411 134 242 303

0

50

100

150

200

250

CO

s Is

sue

d

Quarter by Year

MF

SFA

SFD

Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Total Percent

Single-family Detached (SFD) 4,614 6,621 9,906 8,717 29,858 63%

Single-family Attached (SFA) 2,064 1,477 1,462 1,614 6,617 14%

Multi-Family 2,874 2,964 303 2,199 8,340 17%

Manufactured Homes (MH) 2,052 934 0 0 2,986 6%

Total 11,604 11,996 11,671 12,530 47,801 100%

FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT

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Figure 3 Percentages of Total Housing, by Type and Ward, Fourth Quarter 2017

55%

12%

25%

8%

85%

12%

3%

Single-Family Detached

Single-Family Attached

Multifamily

Manufactured Homes

40%

18%

25%

17%

70%13%

17%

FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT

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III. FUTURE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATE *

* The future residential development estimates process has been altered to provide greater clarity

regarding the construction phasing of future growth in Thornton. Going forward, quarterly reports will

express future development data in the four categories outlined below.

The quarterly estimate of future residential development is determined using the number of

anticipated residential units, which is derived from:

1. Current planning documents

2. Plat records

3. Building Permits (BPs) issued during the previous quarter

As displayed in Figure 4 and Table 4 below, Policy Planning uses four categories to describe the

phases of a development project: Under construction, subdivided, city-zoned, and proposed.

Under Construction — Unbuilt or unfinished units.

Subdivided — Units within an approved subdivision but not yet under construction.

City-Zoned — Units within a zoned area with no further approvals.

Proposed — Units in review process but not approved.

Figure 4

Table 4 Future Housing Units by Type and Stage of Development

**Proposed units are

rounded to reflect the

speculative nature of

unit estimates until a

plat is approved by

the City

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Proposed**

City-Zoned

Subdivided

Under Construction

Number of Units

Project Type

Single-Family Detached 1,811 72% 1,210 81% 2,788 26% 851 23%

Single-Family Attached 327 13% 293 19% 1,321 12% 667 18%

Multifamily 373 15% - - 6,627 62% 2,219 59%

Total 2,511 100% 1,503 100% 10,736 100% 3,737 100%

Proposed**SubdividedUnder Construction City-Zoned

FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT

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IV. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

In 2017, a record of 1,090 CO’s were issued compared to 831 in 2016, and 271 in 2011 at the

height of the Great Recession.

Thornton is the 6th largest city in Colorado and continues to be one of the faster growing

communities. This can be partly attributed to its location close to Denver and its relative

affordability as described in this August 24, 2017 article in the Denver Post: http://

www.denverpost.com/2017/08/24/denver-migration-population-boulder-adams-county/

Most recent and projected near-term residential construction remains single-family detached

units (SFD).

The city experienced a spike in multifamily units early in 2017 similar to the rest of the metro

area. http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/report-denver-is-6th-in-the-nation-

for-new-apartment-construction

In Thornton this was mostly due to the construction of an apartment complex at 144th Avenue

and Grant Street. Overall, the city has a very large number of zoned multifamily units still

unbuilt, but it is not certain if these will come to fruition.

FUTURE HOUSING BY WARD

Table 5 Subdivided and Under Construction Units by Ward and Housing Type

Table 5 displays housing units that are the most likely to be constructed in the near future. More

than half of housing units that are subdivided and under construction are expected in Ward 3, locat-

ed in the northeast quadrant of the city. About one-fourth of the remaining total units are expected

in Ward 4.

The current count of proposed units (shown in Table 4) in the City of Thornton is estimated at 3,737.

Additionally, the current count of city-zoned units in the City of Thornton is 10,736. The location of

new projects depends on factors like land availability, zoning, developer preference, proximity to

the North Metro Rail line, and what the housing market will bear.

SFD SFA MF Total % of Total

Ward 1 - 96 - 96 2%

Ward 2 377 208 145 730 18%

Ward 3 1,832 316 - 2,148 54%

Ward 4 812 - 228 1,040 26%

Total 3,021 620 373 4,014 100%